The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 15

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies

Thursday, December 15, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 0–0@MEM 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 40 percent, MEM 60 percent. MIL Bucks 40% proj. 110 · final 101 MEM Grizzlies · home 60% proj. 114 · final 142
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 110 101 −9
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 114 142 +28

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15961606
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +80
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.0+3.8
Games played this season 2727
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.2115.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.2105.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 20.60.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1596MEM1606

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1596

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1595 → started this one at 1571
  2. First 17 games: −11.8
  3. Last 10 games: +36.9
  • WCLE117–102+10.7
  • WDAL124–115+6.9
  • W@NYK109–103+7.6
  • LLAL129–133−11.7
  • W@CHA105–96+7.7
  • W@ORL109–102+3.9
  • WSAC126–113+7.0
  • W@DAL106–105+4.9
  • L@HOU92–97−11.6
  • WGSW128–111+11.5

MEM1606

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
  2. First 17 games: −29.8
  3. Last 10 games: +38.3
  • LSAC109–113−10.3
  • WNOP132–111+14.4
  • W@NYK127–123+6.1
  • L@MIN101–109−9.5
  • WPHI117–109+6.8
  • W@DET122–112+5.7
  • WMIA101–93+6.3
  • WOKC123–102+6.3
  • WDET114–103+3.1
  • WATL128–103+9.4
Season scoring marginMIL+5.0MEM+3.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+5.0

Scores 112.6, allows 107.6 over 27 games: +5.0 a game.

MEM+3.8

Scores 115.5, allows 111.7 over 27 games: +3.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL115.2MEM115.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

MIL115.2scored, +3.0 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.0%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.7%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%23.8%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.209−0.2
Everything else−0.1

MEM115.2scored, +3.0 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.0%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.7%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%23.8%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.209−0.5
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10MIL108.2MEM105.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.2).

MIL108.2allowed, −4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.0%+5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)9.7%12.7%−4.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.209+0.6
Everything else+1.4

MEM105.4allowed, −6.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.3%54.0%+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.7%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%23.8%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.209−0.5
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 99.6 and MEM 102.2 → average 100.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMIL20.6MEM0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL20.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jrue Holiday20.634.18

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-15 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-15 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysMEM3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Dec 13 against GSW.

MEM3days

Last played Dec 12 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 13GSW128–11145-8212-2926-322112118.5102.8108.0
Dec 11@HOU92–9733-9012-4314-18151393.999.098.0
Dec 9@DAL106–10538-8711-3219-231513110.4107.197.0
Dec 7SAC126–11346-9614-3320-24717131.3117.796.0
Dec 5@ORL109–10238-8513-4020-26177104.8100.0103.0
Dec 3@CHA105–9639-8312-3215-19218100.091.4105.0
Dec 2LAL129–13350-9417-4312-15910130.3133.099.5
Nov 30@NYK109–10339-9010-3521-26514114.7107.395.5
Nov 27DAL124–11548-8617-3711-15138127.8116.298.0
Nov 25CLE117–10242-8315-3218-25138120.6107.496.0

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 12ATL128–10350-8313-3215-18225123.1100.0103.5
Dec 9DET114–10344-919-3217-321412108.698.1105.0
Dec 7OKC123–10248-9414-3813-161410117.197.1105.0
Dec 5MIA101–9342-908-329-9114106.396.995.5
Dec 4@DET122–11243-9215-3521-291312119.6108.7102.5
Dec 2PHI117–10942-9711-3022-281219117.0109.0100.0
Nov 30@MIN101–10937-879-2618-302420100.0106.9101.5
Nov 27@NYK127–12346-9512-3223-311016128.3124.299.0
Nov 25NOP132–11147-9118-3820-271413130.7108.8101.5
Nov 22SAC109–11341-918-3019-301813100.9104.6108.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
60%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
MEM was the forecast favorite
37 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual +41 for MEM
759th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILMEM
Final score101142
Field goals35–94 · 37.2%56–102 · 54.9%
Three-pointers13–50 · 26.0%12–32 · 37.5%
Free throws18–27 · 66.7%18–23 · 78.3%
Rebounds3956
Assists2230
Turnovers97
Steals55
Blocks17

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+4+41+37
Total points224243+19
MIL points110101−9
MEM points114142+28

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 13 vs GSW W 128–111
Dec 11 at HOU L 92–97
Dec 9 at DAL W 106–105
Dec 7 vs SAC W 126–113
Dec 5 at ORL W 109–102

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 12 vs ATL W 128–103
Dec 9 vs DET W 114–103
Dec 7 vs OKC W 123–102
Dec 5 vs MIA W 101–93
Dec 4 at DET W 122–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 26 2021-22 MIL at MEM MIL 102 – 127 MEM
Jan 19 2021-22 MEM at MIL MEM 114 – 126 MIL