The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · tip-off 5:00 PM ET

BKN 0–5@IND 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 41 percent, IND 59 percent. BKN Nets 41% proj. 116 · final 98 IND Pacers · home 59% proj. 119 · final 90
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 116 98 −18
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 119 90 −29

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans IND

  • Home court+2.1 INDWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Player availability+4.0 BKNBKN without Mikel Brown Jr. (10 ppg) and Egor Dëmin (8 ppg); IND without Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg) and Obi Toppin (15 ppg) and 1 more.
  • Recent form+3.4 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: IND scores 110.0 and allows 113.3; BKN scores 105.2 and allows 117.3.
  • Team strength+2.0 INDElo IND 1366, BKN 1285; season margin IND −6.5, BKN −10.2.

Together: IND by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

IND is 2–4, losing by 3 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 120). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 20% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.1. Their defense lets opponents rebound 30% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.2. Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin and Ivica Zubac are out (46 rotation points a game combined).

BKN is 0–5, losing by 11 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 121). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −3, ball security −1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 59% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.9. Mikel Brown Jr. and Egor Dëmin are out (18 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors IND; left favors BKN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Player availability −4.0, Recent form +3.4, Team strength +2.0, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +3.8 for IND. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Player availability −4.0 Recent form +3.4 Team strength +2.0 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +3.8
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.8. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBKNINDEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12851366 −0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +152 +2.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.2−6.5 +0.9
Games played this season 56 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.2110.0 +1.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.3113.3 +1.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.2 +0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.046.0 −4.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueIND ptsBKN ptsMargin
Rotation points missing (home)46.0−3.35+0.19−3.54
Elo gap incl. home court151.5+1.21−0.92+2.13
Season scoring margin (away)-10.2+0.99−0.81+1.80
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)105.2−0.09−1.45+1.36
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)117.3+1.30+0.06+1.24
Elo rating (home)1366.2−0.09+0.89−0.98
Season scoring margin (home)-6.5−0.67+0.27−0.93
Elo rating (away)1284.7+0.87−0.04+0.91
Games played (away)5.0+0.20+0.94−0.74
Combined pace, last 10102.3+4.36+3.79+0.57
Rotation points missing (away)18.0+0.01+0.43−0.42
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.03+0.22
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3+0.04−0.18+0.22
Games played (home)6.0−0.07+0.09−0.15
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.01+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)110.0−0.07−0.07−0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1285IND13662.1 pts toward IND

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1285

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 5 games: −30.3
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5
  • L@BOS124–125−0.6
  • LDET94–110−3.9

IND1366

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 6 games: −8.1
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
  • LPHI109–114−4.9
  • L@MIA125–145−7.3
Season scoring marginBKN−10.2IND−6.5no effect on the margin

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−10.2

Scores 110.2, allows 121.2 over 5 games: −11.0 a game.

25% this season (−11.0) + 75% last season (−10.0) = −10.2

IND−6.5

Scores 116.7, allows 119.8 over 6 games: −3.2 a game.

30% this season (−3.2) + 70% last season (−8.0) = −6.5

Offensive rating, last 10BKN105.2IND110.01.4 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN105.2scored, −9.4 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.5%−6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%26.1%−3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210+0.5
Everything else+0.4

IND110.0scored, −4.5 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%26.1%−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.210+0.1
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10BKN117.3IND113.31.5 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

BKN117.3allowed, +2.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.5%−7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else+0.9

IND113.3allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210−0.1
Everything else+2.5
Pace, last 10average 102.20.6 pts toward IND

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingBKN18.0IND46.04.0 pts toward BKN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN18.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mikel Brown Jr.10.222.64
Egor Dëmin7.821.84

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

IND46.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tyrese Haliburton21.833.04
Obi Toppin15.222.95
Ivica Zubac9.021.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysIND2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Oct 30 against DET.

IND2days

Last played Oct 30 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30DET94–11031-7711-3721-2623992.2108.9101.5
Oct 27@BOS124–12545-9717-5017-221512111.7112.6100.5
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@MIA125–14544-9117-3720-271314119.0139.4104.5
Oct 28PHI109–11436-879-3628-351513106.9110.7102.5
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner
the forecast favored IND
11 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −8 for IND
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
59th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNIND
Final score9890
Field goals30–73 · 41.1%28–70 · 40.0%
Three-pointers13–39 · 33.3%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws25–31 · 80.6%21–30 · 70.0%
Rebounds4337
Assists2121
Turnovers1514
Steals65
Blocks22

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)+3−8−11
Total points235188−47
BKN points11698−18
IND points11990−29

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs DET L 94–110
Oct 27 at BOS L 124–125
Oct 25 vs IND L 109–136
Oct 24 at CLE L 121–125
Oct 21 vs CHA L 103–110

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at MIA L 125–145
Oct 28 vs PHI L 109–114
Oct 26 at MIL L 102–110
Oct 25 at BKN W 136–109
Oct 23 vs DAL L 105–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 25 2026-27 IND at BKN IND 136 – 109 BKN
Apr 9 2025-26 IND at BKN IND 123 – 94 BKN
Feb 11 2025-26 IND at BKN IND 115 – 110 BKN
Nov 5 2025-26 BKN at IND BKN 112 – 103 IND
Mar 22 2024-25 BKN at IND BKN 103 – 108 IND