The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

PHI 3–1@IND 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 59 percent, IND 41 percent. PHI 76ers 59% proj. 119 · final 114 IND Pacers · home 41% proj. 116 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 119 114 −5
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 116 109 −7

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans PHI

  • Home court+2.1 INDWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.5 PHIElo IND 1378, PHI 1539; season margin IND −6.1, PHI −0.5.
  • Recent form+1.5 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: IND scores 109.3 and allows 113.1; PHI scores 106.9 and allows 112.4.

Together: PHI by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

PHI is 3–1, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 107). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −3, ball security +1.3. Their defense lets opponents rebound 28% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.1 points per 100 possessions.

IND is 2–2, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 115). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 18% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.0, forcing turnovers −1.9. Ivica Zubac (9 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors IND; left favors PHI.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −6.5, Recent form +1.5, No playoff context +0.2, Player availability −0.1, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −2.6 for IND. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −6.5 Recent form +1.5 No playoff context +0.2 Player availability −0.1 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −2.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −2.6. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPHIINDEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15391378 −0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −91 −4.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.5−6.1 −1.1
Games played this season 44 +0.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 106.9109.3 +0.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.4113.1 +0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2 +0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.09.0 −0.1
Rest days 32 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueIND ptsPHI ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-90.5−1.43+3.29−4.72
Season scoring margin (home)-6.1−0.63+0.36−1.00
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)106.9−0.10−1.06+0.96
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)113.1+0.54−0.40+0.93
Elo rating (home)1378.3−0.18+0.75−0.93
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.19+0.56−0.75
Rotation points missing (home)9.0+0.69+0.01+0.68
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.4−0.52−0.07−0.45
Combined pace, last 10101.2+3.02+2.69+0.33
Games played (home)4.0+0.19−0.07+0.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.3−0.34−0.10−0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.07+0.20
Elo rating (away)1538.9+0.12−0.00+0.13
Games played (away)4.0+0.29+0.40−0.11
Season scoring margin (away)-0.5−0.01+0.10−0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02−0.00+0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.01+0.02−0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1539IND13785.5 pts toward PHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1539

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1524
  2. This season's 4 games: +15.4
  • W@NYK106–100+16.0
  • WCLE114–106+7.9
  • WMIL127–116+3.4
  • LDET93–106−11.9

IND1378

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 4 games: +4.1
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
Season scoring marginPHI−0.5IND−6.10.9 pts toward PHI

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−0.5

Scores 110.0, allows 107.0 over 4 games: +3.0 a game.

20% this season (+3.0) + 80% last season (−1.3) = −0.5

IND−6.1

Scores 116.5, allows 115.0 over 4 games: +1.5 a game.

20% this season (+1.5) + 80% last season (−8.0) = −6.1

Offensive rating, last 10PHI106.9IND109.30.7 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHI106.9scored, −7.7 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.5%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.4%26.1%−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.210+0.9
Everything else+0.2

IND109.3scored, −5.3 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.2%26.1%−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10PHI112.4IND113.10.5 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHI112.4allowed, −2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210+0.1
Everything else+2.7

IND113.1allowed, −1.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.5%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.5%26.1%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else+3.0
Pace, last 10average 101.20.3 pts toward IND

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 99.6 and IND 102.8 → average 101.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0IND9.00.1 pts toward PHI

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

IND9.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ivica Zubac9.021.43

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHI3 daysIND2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI3days

Last played Oct 25 against DET.

IND2days

Last played Oct 26 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25DET93–10636-907-2714-2310997.9110.495.5
Oct 24MIL127–11640-9819-4428-341111115.5104.5110.5
Oct 22CLE114–10642-927-2823-30169103.697.2109.5
Oct 20@NYK106–10037-8911-4021-27106103.998.0102.0
May 10NYK114–14443-868-3520-2897116.3146.998.0
May 8NYK94–10836-849-3213-16119101.1114.993.5
May 6@NYK102–10834-7513-3421-281811108.5113.794.5
May 4@NYK98–13730-7311-3027-3419899.0139.898.5
May 2@BOS109–10039-8211-2820-2393116.0105.394.5
Apr 30BOS106–9339-8911-3317-19108107.193.099.5

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
PHI was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast −3, actual −5 for IND
74th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHIIND
Final score114109
Field goals40–87 · 46.0%36–87 · 41.4%
Three-pointers13–36 · 36.1%9–36 · 25.0%
Free throws21–24 · 87.5%28–35 · 80.0%
Rebounds4547
Assists2330
Turnovers1615
Steals75
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)−3−5−2
Total points235223−12
PHI points119114−5
IND points116109−7

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 vs DET L 93–106
Oct 24 vs MIL W 127–116
Oct 22 vs CLE W 114–106
Oct 20 at NYK W 106–100
May 10 vs NYK L 114–144

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at MIL L 102–110
Oct 25 at BKN W 136–109
Oct 23 vs DAL L 105–121
Oct 21 at NOP W 123–120
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 10 2025-26 PHI at IND PHI 105 – 94 IND
Feb 24 2025-26 PHI at IND PHI 135 – 114 IND
Jan 19 2025-26 IND at PHI IND 104 – 113 PHI
Dec 12 2025-26 IND at PHI IND 105 – 115 PHI
Mar 14 2024-25 IND at PHI IND 112 – 100 PHI