The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 7

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 5:00 PM ET

DEN 4–3@IND 3–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DEN 70 percent, IND 30 percent. DEN Nuggets 70% proj. 119 · final 114 IND Pacers · home 30% proj. 112 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DEN Denver Nuggets 119 114 −5
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 112 102 −10

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

  • Home court+2.1 INDWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.6 DENElo IND 1357, DEN 1572; season margin IND −5.7, DEN +3.2.
  • Recent form+0.9 DENLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: IND scores 109.8 and allows 113.5; DEN scores 113.3 and allows 115.3.
  • Player availability+0.5 DENIND without Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg).

Together: DEN by 7, a 70% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 4–3, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 115, allowing 115). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.4, getting to the line +1.2. Their defense lets opponents rebound 33% of their misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 2.4 points per 100 possessions.

IND is 3–6, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 114). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 20% of its own misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents rebound 31% of their misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.3. Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors IND; left favors DEN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.6, Recent form −0.9, Player availability −0.5, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving −6.5 for IND. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.6 Recent form −0.9 Player availability −0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin −6.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −6.5. The 70% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputDENINDEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15721357 −1.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −145 −5.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.2−5.7 −0.8
Games played this season 79 +0.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.3109.8 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.3113.5 −0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.021.8 −0.5
Rest days 33 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueIND ptsDEN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-144.5−1.68+3.48−5.15
Elo rating (home)1357.3−0.35+1.38−1.74
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.17+0.45−0.62
Season scoring margin (home)-5.7−0.51+0.03−0.54
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.3−0.41+0.11−0.52
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.54−0.15−0.39
Combined pace, last 10100.0+1.08+1.43−0.35
Season scoring margin (away)3.2−0.06+0.26−0.31
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.5−0.21−0.51+0.30
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.07+0.18
Elo rating (away)1571.9+0.17+0.01+0.16
Rotation points missing (home)21.8+0.24+0.10+0.14
Rest days (home)3.0+0.05−0.03+0.08
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.3+0.02−0.03+0.04
Games played (home)9.0−0.20−0.23+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Rest days (away)3.0+0.00−0.03+0.03
Games played (away)7.0+0.05+0.07−0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01±0.00+0.01
Elimination game0+0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1572IND13576.7 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1572

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 7 games: −19.3
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
  • LGSW114–134−32.3
  • W@NOP104–91+9.0
  • W@PHX127–120+8.7
  • LPOR110–118−13.3
  • WTOR128–109+11.5

IND1357

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 9 games: −17.0
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
  • LPHI109–114−4.9
  • L@MIA125–145−7.3
  • LBKN90–98−14.6
  • LATL104–108−4.1
  • W@MEM107–103+9.8
Season scoring marginDEN+3.2IND−5.70.8 pts toward DEN

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+3.2

Scores 115.4, allows 114.7 over 7 games: +0.7 a game.

35% this season (+0.7) + 65% last season (+4.5) = +3.2

IND−5.7

Scores 111.2, allows 114.2 over 9 games: −3.0 a game.

45% this season (−3.0) + 55% last season (−8.0) = −5.7

Offensive rating, last 10DEN113.3IND109.80.3 pts toward DEN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

DEN113.3scored, +1.0 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%53.3%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%13.3%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%27.3%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2680.228+1.2
Everything else−1.3

IND109.8scored, −2.4 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%53.3%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%13.3%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.2%27.3%−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.228−0.2
Everything else+0.0
Defensive rating, last 10DEN115.3IND113.50.2 pts toward DEN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

DEN115.3allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%53.3%−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%13.3%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.6%27.3%−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.228+0.9
Everything else−1.2

IND113.5allowed, +1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%53.3%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%13.3%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.5%27.3%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.228+0.2
Everything else+1.4
Pace, last 10average 100.00.3 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 97.9 and IND 102.0 → average 100.0 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0IND21.80.5 pts toward DEN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

IND21.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tyrese Haliburton21.833.04

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestDEN3 daysIND3 days0.1 pts toward IND

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN3days

Last played Nov 4 against TOR.

IND3days

Last played Nov 4 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4TOR128–10948-789-2323-27157130.6112.497.5
Nov 2POR110–11836-779-2629-34129113.4122.996.5
Oct 30@PHX127–12042-8020-3723-301812129.6122.498.0
Oct 28@NOP104–9137-8012-3118-19175104.090.1100.5
Oct 26GSW114–13442-8410-2920-231110117.5139.696.5
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@MEM107–10340-8812-3715-17158104.9100.0102.5
Nov 2ATL104–10838-808-3420-23185104.0106.9100.5
Nov 1BKN90–9828-7013-3521-3014997.8106.592.0
Oct 30@MIA125–14544-9117-3720-271314119.0139.4104.5
Oct 28PHI109–11436-879-3628-351513106.9110.7102.5
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
70%
pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner
DEN was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −12 for IND
104th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDENIND
Final score114102
Field goals44–96 · 45.8%41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers10–35 · 28.6%15–48 · 31.3%
Free throws16–19 · 84.2%5–7 · 71.4%
Rebounds5145
Assists2930
Turnovers310
Steals42
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)−7−12−5
Total points231216−15
DEN points119114−5
IND points112102−10

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Denver Nuggets

  • Out Julian Strawther · Left Knee Sprain

Indiana Pacers

  • Out Ben Sheppard · Left Meniscus Surgery
  • Out Johnny Furphy
  • Out Tyrese Haliburton · Left Hamstring Strain

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs TOR W 128–109
Nov 2 vs POR L 110–118
Oct 30 at PHX W 127–120
Oct 28 at NOP W 104–91
Oct 26 vs GSW L 114–134

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at MEM W 107–103
Nov 2 vs ATL L 104–108
Nov 1 vs BKN L 90–98
Oct 30 at MIA L 125–145
Oct 28 vs PHI L 109–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 3 2025-26 DEN at IND DEN 135 – 120 IND
Nov 8 2025-26 IND at DEN IND 100 – 117 DEN
Apr 6 2024-25 IND at DEN IND 125 – 120 DEN
Feb 24 2024-25 DEN at IND DEN 125 – 116 IND
Jan 23 2023-24 DEN at IND DEN 114 – 109 IND