The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

NYK 0–1@BOS 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 62 percent, BOS 38 percent. NYK Knicks 62% proj. 112 · final 103 BOS Celtics · home 38% proj. 108 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 112 103 −9
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 108 107 −1

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 BOSWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.9 NYKElo BOS 1595, NYK 1699; season margin BOS +6.5, NYK +7.2.
  • Recent form+1.7 NYKLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BOS scores 115.4 and allows 111.3; NYK scores 117.3 and allows 106.0.

Together: NYK by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 0–1, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 100, allowing 106). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 10.7% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.7.

BOS is 0–1, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 121). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.1% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line −1.1. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.3, defensive rebounding +2.1.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BOS; left favors NYK.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −4.9, Recent form −1.7, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.2, Player availability +0.1, giving −3.9 for BOS. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −4.9 Recent form −1.7 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.2 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin −3.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −3.9. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNYKBOSEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16991595 −0.8
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −35 −2.7
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.2+6.5 −0.5
Games played this season 11 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.3115.4 +0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 106.0111.3 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.9 −1.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 33 +0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueBOS ptsNYK ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-34.6−1.04+1.64−2.68
Combined pace, last 1096.9−3.91−2.59−1.32
Season scoring margin (away)7.2−1.06+0.23−1.29
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)106.0−1.33−0.23−1.10
Elo rating (away)1699.2−0.77+0.25−1.02
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.77−0.11+0.88
Games played (away)1.0+0.19+1.04−0.85
Season scoring margin (home)6.5+0.28−0.51+0.79
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.21+0.53−0.73
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.3−0.47−0.94+0.46
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.4+0.20−0.13+0.33
Elo rating (home)1594.6+0.01−0.21+0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.10+0.16
Rest days (home)3.0+0.11−0.03+0.14
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)117.3+0.03+0.10−0.07
Series pressure0.0+0.08+0.03+0.05
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.05
Games played (home)1.0+0.57+0.61−0.04
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1699BOS15953.5 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1699

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 1 game: −16.0
  • LPHI100–106−16.0

BOS1595

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1635 → started this one at 1601
  2. This season's 1 game: −6.7
  • L@DET113–121−6.7
Season scoring marginNYK+7.2BOS+6.51.4 pts toward NYK

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+7.2

Scores 100.0, allows 106.0 over 1 game: −6.0 a game.

5% this season (−6.0) + 95% last season (+7.9) = +7.2

BOS+6.5

Scores 113.0, allows 121.0 over 1 game: −8.0 a game.

5% this season (−8.0) + 95% last season (+7.3) = +6.5

Offensive rating, last 10NYK117.3BOS115.40.3 pts toward BOS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK117.3scored, +2.7 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.5%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210−0.2
Everything else−0.2

BOS115.4scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.5%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210−1.1
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10NYK106.0BOS111.30.6 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK106.0allowed, −8.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.0%26.1%+2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+0.1

BOS111.3allowed, −3.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.2%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%26.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210−0.2
Everything else−1.5
Pace, last 10average 96.91.3 pts toward NYK

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 97.1 and BOS 96.7 → average 96.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0BOS0.00.1 pts toward BOS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestNYK3 daysBOS3 days0.2 pts toward BOS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK3days

Last played Oct 20 against PHI.

BOS3days

Last played Oct 20 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5
May 25@CLE130–9348-9819-4315-201320127.591.2102.0
May 23@CLE121–10843-7711-2824-27148124.7110.297.5
May 21CLE109–9344-8513-368-1465122.5104.589.0
May 19CLE115–10442-8810-3221-32179105.596.398.3
May 10@PHI144–11449-9125-4421-29915146.9116.398.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20@DET113–12140-8817-4216-211412113.0119.8100.5
May 2PHI100–10937-9313-4913-16510105.3116.094.5
Apr 30@PHI93–10636-8612-419-1613893.0107.199.5
Apr 28PHI97–11336-8911-3914-231215103.2120.294.0
Apr 26@PHI128–9642-8724-5320-281214139.1102.193.0
Apr 24@PHI108–10036-8120-4716-171715121.3112.489.0
Apr 21PHI97–11135-8913-5014-181118107.8126.189.0
Apr 19PHI123–9145-9016-4417-2285126.893.897.0
Apr 12ORL113–10836-8719-5022-22177107.6102.9105.0
Apr 10NOP144–11852-9629-5911-15139137.1112.4105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
38%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
8 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual +4 for BOS
17th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
79th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.96 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKBOS
Final score103107
Field goals36–80 · 45.0%40–87 · 46.0%
Three-pointers16–40 · 40.0%15–39 · 38.5%
Free throws15–21 · 71.4%12–16 · 75.0%
Rebounds4437
Assists2725
Turnovers1610
Steals67
Blocks24

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)−4+4+8
Total points220210−10
NYK points112103−9
BOS points108107−1

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 vs PHI L 100–106
Jun 10 vs SAS W 107–106
Jun 8 vs SAS L 111–115
Jun 5 at SAS W 105–104
Jun 3 at SAS W 105–95

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 at DET L 113–121
May 2 vs PHI L 100–109
Apr 30 at PHI L 93–106
Apr 28 vs PHI L 97–113
Apr 26 at PHI W 128–96

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 9 2025-26 BOS at NYK BOS 106 – 112 NYK
Feb 8 2025-26 NYK at BOS NYK 111 – 89 BOS
Dec 2 2025-26 NYK at BOS NYK 117 – 123 BOS
Oct 24 2025-26 BOS at NYK BOS 95 – 105 NYK
May 16 2024-25 BOS at NYK BOS 81 – 119 NYK