The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 7

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics

Saturday, December 7, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 2–0@BOS 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 23 percent, BOS 77 percent. MEM Grizzlies 23% proj. 110 · final 127 BOS Celtics · home 77% proj. 121 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 110 127 +17
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 121 121 ±0

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15171721
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +274
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.0+10.1
Games played this season 2323
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.0120.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.1111.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 6.711.1
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1517BOS1721

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1517

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
  2. First 13 games: +94.7
  3. Last 10 games: +57.9
  • WDEN105–90+16.9
  • LDEN110–122−10.3
  • WPHI117–111+4.8
  • W@CHI142–131+13.0
  • WPOR123–98+9.7
  • WDET131–111+7.6
  • WNOP120–109+4.9
  • WIND136–121+9.0
  • L@DAL116–121−2.9
  • WSAC115–110+5.2

BOS1721

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 13 games: +19.3
  3. Last 10 games: +20.3
  • WTOR126–123+0.6
  • WCLE120–117+3.0
  • W@WAS108–96+2.1
  • WMIN107–105+1.9
  • WLAC126–94+8.5
  • W@CHI138–129+3.9
  • L@CLE111–115−7.8
  • WMIA108–89+4.7
  • WDET130–120+1.4
  • WMIL111–105+2.0
Season scoring marginMEM+8.0BOS+10.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+8.0

Scores 121.1, allows 113.1 over 23 games: +8.0 a game.

BOS+10.1

Scores 120.1, allows 110.0 over 23 games: +10.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM116.0BOS120.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

MEM116.0scored, +3.4 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.1%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.5%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%24.7%+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.197−0.3
Everything else−0.5

BOS120.1scored, +7.5 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.1%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)9.4%12.5%+4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%24.7%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.197−0.7
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10MEM107.1BOS111.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

MEM107.1allowed, −5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.1%+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.5%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%24.7%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.197−0.6
Everything else+0.1

BOS111.2allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.1%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.5%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.6%24.7%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.197+1.0
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 101.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 104.8 and BOS 97.6 → average 101.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingMEM6.7BOS11.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM6.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Luke Kennard6.720.19

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-07 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BOS11.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Al Horford11.131.47

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-07 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysBOS1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Dec 5 against SAC.

BOS1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 6 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 5SAC115–11038-8013-3826-32229107.5103.8106.5
Dec 3@DAL116–12145-9713-4013-141913109.4112.0107.0
Dec 1IND136–12149-9316-4622-27108124.8112.0108.5
Nov 29NOP120–10947-9612-4114-171514115.4105.8103.5
Nov 27DET131–11151-9317-4612-161610123.6104.7106.0
Nov 25POR123–9843-8712-2825-341816118.394.2104.0
Nov 23@CHI142–13155-9619-4213-201113137.9126.0103.5
Nov 20PHI117–11141-8519-4316-16199117.0111.0100.0
Nov 19DEN110–12241-1039-3819-31221998.2108.9112.0
Nov 17DEN105–9041-9113-3910-121210108.292.897.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 6MIL111–10540-8717-5314-1667118.1110.594.5
Dec 4DET130–12045-9421-5319-251614128.7117.6101.5
Dec 2MIA108–8939-8919-5511-131414112.591.896.5
Dec 1@CLE111–11538-9517-4918-1989106.7112.7103.0
Nov 29@CHI138–12949-9823-5417-23911131.4124.0104.5
Nov 25LAC126–9445-8822-5114-20118127.395.998.5
Nov 24MIN107–10537-8721-5612-1568118.9116.790.0
Nov 22@WAS108–9636-8511-4625-321210103.893.2103.5
Nov 19CLE120–11744-8622-4110-14139127.7123.294.5
Nov 16TOR126–12344-9921-6117-19914126.0126.889.2

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
23%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
17 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −6 for BOS
26th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
269th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMBOS
Final score127121
Field goals47–94 · 50.0%42–105 · 40.0%
Three-pointers15–33 · 45.5%18–60 · 30.0%
Free throws18–23 · 78.3%19–28 · 67.9%
Rebounds5251
Assists2526
Turnovers1313
Steals136
Blocks77

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+11−6−17
Total points231248+17
MEM points110127+17
BOS points121121±0

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM31352833–127
BOS27273532–121

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 5 vs SAC W 115–110
Dec 3 at DAL L 116–121
Dec 1 vs IND W 136–121
Nov 29 vs NOP W 120–109
Nov 27 vs DET W 131–111

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 6 vs MIL W 111–105
Dec 4 vs DET W 130–120
Dec 2 vs MIA W 108–89
Dec 1 at CLE L 111–115
Nov 29 at CHI W 138–129

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 4 2023-24 MEM at BOS MEM 91 – 131 BOS
Nov 19 2023-24 BOS at MEM BOS 102 – 100 MEM
Feb 12 2022-23 MEM at BOS MEM 109 – 119 BOS
Nov 7 2022-23 BOS at MEM BOS 109 – 106 MEM
Apr 10 2021-22 BOS at MEM BOS 139 – 110 MEM