The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ORL 0–2@NYK 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 22 percent, NYK 78 percent. ORL Magic 22% proj. 103 · final 111 NYK Knicks · home 78% proj. 114 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 103 111 +8
NYK New York Knicks (home) 114 102 −12

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 NYKWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.3 NYKElo NYK 1692, ORL 1508; season margin NYK +6.7, ORL −1.0.
  • Player availability+1.6 NYKORL without Paolo Banchero (25 ppg).
  • Recent form+0.8 NYKLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NYK scores 113.7 and allows 106.0; ORL scores 102.2 and allows 109.4.

Together: NYK by 11, a 78% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 0–2, losing by 5 a game on average (scoring 102, allowing 106). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.4% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.5.

ORL is 0–2, losing by 14 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 124). Last season they were a ±0 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 48% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 11 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.3, getting to the line +1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.5, free throws allowed −1.4. Paolo Banchero (24 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NYK; left favors ORL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.3, Player availability +1.6, Recent form +0.8, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +11.0 for NYK. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.3 Player availability +1.6 Recent form +0.8 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +11.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +11.0. The 78% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputORLNYKEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15081692 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +254 +5.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.0+6.7 +0.7
Games played this season 22 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 102.2113.7 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.4106.0 +1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.5 −0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 24.50.0 +1.6
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNYK ptsORL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court254.3+2.05−3.22+5.27
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)106.0−0.27−2.39+2.12
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.4−1.32−0.18−1.14
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.78−0.13+0.91
Rotation points missing (away)24.5−0.03−0.72+0.69
Elo rating (home)1692.0+0.50−0.10+0.60
Games played (away)2.0+0.26+0.82−0.56
Combined pace, last 1097.5−3.19−2.69−0.49
Season scoring margin (away)-1.0+0.39+0.03+0.36
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)102.2−0.82−1.19+0.36
Season scoring margin (home)6.6+0.04−0.26+0.30
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.04+0.24
Games played (home)2.0+0.62+0.40+0.22
Elo rating (away)1507.7−0.04−0.10+0.07
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.05−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.02
Series pressure0.0+0.07+0.06+0.01
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.7−0.16−0.15−0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1508NYK16925.9 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1508

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. This season's 2 games: −30.1
  • LATL125–132−11.1
  • LMIN93–115−19.0

NYK1692

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 2 games: −23.1
  • LPHI100–106−16.0
  • L@BOS103–107−7.1
Season scoring marginORL−1.0NYK+6.70.3 pts toward NYK

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−1.0

Scores 109.0, allows 123.5 over 2 games: −14.5 a game.

10% this season (−14.5) + 90% last season (+0.5) = −1.0

NYK+6.7

Scores 101.5, allows 106.5 over 2 games: −5.0 a game.

10% this season (−5.0) + 90% last season (+7.9) = +6.7

Offensive rating, last 10ORL102.2NYK113.70.4 pts toward NYK

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL102.2scored, −12.4 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)47.6%54.5%−10.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210+1.0
Everything else−0.5

NYK113.7scored, −0.9 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.5%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210−0.3
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10ORL109.4NYK106.01.0 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ORL109.4allowed, −5.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.5%+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2610.210−1.4
Everything else−0.5

NYK106.0allowed, −8.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.5%+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%26.1%+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210−0.2
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 97.50.5 pts toward ORL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 98.5 and NYK 96.5 → average 97.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingORL24.5NYK0.01.6 pts toward NYK

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL24.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Paolo Banchero24.533.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysNYK2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Oct 23 against MIN.

NYK2days

Last played Oct 23 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23MIN93–11537-848-3911-1916892.1113.9101.0
Oct 21ATL125–13241-8513-4030-39209114.7118.9110.0
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0
Apr 22@DET83–9826-808-3223-32171383.899.099.0
Apr 19@DET112–10144-9010-3414-191211113.1103.198.5
Apr 12@BOS108–11336-9112-4324-301914102.9107.6105.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@BOS103–10736-8016-4015-211612110.8116.392.5
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5
May 25@CLE130–9348-9819-4315-201320127.591.2102.0
May 23@CLE121–10843-7711-2824-27148124.7110.297.5
May 21CLE109–9344-8513-368-1465122.5104.589.0
May 19CLE115–10442-8810-3221-32179105.596.398.3

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
22%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −9 for NYK
2nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLNYK
Final score111102
Field goals38–88 · 43.2%38–93 · 40.9%
Three-pointers18–42 · 42.9%9–38 · 23.7%
Free throws17–21 · 81.0%17–24 · 70.8%
Rebounds4945
Assists2926
Turnovers1514
Steals68
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+11−9−20
Total points217213−4
ORL points103111+8
NYK points114102−12

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs MIN L 93–115
Oct 21 vs ATL L 125–132
May 3 at DET L 94–116
May 1 vs DET L 79–93
Apr 29 at DET L 109–116

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at BOS L 103–107
Oct 20 vs PHI L 100–106
Jun 10 vs SAS W 107–106
Jun 8 vs SAS L 111–115
Jun 5 at SAS W 105–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 7 2025-26 ORL at NYK ORL 100 – 106 NYK
Nov 22 2025-26 NYK at ORL NYK 121 – 133 ORL
Nov 12 2025-26 ORL at NYK ORL 124 – 107 NYK
Jan 6 2024-25 ORL at NYK ORL 103 – 94 NYK
Dec 27 2024-25 NYK at ORL NYK 108 – 85 ORL