The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

Wednesday, November 1, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

IND 0–0@BOS 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 34 percent, BOS 66 percent. IND Pacers 34% proj. 112 · final 104 BOS Celtics · home 66% proj. 118 · final 155
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 112 104 −8
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 118 155 +37

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputINDBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14471638
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +261
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.3+6.6
Games played this season 33
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.9113.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.5113.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1447BOS1638

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1447

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1421
  2. This season's 3 games: +26.1
  • WWAS143–120+15.6
  • W@CLE125–113+20.0
  • LCHI105–112−9.5

BOS1638

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. This season's 3 games: +22.4
  • W@NYK108–104+6.8
  • WMIA119–111+5.6
  • W@WAS126–107+10.0
Season scoring marginIND−1.3BOS+6.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−1.3

Scores 124.3, allows 115.0 over 3 games: +9.3 a game.

15% this season (+9.3) + 85% last season (−3.2) = −1.3

BOS+6.6

Scores 117.7, allows 107.3 over 3 games: +10.3 a game.

15% this season (+10.3) + 85% last season (+5.9) = +6.6

Offensive rating, last 10IND116.9BOS113.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

IND116.9scored, +2.8 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.6%+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.9%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%23.8%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210+0.3
Everything else+0.8

BOS113.9scored, −0.2 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.6%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.9%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%23.8%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.210−0.4
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10IND119.5BOS113.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

IND119.5allowed, +5.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.1%54.6%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%11.9%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%23.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210−0.3
Everything else+0.8

BOS113.7allowed, −0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.6%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.9%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%23.8%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1850.210+0.7
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 104.5 and BOS 95.6 → average 100.0 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingIND0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-01 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Oct 30 against CHI.

BOS2days

Last played Oct 30 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30CHI105–11236-8812-4621-251711101.9108.7103.0
Oct 28@CLE125–11348-9815-3814-17711127.6114.198.5
Oct 25WAS143–12056-10720-4311-121210128.8109.1110.5
Apr 9@NYK141–13646-8919-3430-38158127.0122.5111.0
Apr 7DET115–12241-8311-3122-28199109.5116.2105.0
Apr 5NYK129–13845-8715-3024-301710124.0130.2105.0
Apr 2@CLE105–11536-839-2424-291511104.0115.0100.5
Mar 31OKC121–11745-9812-4119-281520115.2111.4105.0
Mar 29MIL136–14953-10114-3016-22810124.8138.0108.5
Mar 27DAL104–12739-938-2818-231314106.1129.698.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@WAS126–10751-10219-535-71715121.2102.9104.0
Oct 27MIA119–11145-9516-3913-191516119.0112.199.5
Oct 25@NYK108–10437-7712-3922-26137112.5107.296.5
May 29MIA84–10332-829-4211-13151091.3110.892.5
May 27@MIA104–10334-787-3529-341212115.6114.490.0
May 25MIA110–9740-7916-3914-19912125.0111.587.5
May 23@MIA116–9943-8418-4512-18107122.1105.394.5
May 21@MIA102–12839-9811-4213-171521103.0130.698.5
May 19MIA105–11137-7910-3521-24156109.4115.696.0
May 17MIA116–12342-8110-2922-29159119.6126.897.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
67%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
45 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual +51 for BOS
1022nd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
2nd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDBOS
Final score104155
Field goals46–101 · 45.5%54–95 · 56.8%
Three-pointers5–37 · 13.5%20–35 · 57.1%
Free throws7–12 · 58.3%27–28 · 96.4%
Rebounds3157
Assists2627
Turnovers911
Steals65
Blocks62

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+6+51+45
Total points230259+29
IND points112104−8
BOS points118155+37

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
IND27271733–104
BOS44313446–155

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs CHI L 105–112
Oct 28 at CLE W 125–113
Oct 25 vs WAS W 143–120
Apr 9 at NYK W 141–136
Apr 7 vs DET L 115–122

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at WAS W 126–107
Oct 27 vs MIA W 119–111
Oct 25 at NYK W 108–104
May 29 vs MIA L 84–103
May 27 at MIA W 104–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 24 2022-23 IND at BOS IND 95 – 120 BOS
Feb 23 2022-23 BOS at IND BOS 142 – 138 IND
Dec 21 2022-23 IND at BOS IND 117 – 112 BOS
Apr 1 2021-22 IND at BOS IND 123 – 128 BOS
Feb 27 2021-22 BOS at IND BOS 107 – 128 IND