2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
NYK 4–4@CLE 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYK New York Knicks | 113 | 109 | −4 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) | 108 | 97 | −11 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhy the model leans NYK
- Home court+2.1 CLEWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
- Team strength+4.3 NYKElo CLE 1582, NYK 1679; season margin CLE +3.6, NYK +6.7.
- Player availability+1.9 NYKNYK without Josh Hart (9 ppg); CLE without Jarrett Allen (13 ppg) and Jaylon Tyson (8 ppg) and 1 more.
Together: NYK by 5, a 65% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.
Team-by-team notes from the box scores
NYK is 4–4, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 110, allowing 105). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.6, ball security +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.9% of opponent possessions (league 13.3%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +2.8, defensive rebounding +2.2. Josh Hart (9 ppg) is out.
CLE is 5–4, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 115). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 54% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.1, offensive rebounding −1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 11.0% of opponent possessions (league 13.3%), which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +2.2. Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill are out (29 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.
Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.
How the projected margin was built
Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CLE; left favors NYK.
Every input the model received, with its effect
| Input | NYK | CLE | Effect, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1679 | 1582 | −0.6 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −26 | −2.3 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +6.7 | +3.6 | −0.9 |
| Games played this season | 8 | 9 | −0.5 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.9 | 113.6 | −0.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.4 | 113.3 | −0.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.0 | +1.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 8.6 | 28.7 | −1.9 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes | −0.1 |
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
| Input | Value | CLE pts | NYK pts | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo gap incl. home court | -26.3 | −1.19 | +1.14 | −2.33 |
| Season scoring margin (away) | 6.7 | −1.14 | +0.36 | −1.50 |
| Rotation points missing (home) | 28.7 | −1.10 | +0.13 | −1.22 |
| Elo rating (away) | 1678.7 | −1.40 | −0.30 | −1.10 |
| Combined pace, last 10 | 99.0 | −0.12 | −1.08 | +0.96 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (away) | 110.4 | −0.98 | −0.04 | −0.94 |
| Rotation points missing (away) | 8.6 | −0.19 | +0.48 | −0.67 |
| Season scoring margin (home) | 3.6 | +0.43 | −0.14 | +0.56 |
| Elo rating (home) | 1582.4 | +0.19 | −0.30 | +0.49 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (home) | 113.6 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.40 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (home) | 113.3 | −0.16 | −0.52 | +0.36 |
| Games played (away) | 8.0 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.30 |
| Games played (home) | 9.0 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.16 |
| Rest days (home) | 1.0 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 |
| Home series wins | 0.0 | +0.22 | +0.09 | +0.13 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (away) | 113.9 | +0.05 | +0.15 | −0.10 |
| Back-to-back (home) | 1 | −0.09 | ±0.00 | −0.09 |
| Series pressure | 0.0 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| Elimination game | 0 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 |
| Rest days (away) | 3.0 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 |
| Back-to-back (away) | 0 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 |
| Baseline (average output) | 114.4 | 112.4 | +2.07 |
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingNYK1679CLE15822.9 pts toward NYK
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
NYK1679
- Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
- This season's 8 games: −36.3
- LPHI100–106−16.0
- L@BOS103–107−7.1
- LORL102–111−19.8
- WDET111–97+8.5
- W@CHI133–127+2.5
- L@PHI93–98−8.9
- WBKN103–90+1.3
- WCHI135–105+3.2
CLE1582
- Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
- This season's 9 games: +8.6
- L@PHI106–114−7.9
- WBKN125–121+1.3
- WMIN127–125+4.3
- WWAS121–111+2.0
- L@ATL111–114−4.7
- W@MIL136–111+10.3
- LOKC112–117−6.9
- L@OKC116–124−4.6
- WPHI119–95+14.8
Season scoring marginNYK+6.7CLE+3.61.4 pts toward NYK
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
NYK+6.7
Scores 110.0, allows 105.1 over 8 games: +4.9 a game.
40% this season (+4.9) + 60% last season (+7.9) = +6.7
CLE+3.6
Scores 119.2, allows 114.7 over 9 games: +4.6 a game.
45% this season (+4.6) + 55% last season (+2.8) = +3.6
Offensive rating, last 10NYK113.9CLE113.60.5 pts toward NYK
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).
NYK113.9scored, +1.6 vs league
| Factor | NYK | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% | 53.3% | −2.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 13.3% | +1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.9% | 27.3% | +1.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.224 | 0.228 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.3 |
CLE113.6scored, +1.3 vs league
| Factor | CLE | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 53.3% | +1.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 13.3% | +1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.9% | 27.3% | −1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.225 | 0.228 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10NYK110.4CLE113.30.6 pts toward NYK
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).
