2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, April 1, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
IND 5–1@CHI 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 117 | 145 | +28 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls (home) | 124 | 126 | +2 |
Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1308 | 1371 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +134 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −8.4 | −4.7 |
| Games played this season | 75 | 75 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 118.8 | 114.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 126.4 | 121.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.4 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 68.8 | 10.4 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1308CHI1371
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1308
- Ended last season at 1673 → started this one at 1630
- First 65 games: −331.8
- Last 10 games: +10.0
- LPHX108–123−6.6
- LNYK92–101−2.5
- L@MIL123–134−5.6
- L@NYK110–136−2.1
- LPOR119–127−5.4
- L@SAS119–134−1.0
- W@ORL128–126+11.6
- LLAL130–137−2.8
- LLAC113–114−1.6
- WMIA135–118+26.0
CHI1371
- Ended last season at 1537 → started this one at 1528
- First 65 games: −141.8
- Last 10 games: −14.8
- L@LAL130–142−3.9
- L@LAC108–119−3.1
- WMEM132–107+14.2
- LTOR109–139−17.4
- LCLE110–115−3.4
- WHOU132–124+13.5
- L@PHI137–157−7.8
- L@OKC113–131−2.0
- L@MEM124–125−3.4
- L@SAS114–129−1.5
Season scoring marginIND−8.4CHI−4.7
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND−8.4
Scores 112.2, allows 120.6 over 75 games: −8.4 a game.
CHI−4.7
Scores 116.3, allows 121.1 over 75 games: −4.7 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND118.8CHI114.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
IND118.8scored, +4.2 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.8% | 54.6% | +7.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.2% | −0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 16.3% | 26.0% | −4.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.175 | 0.210 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +2.2 |
CHI114.2scored, −0.5 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.4% | 54.6% | +1.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.2% | −0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.4% | 26.0% | +0.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.210 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10IND126.4CHI121.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
IND126.4allowed, +11.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% | 54.6% | −3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.2% | 12.2% | −4.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 33.2% | 26.0% | −3.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.186 | 0.210 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
CHI121.7allowed, +7.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.7% | 54.6% | −4.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.4% | 12.2% | −2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.3% | 26.0% | +1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.198 | 0.210 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.2 |
Pace, last 10average 102.4
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 99.0 and CHI 105.8 → average 102.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingIND68.8CHI10.4
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND68.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith | 17.1 | 30.2 | 8 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 15.9 | 30.6 | 7 |
| Jarace Walker | 14.6 | 28.9 | 9 |
| Ivica Zubac | 11.6 | 23.7 | 5 |
| T.J. McConnell | 9.7 | 19.0 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-01 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
CHI10.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Smith | 10.4 | 21.2 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-01 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestIND3 daysCHI2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND3days
Last played Mar 29 against MIA.
CHI2days
Last played Mar 30 against SAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | MIA | 135–118 | 53-92 | 18-39 | 11-13 | 11 | 3 | 129.8 | 114.6 | 103.5 |
| Mar 27 | LAC | 113–114 | 43-87 | 16-36 | 11-15 | 20 | 8 | 111.9 | 115.2 | 100.0 |
| Mar 25 | LAL | 130–137 | 48-86 | 16-39 | 18-23 | 18 | 5 | 122.6 | 126.9 | 107.0 |
| Mar 23 | @ORL | 128–126 | 45-82 | 16-35 | 22-24 | 7 | 4 | 132.0 | 128.6 | 97.5 |
| Mar 21 | @SAS | 119–134 | 44-85 | 16-35 | 15-19 | 9 | 4 | 120.2 | 135.4 | 99.0 |
| Mar 18 | POR | 119–127 | 46-91 | 12-27 | 15-17 | 11 | 10 | 121.4 | 128.3 | 98.5 |
| Mar 17 | @NYK | 110–136 | 44-85 | 17-38 | 5-7 | 17 | 8 | 114.6 | 141.7 | 96.0 |
| Mar 15 | @MIL | 123–134 | 42-81 | 21-42 | 18-23 | 18 | 10 | 128.1 | 139.6 | 96.0 |
| Mar 13 | NYK | 92–101 | 35-89 | 10-38 | 12-15 | 10 | 7 | 94.8 | 105.2 | 96.5 |
| Mar 12 | PHX | 108–123 | 37-82 | 12-40 | 22-25 | 16 | 3 | 112.5 | 128.1 | 96.0 |
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30 | @SAS | 114–129 | 43-93 | 13-44 | 15-21 | 10 | 7 | 111.8 | 125.2 | 102.5 |
| Mar 28 | @MEM | 124–125 | 41-82 | 10-33 | 32-43 | 23 | 10 | 110.7 | 112.6 | 111.5 |
| Mar 27 | @OKC | 113–131 | 41-98 | 15-47 | 16-21 | 12 | 10 | 107.6 | 126.0 | 104.5 |
| Mar 25 | @PHI | 137–157 | 48-98 | 15-47 | 26-31 | 13 | 10 | 121.2 | 138.9 | 113.0 |
| Mar 23 | HOU | 132–124 | 45-90 | 19-38 | 23-28 | 14 | 7 | 121.1 | 113.8 | 109.0 |
| Mar 19 | CLE | 110–115 | 42-94 | 15-44 | 11-17 | 16 | 12 | 106.8 | 112.7 | 102.5 |
| Mar 18 | TOR | 109–139 | 40-85 | 9-31 | 20-28 | 19 | 9 | 100.9 | 129.9 | 107.5 |
| Mar 16 | MEM | 132–107 | 48-93 | 18-48 | 18-21 | 16 | 13 | 129.4 | 102.9 | 103.0 |
| Mar 13 | @LAC | 108–119 | 42-95 | 12-41 | 12-13 | 13 | 12 | 105.9 | 116.7 | 102.0 |
| Mar 12 | @LAL | 130–142 | 51-95 | 15-36 | 13-16 | 15 | 11 | 126.2 | 137.9 | 103.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 145 | 126 |
| Field goals | 58–102 · 56.9% | 47–97 · 48.5% |
| Three-pointers | 20–48 · 41.7% | 13–39 · 33.3% |
| Free throws | 9–10 · 90.0% | 19–26 · 73.1% |
| Rebounds | 41 | 46 |
| Assists | 49 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 20 |
| Steals | 14 | 6 |
| Blocks | 5 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Chicago Bulls
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CHI) | +7 | −19 | −26 |
| Total points | 241 | 271 | +30 |
| IND points | 117 | 145 | +28 |
| CHI points | 124 | 126 | +2 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 2025-26 | CHI at IND | CHI 110 – 113 IND |
| Dec 5 2025-26 | IND at CHI | IND 120 – 105 CHI |
| Nov 29 2025-26 | CHI at IND | CHI 101 – 103 IND |
| Mar 10 2024-25 | IND at CHI | IND 103 – 121 CHI |
| Mar 2 2024-25 | CHI at IND | CHI 112 – 127 IND |