2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks

Wednesday, January 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 2–0@NYK 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
BKN Brooklyn Nets	110	66	−44
NYK New York Knicks (home)	114	120	+6

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	BKN	NYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1359	1503
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+215
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.4	+2.8
Games played this season	41	42
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.1	109.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.7	118.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1359NYK1503

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1359

Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
First 31 games: +56.7
Last 10 games: −38.2

L@WAS99–119−17.3
WDEN127–115+19.6
LORL103–104−3.4
LLAC105–121−11.7
L@MEM98–103−3.6
L@DAL105–113−6.1
L@NOP113–116−5.1
WCHI112–109+5.4
L@CHI102–124−10.8
LPHX117–126−5.2

NYK1503

Ended last season at 1606 → started this one at 1580
First 32 games: +24.5
Last 10 games: −100.6

LATL99–111−22.1
LPHI119–130−19.9
L@DET90–121−13.2
WLAC123–111+7.9
L@PHX107–112−4.9
W@POR123–114+10.5
L@SAC101–112−16.0
L@GSW113–126−8.8
LPHX99–106−9.5
LDAL97–114−24.6

Season scoring marginBKN−5.4NYK+2.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−5.4

Scores 109.0, allows 114.3 over 41 games: −5.4 a game.

NYK+2.8

Scores 117.5, allows 114.8 over 42 games: +2.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BKN113.1NYK109.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

BKN113.1scored, −1.8 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.5%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.213	−0.8
Everything else			+0.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

NYK109.7scored, −5.2 vs league

Factor	NYK	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.6%	54.5%	−6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.213	−1.1
Everything else			+2.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10BKN120.7NYK118.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

BKN120.7allowed, +5.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.2%	54.5%	−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.2%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.213	+1.0
Everything else			−1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

NYK118.7allowed, +3.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.1%	54.5%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.213	−0.2
Everything else			+0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 96.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 94.8 and NYK 97.8 → average 96.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingBKN0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-21 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN2days

Last played Jan 19 against PHX.

NYK2days

Last played Jan 19 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 19	PHX	117–126	41-81	15-38	20-21	7	–	130.0	141.6	89.5
Jan 18	@CHI	102–124	38-83	16-37	10-15	11	–	109.7	134.8	92.5
Jan 16	CHI	112–109	39-91	19-40	15-17	14	–	114.3	110.1	98.5
Jan 14	@NOP	113–116	45-95	16-43	7-12	10	–	115.3	118.4	98.0
Jan 12	@DAL	105–113	39-86	9-37	18-20	17	–	109.4	117.7	96.0
Jan 11	@MEM	98–103	36-88	18-48	8-16	10	–	106.5	113.2	91.5
Jan 9	LAC	105–121	40-100	15-47	10-11	12	–	112.9	130.1	93.0
Jan 7	ORL	103–104	36-86	17-51	14-22	19	–	103.0	102.0	91.5
Jan 4	DEN	127–115	41-81	14-33	31-37	10	–	133.7	122.3	94.5
Jan 2	@WAS	99–119	34-86	6-29	25-28	16	–	96.1	116.7	102.5

NYK

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 19	DAL	97–114	38-95	9-31	12-20	17	–	92.4	108.6	105.0
Jan 17	PHX	99–106	33-82	14-44	19-25	17	–	107.6	114.0	92.5
Jan 15	@GSW	113–126	42-91	14-38	15-19	10	–	120.2	134.0	94.0
Jan 14	@SAC	101–112	39-100	8-41	15-23	9	–	101.0	113.1	99.5
Jan 11	@POR	123–114	50-99	17-46	6-8	12	–	123.0	114.0	100.0
Jan 9	@PHX	107–112	37-82	16-41	17-21	17	–	113.8	120.4	93.5
Jan 7	LAC	123–111	47-94	14-33	15-17	10	–	130.9	120.7	93.0
Jan 5	@DET	90–121	32-76	13-30	13-14	20	–	95.7	130.1	93.5
Jan 3	PHI	119–130	38-89	16-40	27-32	16	–	116.7	125.0	103.0
Jan 2	ATL	99–111	36-97	9-42	18-21	14	–	95.2	106.7	104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

61%

pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner

NYK was the forecast favorite

50 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual +54 for NYK

713th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

4th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	BKN	NYK
Final score	66	120
Field goals	23–79 · 29.1%	46–80 · 57.5%
Three-pointers	11–40 · 27.5%	16–32 · 50.0%
Free throws	9–13 · 69.2%	12–17 · 70.6%
Rebounds	27	56
Assists	15	28
Turnovers	14	12
Steals	5	10
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+4	+54	+50
Total points	224	186	−38
BKN points	110	66	−44
NYK points	114	120	+6

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 19	vs PHX	L 117–126
Jan 18	at CHI	L 102–124
Jan 16	vs CHI	W 112–109
Jan 14	at NOP	L 113–116
Jan 12	at DAL	L 105–113

New York Knicks

Date	Opponent	Result
Jan 19	vs DAL	L 97–114
Jan 17	vs PHX	L 99–106
Jan 15	at GSW	L 113–126
Jan 14	at SAC	L 101–112
Jan 11	at POR	W 123–114

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Nov 24 2025-26	NYK at BKN	NYK 113 – 100 BKN
Nov 9 2025-26	BKN at NYK	BKN 98 – 134 NYK
Apr 13 2024-25	NYK at BKN	NYK 113 – 105 BKN
Jan 21 2024-25	NYK at BKN	NYK 99 – 95 BKN
Nov 17 2024-25	BKN at NYK	BKN 104 – 114 NYK

Forecast and result

Inside the Forecast

Built from the box scores

The result against the forecast

Where the forecast differed from the result

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

New York Knicks

Previous meetings