2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
NYK 1–3@PHI 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYK New York Knicks | 112 | 138 | +26 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) | 111 | 89 | −22 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | NYK | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1586 | 1519 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +3 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +5.3 | +1.2 |
| Games played this season | 53 | 53 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.4 | 118.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 105.6 | 118.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 30.7 | 18.7 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingNYK1586PHI1519
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
NYK1586
- Ended last season at 1606 → started this one at 1580
- First 43 games: −63.1
- Last 10 games: +70.0
- W@PHI112–109+6.4
- WSAC103–87+5.1
- W@TOR119–92+26.5
- WPOR127–97+12.7
- WLAL112–100+7.2
- W@WAS132–101+9.1
- WDEN134–127+5.5
- L@DET80–118−18.0
- W@BOS111–89+28.2
- LIND134–137−12.7
PHI1519
- Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
- First 43 games: +144.3
- Last 10 games: +33.8
- LNYK109–112−6.4
- L@CHA93–130−14.9
- WMIL139–122+9.7
- WSAC113–111+2.2
- WNOP124–114+4.8
- W@LAC128–113+22.1
- W@GSW113–94+23.9
- L@LAL115–119−4.9
- W@PHX109–103+11.2
- L@POR118–135−13.9
Season scoring marginNYK+5.3PHI+1.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
NYK+5.3
Scores 117.4, allows 112.1 over 53 games: +5.3 a game.
PHI+1.2
Scores 116.7, allows 115.5 over 53 games: +1.2 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10NYK116.4PHI118.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
NYK116.4scored, +1.8 vs league
| Factor | NYK | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.5% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.5% | 12.2% | +2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.171 | 0.211 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
PHI118.9scored, +4.3 vs league
| Factor | PHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.5% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.6% | 12.2% | +2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.250 | 0.211 | +1.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10NYK105.6PHI118.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
NYK105.6allowed, −9.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.7% | 54.5% | +5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.2% | +0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.211 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +2.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
PHI118.0allowed, +3.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.9% | 54.5% | −5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.1% | 12.2% | +2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.211 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 97.3
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
NYK 96.9 and PHI 97.8 → average 97.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingNYK30.7PHI18.7
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
NYK30.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby | 21.7 | 34.6 | 7 |
| Miles McBride | 9.0 | 28.0 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
PHI18.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul George | 18.7 | 33.8 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-11 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestNYK1 daysPHI2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
NYK1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 10 against IND.
PHI2days
Last played Feb 9 against POR.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
NYK
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 | IND | 134–137 | 50-100 | 14-46 | 20-27 | 12 | – | 119.6 | 120.2 | 102.3 |
| Feb 8 | @BOS | 111–89 | 40-83 | 14-35 | 17-24 | 8 | – | 120.7 | 94.7 | 93.0 |
| Feb 6 | @DET | 80–118 | 29-82 | 8-33 | 14-17 | 13 | – | 84.2 | 126.9 | 94.0 |
| Feb 4 | DEN | 134–127 | 50-100 | 18-50 | 16-19 | 11 | – | 120.7 | 114.4 | 91.9 |
| Feb 3 | @WAS | 132–101 | 47-90 | 17-37 | 21-27 | 9 | – | 130.7 | 100.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | LAL | 112–100 | 43-91 | 18-42 | 8-11 | 7 | – | 120.4 | 107.5 | 93.0 |
| Jan 30 | POR | 127–97 | 48-99 | 19-45 | 12-14 | 13 | – | 127.0 | 97.0 | 100.0 |
| Jan 28 | @TOR | 119–92 | 45-90 | 14-38 | 15-18 | 16 | – | 117.8 | 92.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 27 | SAC | 103–87 | 37-78 | 13-32 | 16-18 | 18 | – | 108.4 | 90.6 | 95.5 |
| Jan 24 | @PHI | 112–109 | 41-93 | 15-44 | 15-27 | 10 | – | 114.3 | 112.4 | 97.5 |
PHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9 | @POR | 118–135 | 38-81 | 11-30 | 31-36 | 13 | – | 115.7 | 132.4 | 102.0 |
| Feb 7 | @PHX | 109–103 | 35-74 | 11-29 | 28-34 | 17 | – | 111.2 | 107.3 | 97.0 |
| Feb 5 | @LAL | 115–119 | 45-84 | 5-24 | 20-23 | 14 | – | 111.7 | 114.4 | 103.5 |
| Feb 3 | @GSW | 113–94 | 42-93 | 13-38 | 16-21 | 12 | – | 124.2 | 103.3 | 91.0 |
| Feb 2 | @LAC | 128–113 | 45-94 | 17-39 | 21-22 | 5 | – | 134.7 | 121.5 | 94.0 |
| Jan 31 | NOP | 124–114 | 45-94 | 17-36 | 17-23 | 9 | – | 121.6 | 114.0 | 101.0 |
| Jan 29 | SAC | 113–111 | 39-72 | 8-25 | 27-31 | 9 | – | 124.2 | 120.7 | 91.5 |
| Jan 27 | MIL | 139–122 | 53-101 | 22-42 | 11-15 | 6 | – | 141.8 | 123.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 26 | @CHA | 93–130 | 35-89 | 9-30 | 14-19 | 17 | – | 91.2 | 128.7 | 101.5 |
| Jan 24 | NYK | 109–112 | 39-77 | 9-29 | 22-29 | 13 | – | 112.4 | 114.3 | 97.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | NYK | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 138 | 89 |
| Field goals | 48–91 · 52.7% | 33–88 · 37.5% |
| Three-pointers | 20–44 · 45.5% | 6–32 · 18.8% |
| Free throws | 22–27 · 81.5% | 17–21 · 81.0% |
| Rebounds | 51 | 38 |
| Assists | 41 | 16 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 18 |
| Steals | 13 | 9 |
| Blocks | 6 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Philadelphia 76ers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (PHI) | −1 | −49 | −48 |
| Total points | 223 | 227 | +4 |
| NYK points | 112 | 138 | +26 |
| PHI points | 111 | 89 | −22 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24 2025-26 | NYK at PHI | NYK 112 – 109 PHI |
| Jan 3 2025-26 | PHI at NYK | PHI 130 – 119 NYK |
| Dec 19 2025-26 | PHI at NYK | PHI 116 – 107 NYK |
| Apr 1 2024-25 | PHI at NYK | PHI 91 – 105 NYK |
| Feb 26 2024-25 | PHI at NYK | PHI 105 – 110 NYK |