The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 16

2024-25 · Playoffs · Final

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Friday, May 16, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 2–5@NYK 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 36 percent, NYK 64 percent. BOS Celtics 36% proj. 96 · final 81 NYK Knicks · home 64% proj. 101 · final 119
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 96 81 −15
NYK New York Knicks (home) 101 119 +18

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16951576
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −49
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +9.2+3.3
Games played this season 9293
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.5108.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 106.4112.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 93.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 28.10.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1695NYK1576

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1695

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 82 games: −0.5
  3. Last 10 games: +13.4
  • WORL103–86+5.2
  • WORL109–100+3.3
  • L@ORL93–95−6.8
  • W@ORL107–98+6.7
  • WORL120–89+7.3
  • LNYK105–108−10.0
  • LNYK90–91−6.9
  • W@NYK115–93+16.3
  • L@NYK113–121−10.9
  • WNYK127–102+9.2

NYK1576

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
  2. First 83 games: +17.1
  3. Last 10 games: +0.9
  • LDET94–100−10.9
  • W@DET118–116+5.9
  • W@DET94–93+4.8
  • LDET103–106−7.9
  • W@DET116–113+6.7
  • W@BOS108–105+10.0
  • W@BOS91–90+6.9
  • LBOS93–115−16.3
  • WBOS121–113+10.9
  • L@BOS102–127−9.2
Season scoring marginBOS+9.2NYK+3.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+9.2

Scores 115.4, allows 106.2 over 92 games: +9.2 a game.

NYK+3.3

Scores 114.6, allows 111.3 over 93 games: +3.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS117.5NYK108.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

BOS117.5scored, +3.8 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.3%−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.0%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%25.3%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2350.193+1.2
Everything else+0.9

NYK108.0scored, −5.7 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.7%54.3%−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.0%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%25.3%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.193+0.7
Everything else−1.5
Defensive rating, last 10BOS106.4NYK112.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

BOS106.4allowed, −7.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.3%54.3%+9.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.0%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%25.3%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.193+0.0
Everything else+0.7

NYK112.9allowed, −0.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.3%+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.0%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%25.3%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.193−1.4
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 93.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 91.4 and NYK 95.0 → average 93.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.4)

Rotation points missingBOS28.1NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS28.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jayson Tatum28.140.28

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-16 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-16 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played May 14 against NYK.

NYK2days

Last played May 14 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 14NYK127–10244-8422-4917-26811139.6112.191.0
May 12@NYK113–12138-7918-4819-26127120.2128.794.0
May 10@NYK115–9340-8320-4015-17812129.2103.389.5
May 7NYK90–9134-9410-4012-15161694.794.895.5
May 5NYK105–10834-9715-6022-261319104.0105.991.9
Apr 29ORL120–8943-7613-2421-24113129.095.793.0
Apr 27@ORL107–9834-789-3130-321011115.1105.493.0
Apr 25@ORL93–9533-749-2718-22198102.2105.690.5
Apr 23ORL109–10036-8012-3725-331013122.5113.688.5
Apr 20ORL103–8637-8216-3713-1899118.498.987.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 14@BOS102–12729-8112-3032-401012112.1139.691.0
May 12BOS121–11350-9212-349-121213128.7120.294.0
May 10BOS93–11532-805-2524-351117103.3129.289.5
May 7@BOS91–9037-869-318-10151094.894.795.5
May 5@BOS108–10537-8717-3717-311212105.9104.091.9
May 1@DET116–11341-8610-3024-301613112.6110.8102.5
Apr 29DET103–10639-909-2516-271315106.2108.297.5
Apr 27@DET94–9334-9115-3311-18101298.998.994.5
Apr 24@DET118–11640-8612-3226-2999120.4118.498.0
Apr 21DET94–10034-8110-3516-1914796.9105.396.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
64%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual +38 for NYK
807th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
29th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSNYK
Final score81119
Field goals31–86 · 36.0%42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers12–40 · 30.0%16–45 · 35.6%
Free throws7–10 · 70.0%19–21 · 90.5%
Rebounds3655
Assists1925
Turnovers1514
Steals47
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+5+38+33
Total points197200+3
BOS points9681−15
NYK points101119+18

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
May 14 vs NYK W 127–102
May 12 at NYK L 113–121
May 10 at NYK W 115–93
May 7 vs NYK L 90–91
May 5 vs NYK L 105–108

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
May 14 at BOS L 102–127
May 12 vs BOS W 121–113
May 10 vs BOS L 93–115
May 7 at BOS W 91–90
May 5 at BOS W 108–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 14 2024-25 NYK at BOS NYK 102 – 127 BOS
May 12 2024-25 BOS at NYK BOS 113 – 121 NYK
May 10 2024-25 BOS at NYK BOS 115 – 93 NYK
May 7 2024-25 NYK at BOS NYK 91 – 90 BOS
May 5 2024-25 NYK at BOS NYK 108 – 105 BOS