The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 22

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors

Monday, January 22, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 2–0@TOR 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 25 percent, TOR 75 percent. MEM Grizzlies 25% proj. 114 · final 108 TOR Raptors · home 75% proj. 125 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 114 108 −6
TOR Toronto Raptors (home) 125 100 −25

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMTOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14431465
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +92
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.8−1.9
Games played this season 4243
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.3117.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.5120.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 65.911.7
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1443TOR1465

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1443

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1557 → started this one at 1543
  2. First 32 games: −124.7
  3. Last 10 games: +24.7
  • WSAS106–98+3.7
  • LTOR111–116−7.7
  • W@LAL127–113+20.6
  • W@PHX121–115+12.4
  • W@DAL120–103+21.9
  • LLAC119–128−7.1
  • LNYK94–106−8.6
  • WGSW116–107+8.3
  • L@MIN103–118−4.6
  • L@CHI96–125−14.2

TOR1465

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1564 → started this one at 1548
  2. First 33 games: −82.2
  3. Last 10 games: −0.4
  • W@MEM116–111+7.7
  • L@SAC130–135−4.3
  • W@GSW133–118+19.5
  • L@LAL131–132−3.2
  • L@LAC120–126−3.2
  • L@UTA113–145−15.0
  • LBOS96–105−4.9
  • WMIA121–97+20.8
  • LCHI110–116−10.0
  • L@NYK100–126−7.8
Season scoring marginMEM−5.8TOR−1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−5.8

Scores 107.8, allows 113.6 over 42 games: −5.8 a game.

TOR−1.9

Scores 114.7, allows 116.6 over 43 games: −1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM111.3TOR117.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MEM111.3scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.7%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.6%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%24.5%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2100.205+0.2
Everything else−0.9

TOR117.0scored, +1.9 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.7%+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.6%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.8%24.5%−3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.205−0.6
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10MEM113.5TOR120.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

MEM113.5allowed, −1.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.7%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%11.6%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.4%24.5%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.205+0.5
Everything else−0.5

TOR120.5allowed, +5.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%54.7%−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.6%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%24.5%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.205+0.6
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 99.8 and TOR 100.3 → average 100.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingMEM65.9TOR11.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM65.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant25.034.93
Desmond Bane23.334.66
Marcus Smart17.632.25

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-22 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

TOR11.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jakob Poeltl11.728.93

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-22 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysTOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Jan 20 against CHI.

TOR2days

Last played Jan 20 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 20@CHI96–12532-7513-4219-2315397.0127.698.5
Jan 18@MIN103–11839-8514-3411-17148107.3122.996.0
Jan 15GSW116–10732-8620-5432-401111114.9105.9101.0
Jan 13NYK94–10636-879-3813-1512994.9108.298.5
Jan 12LAC119–12841-9518-4419-27916124.0133.396.0
Jan 9@DAL120–10344-9114-3718-211616121.2105.198.5
Jan 7@PHX121–11543-9717-4918-241715114.2108.5106.0
Jan 5@LAL127–11344-8223-4516-20176124.5109.7102.5
Jan 3TOR111–11640-9415-4216-19109106.7113.7103.0
Jan 2SAS106–9837-8012-3820-25158108.2100.098.0

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 20@NYK100–12638-9211-3413-23101198.0123.5102.0
Jan 18CHI110–11642-8310-3816-20147113.4118.497.5
Jan 17MIA121–9745-8820-3811-181013130.1103.293.5
Jan 15BOS96–10538-954-3216-217994.1105.0101.0
Jan 12@UTA113–14535-8117-3426-37134111.9140.8102.0
Jan 10@LAC120–12646-8412-3016-18142125.0131.396.0
Jan 9@LAL131–13253-9417-358-13124124.8125.7105.0
Jan 7@GSW133–11855-9415-338-1478134.3120.498.5
Jan 5@SAC130–13547-8713-3723-27147125.0129.8104.0
Jan 3@MEM116–11141-8512-2622-27127113.7106.7103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
25%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored TOR
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −8 for TOR
12th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
225th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.38 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMTOR
Final score108100
Field goals44–95 · 46.3%35–79 · 44.3%
Three-pointers13–34 · 38.2%8–23 · 34.8%
Free throws7–12 · 58.3%22–23 · 95.7%
Rebounds4747
Assists3031
Turnovers1517
Steals117
Blocks88

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)+11−8−19
Total points239208−31
MEM points114108−6
TOR points125100−25

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM30233223–108
TOR25212529–100

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Jan 20 at CHI L 96–125
Jan 18 at MIN L 103–118
Jan 15 vs GSW W 116–107
Jan 13 vs NYK L 94–106
Jan 12 vs LAC L 119–128

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Jan 20 at NYK L 100–126
Jan 18 vs CHI L 110–116
Jan 17 vs MIA W 121–97
Jan 15 vs BOS L 96–105
Jan 12 at UTA L 113–145

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 3 2023-24 TOR at MEM TOR 116 – 111 MEM
Feb 5 2022-23 TOR at MEM TOR 106 – 103 MEM
Dec 29 2022-23 MEM at TOR MEM 119 – 106 TOR
Nov 30 2021-22 MEM at TOR MEM 98 – 91 TOR
Nov 24 2021-22 TOR at MEM TOR 126 – 113 MEM