2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks

Saturday, October 22, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 0–0@DAL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	109	96	−13
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	108	137	+29

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1605	1582
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+48
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.2	+2.6
Games played this season	2	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.8	112.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.0	113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1605DAL1582

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1605

Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
This season's 2 games: +6.8

WNYK115–112+2.9
W@HOU129–122+3.9

DAL1582

Ended last season at 1615 → started this one at 1586
This season's 1 game: −3.9

L@PHX105–107−3.9

Season scoring marginMEM+5.2DAL+2.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+5.2

Scores 122.0, allows 117.0 over 2 games: +5.0 a game.

10% this season (+5.0) + 90% last season (+5.3) = +5.2

DAL+2.6

Scores 105.0, allows 107.0 over 1 game: −2.0 a game.

5% this season (−2.0) + 95% last season (+2.8) = +2.6

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.8DAL112.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

MEM109.8scored, −1.5 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.0%	53.3%	−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.8%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.3%	23.0%	+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.196	−0.3
Everything else			−0.7

DAL112.6scored, +1.2 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	53.3%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	11.8%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	15.8%	23.0%	−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.245	0.196	+1.4
Everything else			−1.9

Defensive rating, last 10MEM108.0DAL113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

MEM108.0allowed, −3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	53.3%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.2%	11.8%	+3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.6%	23.0%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.196	+0.7
Everything else			−1.3

DAL113.0allowed, +1.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	53.3%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	11.8%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	23.0%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.196	+0.1
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 98.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.2 and DAL 94.6 → average 98.4 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMEM1 daysDAL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 21 against HOU.

DAL3days

Last played Oct 19 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 21	@HOU	129–122	45-98	19-42	20-29	12	17	126.5	118.4	102.5
Oct 19	NYK	115–112	42-108	17-50	14-23	13	20	107.5	105.7	96.5
May 13	@GSW	96–110	34-96	15-36	13-20	6	10	96.0	110.0	100.0
May 11	GSW	134–95	47-99	18-41	22-30	9	18	130.1	92.2	103.0
May 9	@GSW	98–101	40-96	9-35	9-15	12	10	94.2	97.1	104.0
May 7	@GSW	112–142	40-92	16-43	16-21	10	7	109.8	137.9	102.5
May 3	GSW	106–101	36-91	14-45	20-21	14	13	103.9	98.1	102.5
May 1	GSW	116–117	41-95	16-40	18-24	14	16	112.6	114.7	102.5
Apr 29	@MIN	114–106	40-86	15-32	19-24	18	16	114.0	106.0	100.0
Apr 26	MIN	111–109	39-94	7-28	26-39	16	18	103.7	100.0	108.0

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 19	@PHX	105–107	35-75	14-35	21-34	12	5	110.5	113.8	94.5
May 26	@GSW	110–120	37-82	17-42	19-25	7	6	119.6	129.0	92.5
May 24	GSW	119–109	41-82	20-43	17-22	8	4	122.7	111.2	97.5
May 22	GSW	100–109	30-75	13-45	27-34	7	7	109.9	117.2	92.0
May 20	@GSW	117–126	37-78	21-45	22-29	12	4	118.2	128.6	98.5
May 18	@GSW	87–112	31-86	11-48	14-21	13	9	90.6	115.5	96.5
May 15	@PHX	123–90	46-81	19-39	12-12	11	6	132.3	97.8	92.5
May 12	PHX	113–86	35-77	16-39	27-36	6	7	120.2	91.5	94.0
May 10	@PHX	80–110	27-71	8-32	18-27	16	6	85.1	117.0	94.0
May 8	PHX	111–101	38-85	20-44	15-19	11	10	116.8	108.6	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner

the forecast favored MEM

42 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +41 for DAL

403rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

5th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	DAL
Final score	96	137
Field goals	34–79 · 43.0%	45–90 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	9–33 · 27.3%	17–39 · 43.6%
Free throws	19–24 · 79.2%	30–36 · 83.3%
Rebounds	29	52
Assists	20	23
Turnovers	17	15
Steals	4	7
Blocks	8	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	−1	+41	+42
Total points	217	233	+16
MEM points	109	96	−13
DAL points	108	137	+29

Recent form before this game