The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

NYK 1–3@CHI 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 80 percent, CHI 20 percent. NYK Knicks 80% proj. 124 · final 133 CHI Bulls · home 20% proj. 112 · final 127
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 124 133 +9
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 112 127 +15

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans NYK

  • Home court+2.1 CHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+10.8 NYKElo CHI 1363, NYK 1681; season margin CHI −7.9, NYK +6.1.
  • Recent form+3.9 NYKLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHI scores 105.0 and allows 117.8; NYK scores 112.5 and allows 107.1.
  • Player availability+0.6 CHIBoth teams close to full strength.

Together: NYK by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

NYK is 1–3, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 104, allowing 105). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +2.1. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI is 1–3, losing by 19 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 130). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.9. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHI; left favors NYK.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −10.8, Recent form −3.9, Player availability +0.6, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving −11.6 for CHI. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −10.8 Recent form −3.9 Player availability +0.6 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin −11.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −11.6. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputNYKCHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16811363 −2.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −247 −6.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.1−7.9 −2.1
Games played this season 44 −0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.5105.0 −0.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.1117.8 −2.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.2 −0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.6
Rest days 12 +0.0
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHI ptsNYK ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-247.2−1.75+4.60−6.34
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)117.8+0.20+1.73−1.53
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)107.1−1.37−0.04−1.33
Elo rating (away)1680.6−1.50−0.31−1.18
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)105.0−1.59−0.41−1.18
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.99−0.15+1.14
Elo rating (home)1363.4−0.16+0.95−1.11
Season scoring margin (home)-7.9−0.66+0.39−1.05
Season scoring margin (away)6.1−0.83+0.21−1.04
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.10+0.42−0.51
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)112.5−0.03−0.38+0.36
Games played (away)4.0−0.06+0.23−0.29
Games played (home)4.0+0.16−0.07+0.22
Home series wins0.0+0.23+0.06+0.18
Combined pace, last 10102.3+4.11+4.28−0.17
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.00+0.06
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.04
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1681CHI13638.6 pts toward NYK

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1681

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1787 → started this one at 1715
  2. This season's 4 games: −34.4
  • LPHI100–106−16.0
  • L@BOS103–107−7.1
  • LORL102–111−19.8
  • WDET111–97+8.5

CHI1363

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. This season's 4 games: −15.6
  • L@TOR92–135−10.0
  • W@MIL132–125+10.7
  • LWAS120–124−10.4
  • L@BOS99–134−5.9
Season scoring marginNYK+6.1CHI−7.92.1 pts toward NYK

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+6.1

Scores 104.0, allows 105.2 over 4 games: −1.3 a game.

20% this season (−1.3) + 80% last season (+7.9) = +6.1

CHI−7.9

Scores 110.8, allows 129.5 over 4 games: −18.8 a game.

20% this season (−18.8) + 80% last season (−5.2) = −7.9

Offensive rating, last 10NYK112.5CHI105.00.8 pts toward NYK

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK112.5scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else+0.7

CHI105.0scored, −9.6 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.5%54.5%−7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.210+1.0
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10NYK107.1CHI117.82.9 pts toward NYK

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NYK107.1allowed, −7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%26.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210+0.1
Everything else−0.4

CHI117.8allowed, +3.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else−1.1
Pace, last 10average 102.20.2 pts toward NYK

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 97.5 and CHI 107.0 → average 102.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0CHI0.00.6 pts toward CHI

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNYK1 daysCHI2 days0.1 pts toward CHI

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against DET.

CHI2days

Last played Oct 26 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27DET111–9738-8812-3623-281819114.4100.097.0
Oct 25ORL102–11138-939-3817-241412102.0112.199.5
Oct 23@BOS103–10736-8016-4015-211612110.8116.392.5
Oct 20PHI100–10635-9411-3319-27141498.0103.9102.0
Jun 10SAS107–10636-7815-3220-28138115.1112.893.5
Jun 8SAS111–11540-8813-3718-221312119.4123.793.0
Jun 5@SAS105–10437-8915-3816-211210108.2105.198.0
Jun 3@SAS105–9539-9411-3616-18810105.096.099.5
May 25@CLE130–9348-9819-4315-201320127.591.2102.0
May 23@CLE121–10843-7711-2824-27148124.7110.297.5

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@BOS99–13433-8412-4421-31241492.5126.4106.5
Oct 24WAS120–12440-9312-4328-30129113.2118.1105.5
Oct 23@MIL132–12546-9812-4528-301413120.0113.6110.0
Oct 21@TOR92–13527-854-3634-47272182.1122.7111.0
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5
Apr 5PHX110–12041-9110-3918-231814105.8117.6103.0
Apr 3@NYK96–13635-8111-3515-2616996.0136.0100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast −12, actual −6 for CHI
133rd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKCHI
Final score133127
Field goals47–105 · 44.8%44–91 · 48.4%
Three-pointers22–48 · 45.8%18–42 · 42.9%
Free throws17–20 · 85.0%21–30 · 70.0%
Rebounds5039
Assists3232
Turnovers1212
Steals67
Blocks67

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−12−6+6
Total points236260+24
NYK points124133+9
CHI points112127+15

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 vs DET W 111–97
Oct 25 vs ORL L 102–111
Oct 23 at BOS L 103–107
Oct 20 vs PHI L 100–106
Jun 10 vs SAS W 107–106

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at BOS L 99–134
Oct 24 vs WAS L 120–124
Oct 23 at MIL W 132–125
Oct 21 at TOR L 92–135
Apr 12 at DAL L 128–149

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 3 2025-26 CHI at NYK CHI 96 – 136 NYK
Feb 22 2025-26 NYK at CHI NYK 105 – 99 CHI
Nov 2 2025-26 CHI at NYK CHI 116 – 128 NYK
Oct 31 2025-26 NYK at CHI NYK 125 – 135 CHI
Feb 20 2024-25 CHI at NYK CHI 111 – 113 NYK