2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves

Wednesday, March 19, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 1–3@MIN 4–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	107	119	+12
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	117	115	−2

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1332	1646
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+384
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.7	+4.1
Games played this season	69	70
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.7	121.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	125.2	110.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	17.3	29.4
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1332MIN1646

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1332

Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
First 59 games: −160.1
Last 10 games: −47.4

L@PHX108–125−8.5
W@UTA128–121+10.9
L@LAL115–136−4.1
LHOU97–109−8.2
L@HOU117–146−7.1
LMEM104–107−3.0
WLAC127–120+11.9
LORL93–113−18.5
L@SAS115–119−3.9
LDET81–127−16.9

MIN1646

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 60 games: −9.5
Last 10 games: +37.0

L@UTA116–117−6.8
W@PHX116–98+10.9
WPHI126–112+3.0
W@CHA125–110+3.3
W@MIA106–104+3.4
WSAS141–124+4.2
W@DEN115–95+22.2
WORL118–111+2.1
WUTA128–102+2.8
LIND130–132−8.1

Season scoring marginNOP−8.7MIN+4.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−8.7

Scores 110.4, allows 119.1 over 69 games: −8.7 a game.

MIN+4.1

Scores 113.4, allows 109.3 over 70 games: +4.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP110.7MIN121.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

NOP110.7scored, −2.8 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.3%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.1%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	25.2%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.194	−0.6
Everything else			−0.2

MIN121.5scored, +8.1 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.0%	54.3%	+7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.1%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	25.2%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.194	−0.5
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10NOP125.2MIN110.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

NOP125.2allowed, +11.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.3%	54.3%	−9.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.1%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	25.2%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.194	+0.4
Everything else			−0.7

MIN110.1allowed, −3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.3%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.1%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	25.2%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.194	+0.7
Everything else			−0.5

Pace, last 10average 98.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 97.8 and MIN 99.4 → average 98.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingNOP17.3MIN29.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP17.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Trey Murphy III	17.3	31.9	10

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIN29.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Edwards	29.4	35.4	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-19 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Mar 17 against DET.

MIN2days

Last played Mar 17 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 17	DET	81–127	28-86	5-32	20-30	16	11	81.0	128.3	99.5
Mar 15	@SAS	115–119	46-92	12-35	11-11	15	11	115.0	119.0	100.0
Mar 13	ORL	93–113	35-79	7-25	16-21	13	9	102.2	124.2	91.0
Mar 11	LAC	127–120	47-85	17-31	16-18	19	11	129.6	120.0	99.0
Mar 9	MEM	104–107	35-85	13-34	21-27	14	10	108.3	113.8	95.0
Mar 8	@HOU	117–146	48-99	12-34	9-16	13	18	114.7	144.6	101.5
Mar 6	HOU	97–109	31-83	9-27	26-33	15	15	100.0	111.2	97.5
Mar 4	@LAL	115–136	46-93	9-34	14-21	9	10	116.2	138.8	98.5
Mar 2	@UTA	128–121	53-102	15-44	7-13	11	13	125.5	118.6	102.0
Feb 28	@PHX	108–125	44-87	11-28	9-15	14	13	114.9	133.0	94.0

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 17	IND	130–132	44-97	13-42	29-36	14	9	113.0	116.8	103.2
Mar 16	UTA	128–102	48-97	14-43	18-26	9	16	124.3	100.0	102.5
Mar 14	ORL	118–111	42-80	14-33	20-28	15	6	116.8	112.1	100.0
Mar 12	@DEN	115–95	43-90	17-40	12-16	15	12	121.1	99.0	95.5
Mar 9	SAS	141–124	53-95	21-42	14-15	12	14	142.4	125.3	99.0
Mar 7	@MIA	106–104	40-81	18-45	8-14	13	7	112.8	109.5	94.5
Mar 5	@CHA	125–110	44-90	21-49	16-22	5	10	130.2	114.6	96.0
Mar 4	PHI	126–112	46-81	18-40	16-17	17	7	127.3	113.1	99.0
Mar 2	@PHX	116–98	39-92	21-52	17-21	8	5	112.6	96.1	102.5
Feb 28	@UTA	116–117	44-101	20-52	8-14	7	11	114.9	114.7	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

25%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −4 for MIN

33rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

381st

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	MIN
Final score	119	115
Field goals	47–89 · 52.8%	35–77 · 45.5%
Three-pointers	13–29 · 44.8%	16–39 · 41.0%
Free throws	12–22 · 54.5%	29–36 · 80.6%
Rebounds	46	40
Assists	28	21
Turnovers	13	14
Steals	5	7
Blocks	6	6

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	+10	−4	−14
Total points	224	234	+10
NOP points	107	119	+12
MIN points	117	115	−2

Recent form before this game