The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

IND 0–0@NOP 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 41 percent, NOP 59 percent. IND Pacers 41% proj. 121 · final 123 NOP Pelicans · home 59% proj. 124 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 121 123 +2
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 124 120 −4

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NOP

  • Home court+2.1 NOPWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.2 NOPElo NOP 1424, IND 1374; season margin NOP −4.5, IND −8.0.
  • Recent form+2.0 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NOP scores 112.2 and allows 122.3; IND scores 114.1 and allows 115.8.
  • Rest and schedule+0.4 NOPNOP 5 days of rest, IND 5.

Together: NOP by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NOP hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −4 team. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.5, offensive rebounding −1.0. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.0.

IND hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −8 team. Their offense rebounds 16% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +4, ball security −1.9. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.4% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.3.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NOP; left favors IND.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +2.2, Recent form −2.0, Rest and schedule +0.4, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.1, giving +3.0 for NOP. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +2.2 Recent form −2.0 Rest and schedule +0.4 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin +3.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.0. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputINDNOPEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13741424 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +120 +1.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.0−4.5 +1.2
Games played this season 00 −1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.1112.2 −0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.8122.3 −1.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.3 −0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 55 +0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNOP ptsIND ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)122.3+0.58+2.88−2.30
Season scoring margin (away)-8.0+0.84−0.78+1.62
Elo gap incl. home court119.8+0.53−0.86+1.39
Games played (away)0.0+0.21+1.28−1.07
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)115.8+0.88+0.15+0.72
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.66−0.06+0.72
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.13+0.51−0.64
Elo rating (away)1374.3+0.42−0.13+0.55
Season scoring margin (home)-4.5−0.18+0.25−0.42
Rest days (home)5.0+0.24−0.10+0.33
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.2−0.31+0.01−0.31
Combined pace, last 10103.3+4.84+5.07−0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.03+0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.1−0.00−0.16+0.15
Games played (home)0.0+0.68+0.61+0.07
Elo rating (home)1424.0−0.12−0.18+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.00+0.03
Rest days (away)5.0−0.07−0.06−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1374NOP14242.0 pts toward NOP

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1374

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. No games played yet this season.

NOP1424

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginIND−8.0NOP−4.50.2 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−8.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−8.0) = −8.0

NOP−4.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−4.5) = −4.5

Offensive rating, last 10IND114.1NOP112.20.2 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND114.1scored, −0.5 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.5%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.8%26.1%−4.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210−1.1
Everything else+2.7

NOP112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.210+0.3
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10IND115.8NOP122.31.6 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

IND115.8allowed, +1.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.5%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.2%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.2%26.1%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.210+0.9
Everything else+2.8

NOP122.3allowed, +7.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.8%54.5%−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 103.30.2 pts toward IND

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 103.4 and NOP 103.3 → average 103.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingIND0.0NOP0.00.1 pts toward NOP

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestIND5 daysNOP5 days0.4 pts toward NOP

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND5days

Last played Apr 12 against DET (192 days, capped at 5).

NOP5days

Last played Apr 12 against MIN (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0
Apr 7MIN104–12435-739-2625-31224101.0119.2103.5
Apr 5@CLE108–11733-8617-4425-29107109.1118.299.0
Apr 3@CHA108–12943-9315-367-101110109.1130.399.0
Apr 1@CHI145–12658-10220-489-10136134.3114.5109.0
Mar 29MIA135–11853-9218-3911-13113129.8114.6103.5
Mar 27LAC113–11443-8716-3611-15208111.9115.2100.0
Mar 25LAL130–13748-8616-3918-23185122.6126.9107.0

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5
Apr 2@POR106–11838-849-2321-261912107.1116.8100.0
Mar 29HOU102–13437-869-2919-28108102.0135.499.5
Mar 27@TOR106–11939-937-2821-251315106.0119.0100.0
Mar 26@DET108–12944-959-2511-241516104.9124.0103.5
Mar 24@NYK116–12145-8815-3411-1376126.1130.192.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −3 for NOP
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDNOP
Final score123120
Field goals47–90 · 52.2%38–89 · 42.7%
Three-pointers9–30 · 30.0%10–30 · 33.3%
Free throws20–29 · 69.0%34–37 · 91.9%
Rebounds4349
Assists2923
Turnovers1314
Steals911
Blocks46

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+3−3−6
Total points245243−2
IND points121123+2
NOP points124120−4

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs DET L 121–133
Apr 10 vs PHI L 94–105
Apr 9 at BKN W 123–94
Apr 7 vs MIN L 104–124
Apr 5 at CLE L 108–117

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at MIN L 126–132
Apr 10 at BOS L 118–144
Apr 7 vs UTA W 156–137
Apr 5 vs ORL L 108–112
Apr 3 at SAC L 113–117

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 16 2025-26 NOP at IND NOP 119 – 127 IND
Dec 20 2025-26 IND at NOP IND 109 – 128 NOP
Dec 15 2024-25 NOP at IND NOP 104 – 119 IND
Nov 25 2024-25 NOP at IND NOP 110 – 114 IND
Nov 1 2024-25 IND at NOP IND 118 – 125 NOP