2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

Monday, March 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

IND 3–1@ORL 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
IND Indiana Pacers	109	128	+19
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	122	126	+4

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	IND	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1275	1542
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+337
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.0	+1.3
Games played this season	71	71
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.3	116.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	126.4	112.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	11.6	15.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1275ORL1542

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1275

Ended last season at 1673 → started this one at 1630
First 61 games: −313.7
Last 10 games: −41.3

L@LAC107–130−4.2
L@LAL117–128−2.9
L@POR111–131−5.9
L@SAC109–114−5.1
LPHX108–123−6.6
LNYK92–101−2.5
L@MIL123–134−5.6
L@NYK110–136−2.1
LPOR119–127−5.4
L@SAS119–134−1.0

ORL1542

Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
First 61 games: −11.3
Last 10 games: +48.0

WDAL115–114+1.8
W@MIN119–92+33.5
W@MIL130–91+22.8
WCLE128–122+8.1
WWAS136–131+1.2
W@MIA121–117+8.5
L@ATL112–124−10.0
LOKC108–113−5.1
L@CHA111–130−8.5
LLAL104–105−4.3

Season scoring marginIND−9.0ORL+1.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−9.0

Scores 111.4, allows 120.4 over 71 games: −9.0 a game.

ORL+1.3

Scores 115.6, allows 114.3 over 71 games: +1.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10IND112.3ORL116.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

IND112.3scored, −2.3 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.5%	−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			−2.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

ORL116.9scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.4%	54.5%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.210	+1.0
Everything else			+1.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10IND126.4ORL112.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

IND126.4allowed, +11.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.3%	54.5%	−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.7%	12.2%	−3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.210	+0.2
Everything else			−2.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

ORL112.7allowed, −1.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.0%	54.5%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.9

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 99.5 and ORL 100.2 → average 99.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingIND11.6ORL15.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND11.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ivica Zubac	11.6	23.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-23 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

ORL15.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Suggs	15.0	30.2	10

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-23 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysORL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Mar 21 against SAS.

ORL2days

Last played Mar 21 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 21	@SAS	119–134	44-85	16-35	15-19	9	4	120.2	135.4	99.0
Mar 18	POR	119–127	46-91	12-27	15-17	11	10	121.4	128.3	98.5
Mar 17	@NYK	110–136	44-85	17-38	5-7	17	8	114.6	141.7	96.0
Mar 15	@MIL	123–134	42-81	21-42	18-23	18	10	128.1	139.6	96.0
Mar 13	NYK	92–101	35-89	10-38	12-15	10	7	94.8	105.2	96.5
Mar 12	PHX	108–123	37-82	12-40	22-25	16	3	112.5	128.1	96.0
Mar 10	@SAC	109–114	38-93	13-43	20-22	15	7	103.8	106.5	106.0
Mar 8	@POR	111–131	41-95	14-42	15-24	10	–	108.8	128.4	102.0
Mar 6	@LAL	117–128	46-98	8-35	17-24	7	–	114.7	125.5	102.0
Mar 4	@LAC	107–130	36-84	10-36	25-31	12	4	103.9	125.0	103.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 21	LAL	104–105	36-83	11-37	21-23	16	12	108.3	110.5	95.5
Mar 19	@CHA	111–130	39-93	14-42	19-21	14	11	114.4	131.3	98.0
Mar 17	OKC	108–113	37-93	17-50	17-20	12	10	106.9	113.0	100.5
Mar 16	@ATL	112–124	40-95	14-43	18-23	11	8	106.7	119.2	104.5
Mar 14	@MIA	121–117	44-89	10-32	23-25	19	11	115.2	111.4	105.0
Mar 12	WAS	136–131	47-100	15-34	27-34	13	11	117.2	114.9	104.2
Mar 11	CLE	128–122	44-85	12-35	28-37	6	8	133.3	128.4	95.5
Mar 8	@MIL	130–91	45-80	14-33	26-35	15	–	135.4	93.8	96.5
Mar 7	@MIN	119–92	42-91	9-34	26-31	14	–	115.5	90.2	102.5
Mar 5	DAL	115–114	44-97	13-39	14-16	12	–	116.2	114.0	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −2 for ORL

13th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

360th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	IND	ORL
Final score	128	126
Field goals	45–82 · 54.9%	48–94 · 51.1%
Three-pointers	16–35 · 45.7%	12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws	22–24 · 91.7%	18–24 · 75.0%
Rebounds	35	36
Assists	32	29
Turnovers	7	11
Steals	5	5
Blocks	4	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+13	−2	−15
Total points	231	254	+23
IND points	109	128	+19
ORL points	122	126	+4

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 21	at SAS	L 119–134
Mar 18	vs POR	L 119–127
Mar 17	at NYK	L 110–136
Mar 15	at MIL	L 123–134
Mar 13	vs NYK	L 92–101

Orlando Magic

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 21	vs LAL	L 104–105
Mar 19	at CHA	L 111–130
Mar 17	vs OKC	L 108–113
Mar 16	at ATL	L 112–124
Mar 14	at MIA	W 121–117

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 4 2025-26	IND at ORL	IND 127 – 135 ORL
Dec 31 2025-26	ORL at IND	ORL 112 – 110 IND
Apr 11 2024-25	ORL at IND	ORL 129 – 115 IND
Nov 13 2024-25	IND at ORL	IND 90 – 94 ORL
Nov 6 2024-25	ORL at IND	ORL 111 – 118 IND