2022-23 · Regular Season · Final
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Thursday, March 16, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded
IND 1–2@MIL 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 111 | 139 | +28 |
| MIL Milwaukee Bucks (home) | 126 | 123 | −3 |
Forecast: Milwaukee Bucks to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 15.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1406 | 1667 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +331 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −2.4 | +4.1 |
| Games played this season | 69 | 69 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 119.0 | 118.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 120.1 | 112.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 101.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 21.2 | 11.7 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1406MIL1667
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1406
- Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
- First 59 games: −2.6
- Last 10 games: +11.9
- WCHI117–113+6.7
- LBOS138–142−3.1
- W@ORL121–108+19.1
- W@DAL124–122+8.0
- L@SAS99–110−13.8
- W@CHI125–122+8.8
- LPHI143–147−3.9
- WHOU134–125+4.1
- W@DET121–115+6.4
- L@DET97–117−20.4
MIL1667
- Ended last season at 1595 → started this one at 1571
- First 59 games: +62.5
- Last 10 games: +33.1
- WPHX104–101+2.7
- W@BKN118–104+10.0
- WORL139–117+5.5
- LPHI130–133−8.3
- W@WAS117–111+6.0
- W@ORL134–123+6.7
- WBKN118–113+2.8
- L@GSW116–125−12.0
- W@SAC133–124+9.2
- W@PHX116–104+10.5
Season scoring marginIND−2.4MIL+4.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND−2.4
Scores 115.5, allows 117.9 over 69 games: −2.4 a game.
MIL+4.1
Scores 116.1, allows 112.0 over 69 games: +4.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND119.0MIL118.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).
IND119.0scored, +5.2 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.5% | 12.1% | +2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.7% | 23.8% | −0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.208 | 0.213 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
MIL118.6scored, +4.7 vs league
| Factor | MIL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.8% | 54.6% | +6.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.1% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.7% | 23.8% | −0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.198 | 0.213 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −0.7 |
Defensive rating, last 10IND120.1MIL112.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).
IND120.1allowed, +6.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.0% | 54.6% | −2.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.2% | 12.1% | −1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.7% | 23.8% | −1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.225 | 0.213 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.2 |
MIL112.0allowed, −1.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.8% | 54.6% | +5.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.8% | 12.1% | −3.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.0% | 23.8% | −0.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.173 | 0.213 | +1.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
Pace, last 10average 101.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 100.0 and MIL 102.3 → average 101.2 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)
Rotation points missingIND21.2MIL11.7
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND21.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | 12.0 | 23.9 | 8 |
| Chris Duarte | 9.2 | 21.9 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-16 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.
MIL11.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen | 11.7 | 29.4 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2023-03-16 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestIND3 daysMIL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND3days
Last played Mar 13 against DET.
MIL2days
Last played Mar 14 against PHX.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | @DET | 97–117 | 36-86 | 10-34 | 15-24 | 14 | 13 | 99.0 | 119.4 | 98.0 |
| Mar 11 | @DET | 121–115 | 43-93 | 9-35 | 26-34 | 14 | 18 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 106.0 |
| Mar 9 | HOU | 134–125 | 48-100 | 18-45 | 20-21 | 11 | 8 | 120.7 | 111.6 | 101.0 |
| Mar 6 | PHI | 143–147 | 53-90 | 15-37 | 22-31 | 9 | 5 | 136.2 | 140.0 | 105.0 |
| Mar 5 | @CHI | 125–122 | 48-94 | 16-44 | 13-16 | 9 | 13 | 133.0 | 131.2 | 93.5 |
| Mar 2 | @SAS | 99–110 | 41-90 | 8-23 | 9-11 | 14 | 6 | 96.1 | 108.9 | 102.0 |
| Feb 28 | @DAL | 124–122 | 41-78 | 11-28 | 31-40 | 9 | 5 | 126.5 | 122.0 | 99.0 |
| Feb 25 | @ORL | 121–108 | 48-99 | 15-40 | 10-14 | 7 | 10 | 118.6 | 108.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 23 | BOS | 138–142 | 49-94 | 22-49 | 18-22 | 14 | 10 | 131.4 | 136.5 | 94.6 |
| Feb 15 | CHI | 117–113 | 39-82 | 18-43 | 21-22 | 17 | 6 | 115.8 | 114.1 | 100.0 |
MIL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14 | @PHX | 116–104 | 40-85 | 12-39 | 24-37 | 12 | 13 | 116.0 | 103.0 | 100.5 |
| Mar 13 | @SAC | 133–124 | 50-86 | 15-33 | 18-22 | 12 | 5 | 130.4 | 121.6 | 102.0 |
| Mar 11 | @GSW | 116–125 | 43-100 | 21-51 | 9-11 | 17 | 7 | 101.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 |
| Mar 9 | BKN | 118–113 | 44-104 | 19-50 | 11-14 | 16 | 20 | 111.3 | 106.6 | 106.0 |
| Mar 7 | @ORL | 134–123 | 46-78 | 10-28 | 32-34 | 16 | 3 | 125.2 | 115.0 | 107.0 |
| Mar 5 | @WAS | 117–111 | 39-83 | 22-49 | 17-22 | 12 | 7 | 114.7 | 111.0 | 101.0 |
| Mar 4 | PHI | 130–133 | 44-83 | 17-34 | 25-28 | 13 | 11 | 135.4 | 138.5 | 96.0 |
| Mar 1 | ORL | 139–117 | 49-94 | 26-56 | 15-19 | 8 | 8 | 132.4 | 111.4 | 105.0 |
| Feb 28 | @BKN | 118–104 | 50-102 | 14-37 | 4-12 | 17 | 11 | 109.3 | 97.2 | 107.5 |
| Feb 26 | PHX | 104–101 | 38-87 | 13-45 | 15-21 | 11 | 11 | 109.5 | 107.4 | 94.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2022-23 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 139 | 123 |
| Field goals | 54–97 · 55.7% | 47–89 · 52.8% |
| Three-pointers | 22–46 · 47.8% | 11–32 · 34.4% |
| Free throws | 9–15 · 60.0% | 18–26 · 69.2% |
| Rebounds | 42 | 44 |
| Assists | 36 | 26 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 12 |
| Steals | 5 | 5 |
| Blocks | 3 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · Milwaukee Bucks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIL) | +15 | −16 | −31 |
| Total points | 237 | 262 | +25 |
| IND points | 111 | 139 | +28 |
| MIL points | 126 | 123 | −3 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27 2022-23 | MIL at IND | MIL 141 – 131 IND |
| Jan 16 2022-23 | IND at MIL | IND 119 – 132 MIL |
| Feb 15 2021-22 | IND at MIL | IND 119 – 128 MIL |
| Dec 15 2021-22 | IND at MIL | IND 99 – 114 MIL |
| Nov 28 2021-22 | MIL at IND | MIL 118 – 100 IND |