2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies

Monday, February 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

MIN 1–5@MEM 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	120	128	+8
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home)	111	137	+26

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	MEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1614	1421
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−123
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.2	−2.3
Games played this season	50	47
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.2	112.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.9	116.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	41.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1614MEM1421

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1614

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 40 games: −27.7
Last 10 games: −0.5

W@MIL139–106+16.5
L@HOU105–110−6.4
L@SAS123–126−4.9
L@UTA122–127−12.7
LCHI115–120−13.3
LGSW85–111−28.6
WGSW108–83+15.4
W@DAL118–105+9.8
WOKC123–111+14.1
W@MEM131–114+9.6

MEM1421

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
First 37 games: −43.8
Last 10 games: −54.2

LOKC116–117−2.1
WBKN103–98+3.6
LMEM111–118±0.0
W@MEM118–111±0.0
LATL122–124−6.4
LNOP127–133−14.6
L@HOU99–108−3.7
LCHA97–112−12.0
L@NOP106–114−9.4
LMIN114–131−9.6

Season scoring marginMIN+5.2MEM−2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+5.2

Scores 119.3, allows 114.1 over 50 games: +5.2 a game.

MEM−2.3

Scores 114.4, allows 116.6 over 47 games: −2.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN114.2MEM112.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

MIN114.2scored, −0.4 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.4%	+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.211	−0.6
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MEM112.9scored, −1.7 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.4%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.211	−0.7
Everything else			+2.9

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MIN108.9MEM116.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).

MIN108.9allowed, −5.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.4%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.211	+0.3
Everything else			+2.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MEM116.9allowed, +2.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.4%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.211	+0.7
Everything else			−3.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 102.5 and MEM 99.3 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0MEM41.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-02-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MEM41.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ja Morant	23.5	29.2	2
Santi Aldama	14.8	29.0	5
John Konchar	3.5	18.5	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-02-02 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Jan 31 against MEM.

MEM2days

Last played Jan 31 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 31	@MEM	131–114	47-89	18-37	19-24	14	–	129.7	111.8	101.5
Jan 29	OKC	123–111	45-89	22-47	11-18	19	–	124.2	113.3	98.5
Jan 28	@DAL	118–105	43-94	12-34	20-27	12	–	112.4	100.0	105.0
Jan 26	GSW	108–83	37-81	14-35	20-26	22	–	100.9	77.6	107.0
Jan 25	GSW	85–111	30-79	13-38	12-20	25	–	82.5	106.7	103.5
Jan 22	CHI	115–120	43-93	15-41	14-15	14	–	110.6	114.3	104.5
Jan 20	@UTA	122–127	44-100	14-47	20-27	11	–	116.2	121.0	105.0
Jan 17	@SAS	123–126	42-90	14-34	25-28	11	–	123.0	127.3	99.5
Jan 16	@HOU	105–110	37-80	11-30	20-35	14	–	107.1	112.2	98.0
Jan 13	@MIL	139–106	55-92	22-42	7-12	15	–	135.0	105.0	102.0

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 31	MIN	114–131	44-90	10-37	16-24	14	–	111.8	129.7	101.5
Jan 30	@NOP	106–114	40-93	12-41	14-15	19	–	107.1	112.9	100.0
Jan 28	CHA	97–112	37-81	14-40	9-12	12	–	105.4	121.7	92.0
Jan 26	@HOU	99–108	39-105	7-37	14-17	13	–	101.0	108.0	99.0
Jan 23	NOP	127–133	45-92	18-47	19-22	19	–	121.0	126.7	105.0
Jan 21	ATL	122–124	43-93	12-35	24-27	17	–	117.3	118.1	104.5
Jan 18	@ORL	126–109	48-91	13-35	17-25	12	–	123.5	109.0	101.0
Jan 15	ORL	111–118	38-83	17-36	18-21	16	–	109.9	116.8	101.0
Jan 11	BKN	103–98	37-88	11-34	18-18	14	–	113.2	106.5	91.5
Jan 9	OKC	116–117	41-88	14-41	20-24	17	–	118.4	119.4	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

18 pts

margin miss

forecast −9, actual +9 for MEM

61st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

262nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	MEM
Final score	128	137
Field goals	44–90 · 48.9%	44–88 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	16–41 · 39.0%	19–41 · 46.3%
Free throws	24–31 · 77.4%	30–35 · 85.7%
Rebounds	40	45
Assists	24	31
Turnovers	9	9
Steals	4	5
Blocks	7	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)	−9	+9	+18
Total points	231	265	+34
MIN points	120	128	+8
MEM points	111	137	+26

Recent form before this game