2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies

Sunday, April 13, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 3–2@MEM 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	116	97	−19
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home)	117	132	+15

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 54% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DAL	MEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1444	1532
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+158
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.8	+4.5
Games played this season	81	81
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.1	115.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.7	115.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	49.1	117.4
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1444MEM1532

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1444

Ended last season at 1675 → started this one at 1631
First 71 games: −193.2
Last 10 games: +6.6

W@BKN120–101+14.4
L@NYK113–128−6.4
W@ORL101–92+13.0
W@CHI120–119+6.1
LBKN109–113−12.3
WATL120–118+3.9
L@LAC91–114−6.5
L@LAC104–135−7.5
LLAL97–112−10.3
WTOR124–102+12.2

MEM1532

Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
First 71 games: +184.9
Last 10 games: −17.1

W@UTA140–103+12.5
L@OKC104–125−4.2
LLAL127–134−11.9
LBOS103–117−8.1
LGSW125–134−10.5
W@MIA110–108+5.8
W@DET109–103+11.5
W@CHA124–100+7.0
LMIN125–141−13.2
L@DEN109–117−6.0

Season scoring marginDAL−0.8MEM+4.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL−0.8

Scores 114.4, allows 115.2 over 81 games: −0.8 a game.

MEM+4.5

Scores 121.6, allows 117.1 over 81 games: +4.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL110.1MEM115.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).

DAL110.1scored, −3.7 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.4%	+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.0%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.5%	25.2%	−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.193	+0.6
Everything else			−1.6

MEM115.6scored, +1.9 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.4%	+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.0%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	25.2%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.193	−0.2
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10DAL113.7MEM115.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).

DAL113.7allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	54.4%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	25.2%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.193	+0.8
Everything else			+1.8

MEM115.7allowed, +2.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.4%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.0%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.2%	25.2%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.193	−1.2
Everything else			−1.9

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 99.8 and MEM 102.0 → average 100.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingDAL49.1MEM117.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL49.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Davis	19.2	29.4	8
P.J. Washington	13.9	30.2	7
Klay Thompson	10.5	24.3	10
Dereck Lively II	5.5	16.1	4

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-13 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MEM117.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ja Morant	28.4	32.6	7
Desmond Bane	21.0	33.4	10
Jaren Jackson Jr.	20.7	31.8	10
Scotty Pippen Jr.	13.3	25.7	10
Santi Aldama	10.8	27.6	10
Zach Edey	9.7	26.1	10
Jaylen Wells	9.0	26.5	8
Luke Kennard	4.4	21.9	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-13 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Apr 11 against TOR.

MEM2days

Last played Apr 11 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 11	TOR	124–102	49-89	15-34	11-17	17	12	119.2	98.1	104.0
Apr 9	LAL	97–112	36-72	9-26	16-23	19	9	103.2	117.9	94.5
Apr 5	@LAC	104–135	34-78	7-27	29-38	15	5	104.0	135.0	100.0
Apr 4	@LAC	91–114	35-77	4-20	17-26	17	5	91.9	115.2	99.0
Apr 2	ATL	120–118	44-83	15-33	17-21	13	4	116.5	114.6	103.0
Mar 31	BKN	109–113	41-86	10-30	17-29	8	9	114.7	117.7	95.5
Mar 29	@CHI	120–119	47-101	9-30	17-21	6	4	110.1	110.2	108.5
Mar 27	@ORL	101–92	37-78	11-22	16-22	14	4	104.1	94.8	97.0
Mar 25	@NYK	113–128	43-80	6-19	21-25	16	3	109.7	126.7	102.0
Mar 24	@BKN	120–101	49-87	10-31	12-16	10	8	127.7	106.3	94.5

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 11	@DEN	109–117	41-91	14-43	13-19	12	7	105.8	114.7	102.5
Apr 10	MIN	125–141	46-89	18-36	15-21	15	8	121.4	138.2	102.5
Apr 8	@CHA	124–100	42-93	18-55	22-26	13	14	125.3	101.0	99.0
Apr 5	@DET	109–103	39-94	9-32	22-29	14	17	104.8	99.0	104.0
Apr 3	@MIA	110–108	40-85	16-38	14-17	18	12	112.2	109.1	98.5
Apr 1	GSW	125–134	44-92	18-44	19-22	16	8	116.8	126.4	106.5
Mar 31	BOS	103–117	41-92	11-44	10-16	10	5	101.0	113.6	102.5
Mar 29	LAL	127–134	50-95	14-32	13-18	12	9	123.3	128.8	103.5
Mar 27	@OKC	104–125	33-79	16-42	22-23	18	5	100.0	120.2	104.0
Mar 25	@UTA	140–103	52-98	20-45	16-18	8	17	145.8	106.2	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

54%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

MEM was the forecast favorite

34 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +35 for MEM

509th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

23rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.61 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	MEM
Final score	97	132
Field goals	38–87 · 43.7%	52–104 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	5–28 · 17.9%	15–40 · 37.5%
Free throws	16–22 · 72.7%	13–15 · 86.7%
Rebounds	38	53
Assists	20	31
Turnovers	18	11
Steals	6	13
Blocks	3	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)	+1	+35	+34
Total points	233	229	−4
DAL points	116	97	−19
MEM points	117	132	+15

Recent form before this game