NYK110.4allowed, −1.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.5% | 53.3% | +2.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 13.3% | −3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.4% | 27.3% | +2.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.208 | 0.228 | +0.6 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
CLE113.3allowed, +1.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% | 53.3% | +2.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.0% | 13.3% | −3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.4% | 27.3% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.228 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
Pace, last 10average 99.01.0 pts toward CLE
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
NYK 96.3 and CLE 101.7 → average 99.0 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)
Rotation points missingNYK8.6CLE28.71.9 pts toward NYK
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
NYK8.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | 8.6 | 31.7 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
CLE28.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Allen | 13.2 | 25.3 | 8 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 7.8 | 20.7 | 5 |
| Sam Merrill | 7.7 | 23.1 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestNYK3 daysCLE1 days0.2 pts toward NYK
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
NYK3days
Last played Nov 4 against CHI.
CLE1day, back-to-back
Last played Nov 6 against PHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
NYK
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | CHI | 135–105 | 44-87 | 17-40 | 30-37 | 13 | 17 | 133.7 | 105.0 | 100.5 |
| Nov 2 | BKN | 103–90 | 31-75 | 17-44 | 24-29 | 15 | 11 | 114.4 | 98.9 | 90.5 |
| Oct 30 | @PHI | 93–98 | 35-86 | 13-41 | 10-14 | 13 | 14 | 103.3 | 108.9 | 90.0 |
| Oct 28 | @CHI | 133–127 | 47-105 | 22-48 | 17-20 | 12 | 16 | 127.9 | 122.1 | 104.0 |
| Oct 27 | DET | 111–97 | 38-88 | 12-36 | 23-28 | 18 | 19 | 114.4 | 100.0 | 97.0 |
| Oct 25 | ORL | 102–111 | 38-93 | 9-38 | 17-24 | 14 | 12 | 102.0 | 112.1 | 99.5 |
| Oct 23 | @BOS | 103–107 | 36-80 | 16-40 | 15-21 | 16 | 12 | 110.8 | 116.3 | 92.5 |
| Oct 20 | PHI | 100–106 | 35-94 | 11-33 | 19-27 | 14 | 14 | 98.0 | 103.9 | 102.0 |
| Jun 10 | SAS | 107–106 | 36-78 | 15-32 | 20-28 | 13 | 8 | 115.1 | 112.8 | 93.5 |
| Jun 8 | SAS | 111–115 | 40-88 | 13-37 | 18-22 | 13 | 12 | 119.4 | 123.7 | 93.0 |
CLE
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | PHI | 119–95 | 40-88 | 13-37 | 26-34 | 15 | 14 | 117.8 | 94.1 | 101.0 |
| Nov 4 | @OKC | 116–124 | 40-93 | 19-49 | 17-19 | 12 | 10 | 113.7 | 120.4 | 102.5 |
| Nov 2 | OKC | 112–117 | 40-90 | 18-49 | 14-24 | 7 | 11 | 116.7 | 120.6 | 96.5 |
| Oct 31 | @MIL | 136–111 | 52-100 | 20-46 | 12-18 | 11 | 14 | 129.5 | 105.7 | 105.0 |
| Oct 29 | @ATL | 111–114 | 38-87 | 13-42 | 22-29 | 9 | 9 | 113.3 | 116.3 | 98.0 |
| Oct 28 | WAS | 121–111 | 43-91 | 14-38 | 21-22 | 13 | 15 | 127.4 | 119.4 | 94.0 |
| Oct 26 | MIN | 127–125 | 46-102 | 18-45 | 17-23 | 12 | 13 | 112.4 | 112.6 | 101.4 |
| Oct 24 | BKN | 125–121 | 40-79 | 16-38 | 29-38 | 23 | 9 | 116.8 | 113.1 | 107.0 |
| Oct 22 | @PHI | 106–114 | 39-87 | 7-29 | 21-28 | 21 | 10 | 97.2 | 103.6 | 109.5 |
| May 25 | NYK | 93–130 | 32-77 | 11-40 | 18-22 | 22 | 6 | 91.2 | 127.5 | 102.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | NYK | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 109 | 97 |
| Field goals | 41–96 · 42.7% | 35–82 · 42.7% |
| Three-pointers | 14–44 · 31.8% | 16–50 · 32.0% |
| Free throws | 13–14 · 92.9% | 11–19 · 57.9% |
| Rebounds | 49 | 40 |
| Assists | 27 | 23 |
| Turnovers | 7 | 11 |
| Steals | 7 | 3 |
| Blocks | 4 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Cleveland Cavaliers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CLE) | −5 | −12 | −7 |
| Total points | 221 | 206 | −15 |
| NYK points | 113 | 109 | −4 |
| CLE points | 108 | 97 | −11 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
New York Knicks
- Out Josh Hart · Right Ankle Soreness
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Out Jarrett Allen · Right Knee Contusion
- Out Jaylon Tyson · Right Ankle Sprain
- Out Nae'Qwan Tomlin
- Out Sam Merrill
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 2025-26 | NYK at CLE | NYK 130 – 93 CLE |
| May 23 2025-26 | NYK at CLE | NYK 121 – 108 CLE |
| May 21 2025-26 | CLE at NYK | CLE 93 – 109 NYK |
| May 19 2025-26 | CLE at NYK | CLE 104 – 115 NYK |
| Feb 24 2025-26 | NYK at CLE | NYK 94 – 109 CLE |