2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
IND 2–6@MEM 6–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 114 | 107 | −7 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) | 120 | 103 | −17 |
Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 6.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 107 | 103 |
| Field goals | 40–88 · 45.5% | 41–91 · 45.1% |
| Three-pointers | 12–37 · 32.4% | 12–44 · 27.3% |
| Free throws | 15–17 · 88.2% | 9–15 · 60.0% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 48 |
| Assists | 22 | 28 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 19 |
| Steals | 10 | 8 |
| Blocks | 7 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Memphis Grizzlies
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MEM) | +6 | −4 | −10 |
| Total points | 234 | 210 | −24 |
| IND points | 114 | 107 | −7 |
| MEM points | 120 | 103 | −17 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Indiana Pacers
- Out Ben Sheppard · Left Meniscus Surgery
- Out Johnny Furphy
- Out T.J. McConnell · Right Hamstring Strain
- Out Tyrese Haliburton · Left Hamstring Strain
- Questionable Ivica Zubac · Left Ankle Sprain
- Questionable Kelly Oubre Jr. · Left Calf Contusion
- Questionable Obi Toppin · Lumbar Strain
Memphis Grizzlies
- Out Scotty Pippen Jr.
- Questionable Quinten Post · Right Ankle Sprain
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 2025-26 | MEM at IND | MEM 125 – 106 IND |
| Oct 25 2025-26 | IND at MEM | IND 103 – 128 MEM |
| Feb 20 2024-25 | MEM at IND | MEM 113 – 127 IND |
| Dec 1 2024-25 | IND at MEM | IND 121 – 136 MEM |
| Jan 28 2023-24 | MEM at IND | MEM 110 – 116 IND |