2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
Friday, January 2, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET
OKC 1–1@GSW 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder | 119 | 131 | +12 |
| GSW Golden State Warriors (home) | 116 | 94 | −22 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | OKC | GSW |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1748 | 1574 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −104 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +15.1 | +2.1 |
| Games played this season | 33 | 34 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 115.8 | 119.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 106.1 | 112.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.1 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 11.4 | 67.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingOKC1748GSW1574
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
OKC1748
- Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
- First 23 games: +90.1
- Last 10 games: −37.2
- W@UTA131–101+4.4
- WPHX138–89+6.9
- WLAC122–101+2.2
- L@MIN107–112−10.2
- WMEM119–103+2.5
- L@SAS110–130−25.5
- LSAS102–117−26.0
- WPHI129–104+3.0
- WATL140–129+1.6
- WPOR124–95+3.9
GSW1574
- Ended last season at 1597 → started this one at 1573
- First 24 games: −18.0
- Last 10 games: +19.5
- W@CHI123–91+18.2
- LMIN120–127−9.3
- L@POR131–136−8.0
- L@PHX98–99−3.4
- WPHX119–116+3.9
- WORL120–97+14.5
- WDAL126–116+4.2
- L@TOR127–141−15.2
- W@BKN120–107+9.1
- W@CHA132–125+5.5
Season scoring marginOKC+15.1GSW+2.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
OKC+15.1
Scores 122.5, allows 107.4 over 33 games: +15.1 a game.
GSW+2.1
Scores 115.6, allows 113.4 over 34 games: +2.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10OKC115.8GSW119.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
OKC115.8scored, +0.7 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.9% | 54.6% | +2.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.6% | 12.3% | +2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.187 | 0.219 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | −2.8 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
GSW119.8scored, +4.8 vs league
| Factor | GSW | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.4% | 54.6% | +4.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.9% | 12.3% | −2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.217 | 0.219 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +3.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10OKC106.1GSW112.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
OKC106.1allowed, −8.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.2% | 54.6% | +2.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 16.1% | 12.3% | +5.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.211 | 0.219 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | +1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
GSW112.7allowed, −2.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.6% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.3% | +0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.198 | 0.219 | +0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 102.1
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
OKC 103.4 and GSW 100.8 → average 102.1 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)
Rotation points missingOKC11.4GSW67.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
OKC11.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 7.4 | 23.3 | 5 |
| Jaylin Williams | 4.0 | 16.3 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
GSW67.0pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 30.1 | 33.7 | 9 |
| Jimmy Butler III | 20.0 | 33.0 | 10 |
| Draymond Green | 9.9 | 25.0 | 8 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 7.0 | 19.2 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestOKC2 daysGSW2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
OKC2days
Last played Dec 31 against POR.
GSW2days
Last played Dec 31 against CHA.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | POR | 124–95 | 44-90 | 16-49 | 20-26 | 14 | – | 117.0 | 88.8 | 106.5 |
| Dec 29 | ATL | 140–129 | 53-98 | 12-32 | 22-23 | 13 | – | 128.4 | 118.3 | 109.0 |
| Dec 28 | PHI | 129–104 | 50-87 | 10-28 | 19-25 | 13 | – | 127.7 | 104.0 | 100.5 |
| Dec 25 | SAS | 102–117 | 37-95 | 11-44 | 17-25 | 7 | – | 104.1 | 121.9 | 97.0 |
| Dec 23 | @SAS | 110–130 | 46-85 | 12-30 | 6-7 | 13 | – | 115.8 | 136.8 | 95.0 |
| Dec 22 | MEM | 119–103 | 46-94 | 15-39 | 12-14 | 13 | – | 113.3 | 98.1 | 105.0 |
| Dec 19 | @MIN | 107–112 | 34-92 | 11-39 | 28-30 | 11 | – | 103.9 | 108.7 | 103.0 |
| Dec 18 | LAC | 122–101 | 48-101 | 13-36 | 13-16 | 8 | – | 114.0 | 94.4 | 107.0 |
| Dec 13 | @SAS | 109–111 | 38-92 | 9-37 | 24-27 | 14 | – | 101.9 | 104.7 | 106.5 |
| Dec 10 | PHX | 138–89 | 52-88 | 22-40 | 12-13 | 14 | – | 131.4 | 85.6 | 104.5 |
GSW
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | @CHA | 132–125 | 46-83 | 24-49 | 16-17 | 19 | – | 130.7 | 123.8 | 101.0 |
| Dec 29 | @BKN | 120–107 | 41-77 | 10-33 | 28-34 | 13 | – | 125.0 | 110.3 | 96.5 |
| Dec 28 | @TOR | 127–141 | 43-96 | 16-44 | 25-28 | 20 | – | 113.4 | 125.9 | 101.4 |
| Dec 25 | DAL | 126–116 | 44-99 | 14-50 | 24-26 | 11 | – | 118.9 | 108.4 | 106.5 |
| Dec 22 | ORL | 120–97 | 46-89 | 11-37 | 17-24 | 13 | – | 121.2 | 98.0 | 99.0 |
| Dec 20 | PHX | 119–116 | 42-92 | 17-49 | 18-24 | 20 | – | 117.8 | 114.9 | 101.0 |
| Dec 18 | @PHX | 98–99 | 35-89 | 12-42 | 16-18 | 20 | – | 97.0 | 99.0 | 100.5 |
| Dec 14 | @POR | 131–136 | 44-87 | 24-47 | 19-23 | 18 | – | 126.0 | 128.3 | 105.0 |
| Dec 12 | MIN | 120–127 | 44-96 | 15-46 | 17-22 | 13 | – | 117.6 | 122.1 | 103.0 |
| Dec 7 | @CHI | 123–91 | 44-88 | 22-47 | 13-19 | 15 | – | 130.9 | 95.8 | 94.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | OKC | GSW |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 131 | 94 |
| Field goals | 48–92 · 52.2% | 32–90 · 35.6% |
| Three-pointers | 16–38 · 42.1% | 13–44 · 29.5% |
| Free throws | 19–19 · 100.0% | 17–23 · 73.9% |
| Rebounds | 51 | 43 |
| Assists | 34 | 23 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 16 |
| Steals | 10 | 8 |
| Blocks | 5 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Golden State Warriors
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (GSW) | −3 | −37 | −34 |
| Total points | 235 | 225 | −10 |
| OKC points | 119 | 131 | +12 |
| GSW points | 116 | 94 | −22 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2 2025-26 | OKC at GSW | OKC 124 – 112 GSW |
| Nov 11 2025-26 | GSW at OKC | GSW 102 – 126 OKC |
| Jan 29 2024-25 | OKC at GSW | OKC 109 – 116 GSW |
| Nov 27 2024-25 | OKC at GSW | OKC 105 – 101 GSW |
| Nov 10 2024-25 | GSW at OKC | GSW 127 – 116 OKC |