2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers

Monday, November 7, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 0–0@IND 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	119	122	+3
IND Indiana Pacers (home)	111	129	+18

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	IND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1561	1412
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−79
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.7	−2.7
Games played this season	9	9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.6	114.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.8	116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	8.9
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1561IND1412

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1561

Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
This season's 9 games: +43.2

W@BKN130–108+22.3
W@CHA124–112+15.5
LUTA121–122−5.1
WDAL113–111+4.6
L@PHX111–124−7.4
W@LAC112–91+17.5
L@LAL117–120−7.3
WGSW114–105+8.2
L@ATL121–124−5.1

IND1412

Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
This season's 9 games: +15.4

LWAS107–114−9.3
LSAS134–137−5.4
WDET124–115+7.9
L@PHI106–120−4.7
L@CHI109–124−7.4
W@WAS127–117+16.5
W@BKN125–116+16.0
L@BKN109–116−4.9
WMIA101–99+6.7

Season scoring marginNOP+1.7IND−2.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP+1.7

Scores 118.1, allows 113.0 over 9 games: +5.1 a game.

45% this season (+5.1) + 55% last season (−1.0) = +1.7

IND−2.7

Scores 115.8, allows 117.6 over 9 games: −1.8 a game.

45% this season (−1.8) + 55% last season (−3.5) = −2.7

Offensive rating, last 10NOP114.6IND114.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

NOP114.6scored, +3.3 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	53.4%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.6%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	23.8%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.207	−0.3
Everything else			−0.5

IND114.1scored, +2.8 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	53.4%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.6%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.207	−0.1
Everything else			+2.5

Defensive rating, last 10NOP110.8IND116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.3).

NOP110.8allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	53.4%	−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.6%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.207	+0.2
Everything else			+0.3

IND116.5allowed, +5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.1%	53.4%	−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.6%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.1%	23.8%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.275	0.207	−2.0
Everything else			+0.5

Pace, last 10average 100.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 99.3 and IND 102.4 → average 100.8 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0IND8.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-07 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

IND8.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Chris Duarte	8.9	19.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-07 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysIND3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Nov 5 against ATL.

IND3days

Last played Nov 4 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 5	@ATL	121–124	47-108	7-23	20-28	16	19	107.1	108.8	102.8
Nov 4	GSW	114–105	41-81	12-29	20-29	15	9	115.2	106.1	99.0
Nov 2	@LAL	117–120	47-102	8-25	15-21	13	11	101.7	103.4	104.6
Oct 30	@LAC	112–91	46-93	15-36	5-8	10	12	117.9	96.8	94.5
Oct 28	@PHX	111–124	38-86	15-37	20-22	13	9	112.1	125.3	99.0
Oct 25	DAL	113–111	44-76	12-27	13-18	14	4	120.2	119.4	93.5
Oct 23	UTA	121–122	48-102	8-27	17-22	17	14	109.0	110.9	100.1
Oct 21	@CHA	124–112	42-89	8-22	32-37	15	15	119.2	108.7	103.5
Oct 19	@BKN	130–108	50-102	12-26	18-25	12	21	127.5	105.9	102.0
Apr 28	PHX	109–115	42-83	8-24	17-19	16	12	116.0	122.3	94.0

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	MIA	101–99	37-80	12-39	15-23	19	5	100.0	96.1	102.0
Oct 31	@BKN	109–116	41-87	11-39	16-23	24	10	104.8	110.5	104.5
Oct 29	@BKN	125–116	40-94	23-46	22-26	10	17	128.9	120.8	96.5
Oct 28	@WAS	127–117	41-81	15-29	30-33	13	5	125.7	115.8	101.0
Oct 26	@CHI	109–124	37-86	16-40	19-24	16	6	105.8	120.4	103.0
Oct 24	@PHI	106–120	38-90	12-44	18-23	13	14	112.8	129.0	93.5
Oct 22	DET	124–115	45-103	16-42	18-24	11	20	121.6	111.7	102.5
Oct 21	SAS	134–137	51-104	11-35	21-22	16	14	118.6	123.4	112.0
Oct 19	WAS	107–114	39-97	15-42	14-21	15	12	102.9	108.6	104.5
Apr 10	@BKN	126–134	47-104	19-46	13-19	7	11	120.0	128.8	104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner

the forecast favored NOP

15 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual +7 for IND

69th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

296th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	IND
Final score	122	129
Field goals	48–97 · 49.5%	43–86 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	14–34 · 41.2%	22–48 · 45.8%
Free throws	12–17 · 70.6%	21–23 · 91.3%
Rebounds	43	45
Assists	32	33
Turnovers	10	17
Steals	7	6
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (IND)	−8	+7	+15
Total points	230	251	+21
NOP points	119	122	+3
IND points	111	129	+18

Recent form before this game