The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 12

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

IND 1–2@OKC 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 28 percent, OKC 72 percent. IND Pacers 28% proj. 112 · final 121 OKC Thunder · home 72% proj. 121 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 112 121 +9
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 121 111 −10

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputINDOKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15371628
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +161
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.6+8.0
Games played this season 6564
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.7118.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.8107.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 17.70.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1537OKC1628

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1537

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1421
  2. First 55 games: +96.7
  3. Last 10 games: +19.3
  • W@TOR127–125+3.9
  • WDET129–115+2.9
  • WDAL133–111+14.8
  • LTOR122–130−16.2
  • WNOP123–114+10.0
  • L@NOP102–129−11.9
  • L@SAS105–117−17.1
  • W@DAL137–120+20.0
  • LMIN111–113−3.9
  • W@ORL111–97+16.8

OKC1628

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
  2. First 54 games: +105.3
  3. Last 10 games: +12.8
  • WLAC129–107+15.0
  • WWAS147–106+3.6
  • W@HOU123–110+7.7
  • WHOU112–95+4.2
  • L@SAS118–132−27.2
  • W@PHX118–110+9.6
  • L@LAL104–116−13.4
  • W@POR128–120+3.8
  • WMIA107–100+5.1
  • WMEM124–93+4.4
Season scoring marginIND+1.6OKC+8.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND+1.6

Scores 123.1, allows 121.4 over 65 games: +1.6 a game.

OKC+8.0

Scores 120.8, allows 112.9 over 64 games: +8.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10IND117.7OKC118.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

IND117.7scored, +2.7 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.8%+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)9.9%11.5%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%24.2%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.198−0.5
Everything else+0.1

OKC118.6scored, +3.7 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.1%54.8%+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%11.5%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%24.2%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.198−0.7
Everything else−2.3
Defensive rating, last 10IND114.8OKC107.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

IND114.8allowed, −0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.8%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.5%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.2%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.198+0.6
Everything else+0.9

OKC107.7allowed, −7.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.8%+3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%11.5%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%24.2%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.198+0.3
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 101.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 102.0 and OKC 101.5 → average 101.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingIND17.7OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND17.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Bennedict Mathurin17.730.57

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-12 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Mar 10 against ORL.

OKC2days

Last played Mar 10 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 10@ORL111–9738-788-2327-33125112.198.099.0
Mar 7MIN111–11342-8210-2617-23157112.1113.099.5
Mar 5@DAL137–12050-9318-3919-2489135.6120.0100.5
Mar 3@SAS105–11741-936-3017-211014105.0118.299.5
Mar 1@NOP102–12940-9510-3212-181617100.0126.5102.0
Feb 28NOP123–11450-10214-389-9814121.8112.9101.0
Feb 26TOR122–13046-10013-4217-231013120.8127.5101.5
Feb 25DAL133–11152-9314-3615-17126126.7104.7105.5
Feb 22DET129–11550-9413-3016-19137122.9108.5105.5
Feb 14@TOR127–12547-9717-4116-2389119.8119.0105.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 10MEM124–9349-9321-475-5108126.596.997.0
Mar 8MIA107–10042-8912-3811-1399111.5106.495.0
Mar 6@POR128–12043-749-2233-39187123.1116.5103.5
Mar 4@LAL104–11637-9415-3915-161013104.0117.299.5
Mar 3@PHX118–11049-1029-3111-1558114.6107.8102.5
Feb 29@SAS118–13244-899-3121-22107119.2133.399.0
Feb 27HOU112–9544-9310-2714-181312108.792.2103.0
Feb 25@HOU123–11046-9717-3514-1598119.4105.8103.5
Feb 23WAS147–10655-9220-4017-21158131.396.4111.0
Feb 22LAC129–10750-9017-3512-17128127.7104.9101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner
the forecast favored OKC
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −10 for OKC
23rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
225th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDOKC
Final score121111
Field goals48–89 · 53.9%43–99 · 43.4%
Three-pointers9–28 · 32.1%14–37 · 37.8%
Free throws16–19 · 84.2%11–15 · 73.3%
Rebounds4350
Assists3424
Turnovers912
Steals85
Blocks104

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+9−10−19
Total points233232−1
IND points112121+9
OKC points121111−10

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
IND22363627–121
OKC17294124–111

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Mar 10 at ORL W 111–97
Mar 7 vs MIN L 111–113
Mar 5 at DAL W 137–120
Mar 3 at SAS L 105–117
Mar 1 at NOP L 102–129

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Mar 10 vs MEM W 124–93
Mar 8 vs MIA W 107–100
Mar 6 at POR W 128–120
Mar 4 at LAL L 104–116
Mar 3 at PHX W 118–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 31 2022-23 OKC at IND OKC 117 – 121 IND
Jan 18 2022-23 IND at OKC IND 106 – 126 OKC
Feb 25 2021-22 OKC at IND OKC 129 – 125 IND
Jan 28 2021-22 IND at OKC IND 113 – 110 OKC