The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 7

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

Saturday, December 7, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 1–0@NYK 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 19 percent, NYK 81 percent. DET Pistons 19% proj. 106 · final 120 NYK Knicks · home 81% proj. 119 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 106 120 +14
NYK New York Knicks (home) 119 111 −8

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13791609
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +299
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.0+7.5
Games played this season 2422
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.5124.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.0112.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1379NYK1609

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1379

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
  2. First 14 games: +40.9
  3. Last 10 games: −8.3
  • W@WAS124–104+15.5
  • LCHI112–122−11.9
  • L@CHA121–123−3.9
  • L@ORL100–111−3.8
  • WTOR102–100+3.1
  • L@MEM111–131−7.6
  • W@IND130–106+33.7
  • LPHI96–111−17.7
  • LMIL107–128−14.3
  • L@BOS120–130−1.4

NYK1609

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
  2. First 12 games: +6.2
  3. Last 10 games: +44.6
  • WBKN114–104+4.1
  • WWAS134–106+3.8
  • W@PHX138–122+16.5
  • L@UTA106–121−22.6
  • W@DEN145–118+28.9
  • L@DAL114–129−8.9
  • W@CHA99–98+2.2
  • WNOP118–85+6.5
  • WORL121–106+10.1
  • WCHA125–101+4.0
Season scoring marginDET−3.0NYK+7.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−3.0

Scores 110.1, allows 113.1 over 24 games: −3.0 a game.

NYK+7.5

Scores 118.3, allows 110.7 over 22 games: +7.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET112.5NYK124.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

DET112.5scored, −0.1 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.1%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.5%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%24.7%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.197−0.1
Everything else+0.1

NYK124.7scored, +12.1 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.1%+8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.5%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%24.7%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.197+0.1
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10DET117.0NYK112.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

DET117.0allowed, +4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%54.1%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.5%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%24.7%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1590.197+1.1
Everything else−0.3

NYK112.4allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.1%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.5%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%24.7%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.197+0.8
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 98.7 and NYK 97.2 → average 98.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingDET0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-07 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-07 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Dec 4 against BOS.

NYK2days

Last played Dec 5 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 4@BOS120–13043-8420-3914-18187117.6128.7101.5
Dec 3MIL107–12840-8711-3316-221813104.9126.7101.5
Nov 30PHI96–11135-9111-4015-18161097.0113.398.5
Nov 29@IND130–10648-8318-3816-20187127.5103.9102.0
Nov 27@MEM111–13140-8513-3818-25189104.7123.6106.0
Nov 25TOR102–10034-7612-3722-31146109.7108.792.5
Nov 23@ORL100–11135-7513-3317-22179109.9120.791.5
Nov 21@CHA121–12342-9917-4820-251920115.2116.095.5
Nov 18CHI112–12242-9815-4413-19916115.5125.897.0
Nov 17@WAS124–10446-9717-3815-19813122.8103.0101.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 5CHA125–10141-7618-3325-3296134.4109.892.5
Dec 3ORL121–10643-8515-3520-20175118.6105.0101.5
Dec 1NOP118–8542-9220-4514-161714116.885.9100.0
Nov 29@CHA99–9836-8112-3215-191912107.6106.592.0
Nov 27@DAL114–12940-867-2927-3087117.5131.697.5
Nov 25@DEN145–11856-9219-3614-1698145.0116.8100.5
Nov 23@UTA106–12139-10017-5111-12911103.9117.5102.5
Nov 20@PHX138–12250-8619-3919-211310135.3119.6102.0
Nov 18WAS134–10651-9120-4012-1387139.6111.695.5
Nov 17BKN114–10443-8813-4015-19610128.1119.588.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
19%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
22 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual −9 for NYK
8th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
145th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETNYK
Final score120111
Field goals43–83 · 51.8%42–79 · 53.2%
Three-pointers18–36 · 50.0%11–34 · 32.4%
Free throws16–19 · 84.2%16–27 · 59.3%
Rebounds4331
Assists2827
Turnovers1815
Steals711
Blocks05

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+13−9−22
Total points225231+6
DET points106120+14
NYK points119111−8

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DET39302031–120
NYK23352726–111

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Dec 4 at BOS L 120–130
Dec 3 vs MIL L 107–128
Nov 30 vs PHI L 96–111
Nov 29 at IND W 130–106
Nov 27 at MEM L 111–131

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 5 vs CHA W 125–101
Dec 3 vs ORL W 121–106
Dec 1 vs NOP W 118–85
Nov 29 at CHA W 99–98
Nov 27 at DAL L 114–129

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 1 2024-25 NYK at DET NYK 128 – 98 DET
Mar 25 2023-24 DET at NYK DET 99 – 124 NYK
Feb 26 2023-24 DET at NYK DET 111 – 113 NYK
Nov 30 2023-24 DET at NYK DET 112 – 118 NYK
Jan 15 2022-23 NYK at DET NYK 117 – 104 DET