The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 15

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Saturday, April 15, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 3–3@CLE 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 24 percent, CLE 76 percent. NYK Knicks 24% proj. 107 · final 101 CLE Cavaliers · home 76% proj. 118 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 107 101 −6
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 118 97 −21

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKCLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15801596
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +86
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.9+5.4
Games played this season 8282
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 122.0116.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.0110.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1580CLE1596

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1580

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 72 games: +83.4
  3. Last 10 games: −17.5
  • LMIN134–140−12.7
  • L@MIA120–127−8.1
  • L@ORL106–111−8.7
  • WHOU137–115+3.2
  • WMIA101–92+5.2
  • W@CLE130–116+18.5
  • WWAS118–109+3.9
  • W@IND138–129+5.7
  • L@NOP105–113−9.2
  • LIND136–141−15.3

CLE1596

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1495 → started this one at 1496
  2. First 72 games: +106.9
  3. Last 10 games: −7.1
  • WWAS117–94+8.1
  • W@BKN115–109+6.6
  • W@BKN116–114+3.9
  • WHOU108–91+2.0
  • L@ATL118–120−6.0
  • LNYK116–130−18.5
  • WIND115–105+3.0
  • W@ORL117–113+5.2
  • W@ORL118–94+14.7
  • LCHA95–106−26.1
Season scoring marginNYK+2.9CLE+5.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+2.9

Scores 116.0, allows 113.1 over 82 games: +2.9 a game.

CLE+5.4

Scores 112.3, allows 106.9 over 82 games: +5.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK122.0CLE116.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

NYK122.0scored, +7.9 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.0%54.7%+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.0%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%23.8%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.211−0.5
Everything else−0.3

CLE116.9scored, +2.8 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.7%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%12.0%+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%23.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.211−0.8
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10NYK119.0CLE110.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

NYK119.0allowed, +4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.8%54.7%−7.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.0%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.6%23.8%+3.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.211−0.6
Everything else−0.6

CLE110.8allowed, −3.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.7%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.0%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%23.8%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.211−0.5
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 100.1 and CLE 97.2 → average 98.7 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0CLE0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-15 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestNYK5 daysCLE5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK5days

Last played Apr 9 against IND (6 days, capped at 5).

CLE5days

Last played Apr 9 against CHA (6 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 9IND136–14152-10815-4017-221519122.5127.0111.0
Apr 7@NOP105–11338-8814-4315-2097110.5117.795.5
Apr 5@IND138–12952-10018-4616-251420130.2124.0105.0
Apr 2WAS118–10946-8813-3213-18117118.0109.0100.0
Mar 31@CLE130–11649-9317-3615-24716136.8123.494.5
Mar 29MIA101–9238-7613-3112-23159111.0100.091.5
Mar 27HOU137–11550-8617-3920-28107134.3115.0101.0
Mar 23@ORL106–11137-8812-4020-261313108.2111.099.0
Mar 22@MIA120–12742-8216-4020-25169120.0128.399.5
Mar 20MIN134–14048-8514-2824-28167128.8134.6104.0

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 9CHA95–10635-8910-3715-16161194.1105.0101.0
Apr 6@ORL118–9446-8818-388-9169118.093.1100.5
Apr 4@ORL117–11342-8415-3118-2085120.6118.996.0
Apr 2IND115–10544-909-2418-261013115.0104.0100.5
Mar 31NYK116–13044-8617-3711-13103123.4136.894.5
Mar 28@ATL118–12047-939-2515-22810118.0120.0100.0
Mar 26HOU108–9139-839-3021-24913117.4100.091.5
Mar 23@BKN116–11442-8912-3220-26913119.6117.597.0
Mar 21@BKN115–10942-8314-2917-21148121.1114.795.0
Mar 17WAS117–9448-874-1917-22109121.997.996.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
15 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −4 for CLE
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
296th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKCLE
Final score10197
Field goals37–88 · 42.0%36–83 · 43.4%
Three-pointers8–29 · 27.6%10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws19–22 · 86.4%15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds5138
Assists1820
Turnovers1314
Steals119
Blocks12

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+11−4−15
Total points225198−27
NYK points107101−6
CLE points11897−21

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 9 vs IND L 136–141
Apr 7 at NOP L 105–113
Apr 5 at IND W 138–129
Apr 2 vs WAS W 118–109
Mar 31 at CLE W 130–116

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 9 vs CHA L 95–106
Apr 6 at ORL W 118–94
Apr 4 at ORL W 117–113
Apr 2 vs IND W 115–105
Mar 31 vs NYK L 116–130

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 31 2022-23 NYK at CLE NYK 130 – 116 CLE
Jan 24 2022-23 CLE at NYK CLE 103 – 105 NYK
Dec 4 2022-23 CLE at NYK CLE 81 – 92 NYK
Oct 30 2022-23 NYK at CLE NYK 108 – 121 CLE
Apr 2 2021-22 CLE at NYK CLE 119 – 101 NYK