The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 17

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder

Saturday, December 17, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 1–1@OKC 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 72 percent, OKC 28 percent. MEM Grizzlies 72% proj. 119 · final 109 OKC Thunder · home 28% proj. 110 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 119 109 −10
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 110 115 +5

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMOKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16261413
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −144
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.1−1.9
Games played this season 2829
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.0108.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 104.8111.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.019.4
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1626OKC1413

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1626

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
  2. First 18 games: −40.1
  3. Last 10 games: +68.6
  • WNOP132–111+14.4
  • W@NYK127–123+6.1
  • L@MIN101–109−9.5
  • WPHI117–109+6.8
  • W@DET122–112+5.7
  • WMIA101–93+6.3
  • WOKC123–102+6.3
  • WDET114–103+3.1
  • WATL128–103+9.4
  • WMIL142–101+20.0

OKC1413

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1330 → started this one at 1373
  2. First 19 games: +42.2
  3. Last 10 games: −2.8
  • L@HOU105–118−12.1
  • L@NOP101–105−2.2
  • WSAS119–111+6.1
  • W@MIN135–128+14.1
  • W@ATL121–114+14.5
  • L@MEM102–123−6.3
  • L@CLE102–110−3.9
  • L@DAL114–121−3.6
  • LMIA108–110−4.4
  • LMIN110–112−5.0
Season scoring marginMEM+5.1OKC−1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+5.1

Scores 116.5, allows 111.3 over 28 games: +5.1 a game.

OKC−1.9

Scores 115.3, allows 117.2 over 29 games: −1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM119.0OKC108.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

MEM119.0scored, +6.7 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.0%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.6%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%23.8%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.210−0.6
Everything else+1.3

OKC108.4scored, −3.9 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.0%−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.6%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10MEM104.8OKC111.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

MEM104.8allowed, −7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.6%54.0%+8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.6%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2240.210−0.4
Everything else+0.1

OKC111.5allowed, −0.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.0%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.6%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%23.8%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.210+0.9
Everything else+0.8
Pace, last 10average 102.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 101.6 and OKC 103.2 → average 102.4 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0OKC19.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-17 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC19.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl8.624.78
Ousmane Dieng6.217.05
Darius Bazley4.617.17

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-17 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysOKC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Dec 15 against MIL.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 16 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 15MIL142–10156-10212-3218-23714139.298.1102.5
Dec 12ATL128–10350-8313-3215-18225123.1100.0103.5
Dec 9DET114–10344-919-3217-321412108.698.1105.0
Dec 7OKC123–10248-9414-3813-161410117.197.1105.0
Dec 5MIA101–9342-908-329-9114106.396.995.5
Dec 4@DET122–11243-9215-3521-291312119.6108.7102.5
Dec 2PHI117–10942-9711-3022-281219117.0109.0100.0
Nov 30@MIN101–10937-879-2618-302420100.0106.9101.5
Nov 27@NYK127–12346-9512-3223-311016128.3124.299.0
Nov 25NOP132–11147-9118-3820-271413130.7108.8101.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 16MIN110–11241-8811-3717-21229106.8108.7103.0
Dec 14MIA108–11041-829-2417-23147110.2111.198.5
Dec 12@DAL114–12142-8810-3120-211310115.2121.099.5
Dec 10@CLE102–11038-8310-2916-20107106.3115.895.5
Dec 7@MEM102–12334-9214-3820-23181497.1117.1105.0
Dec 5@ATL121–11443-9512-3423-241614112.0104.6108.5
Dec 3@MIN135–12848-9311-2628-352113119.5112.3113.5
Nov 30SAS119–11148-949-2714-211115119.0108.8101.0
Nov 28@NOP101–10534-9212-3821-23191899.0102.9102.0
Nov 26@HOU105–11838-9710-4419-23151699.1112.4105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
15 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +6 for OKC
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
296th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMOKC
Final score109115
Field goals34–90 · 37.8%38–92 · 41.3%
Three-pointers12–45 · 26.7%19–45 · 42.2%
Free throws29–37 · 78.4%20–31 · 64.5%
Rebounds5353
Assists1529
Turnovers99
Steals57
Blocks50

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)−9+6+15
Total points229224−5
MEM points119109−10
OKC points110115+5

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 15 vs MIL W 142–101
Dec 12 vs ATL W 128–103
Dec 9 vs DET W 114–103
Dec 7 vs OKC W 123–102
Dec 5 vs MIA W 101–93

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Dec 16 vs MIN L 110–112
Dec 14 vs MIA L 108–110
Dec 12 at DAL L 114–121
Dec 10 at CLE L 102–110
Dec 7 at MEM L 102–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 7 2022-23 OKC at MEM OKC 102 – 123 MEM
Nov 18 2022-23 OKC at MEM OKC 110 – 121 MEM
Mar 13 2021-22 MEM at OKC MEM 125 – 118 OKC
Dec 20 2021-22 OKC at MEM OKC 102 – 99 MEM
Dec 2 2021-22 OKC at MEM OKC 79 – 152 MEM