2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

NOP 4–5@LAC 1–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	115	123	+8
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home)	119	139	+20

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAC

Home court+2.1 LACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+0.9 LACElo LAC 1477, NOP 1433; season margin LAC −1.9, NOP −1.8.
Recent form+0.9 LACLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAC scores 107.6 and allows 114.3; NOP scores 113.5 and allows 112.9.

Together: LAC by 4, a 61% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAC is 1–7, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 116). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (league 13.2%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.1. Their defense lets opponents shoot 55% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Isaiah Jackson (9 ppg) is out.

NOP is 4–5, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 119). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense makes 29 free throws per 100 shots (league 22), which alone adds about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 54% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Yves Missi (10 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAC; left favors NOP.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.3. The 61% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	NOP	LAC	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1433	1477	+0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+115		+1.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.8	−1.9	+0.0
Games played this season	9	8	−0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.5	107.6	−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.9	114.3	−0.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.5		+1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.5	8.6	+0.1
Rest days	2	4	+0.1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	LAC pts	NOP pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	114.9	+0.41	−0.82	+1.22
Combined pace, last 10	101.5	+3.47	+2.26	+1.21
Elo rating (away)	1432.6	+0.63	−0.01	+0.64
Rotation points missing (home)	8.6	+0.57	−0.06	+0.63
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.9	−0.53	+0.00	−0.53
Rotation points missing (away)	9.5	−0.07	+0.45	−0.52
Games played (away)	9.0	−0.02	+0.48	−0.50
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	114.3	+0.13	−0.28	+0.41
Season scoring margin (away)	-1.8	+0.56	+0.17	+0.40
Season scoring margin (home)	-1.9	−0.13	+0.23	−0.35
Games played (home)	8.0	−0.21	+0.13	−0.34
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	107.6	−0.49	−0.28	−0.21
Home series wins	0.0	+0.23	+0.04	+0.19
Elo rating (home)	1477.5	−0.11	+0.04	−0.14
Rest days (home)	4.0	+0.09	−0.04	+0.13
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	113.5	−0.00	−0.03	+0.02
Series pressure	0.0	+0.03	+0.02	+0.01
Rest days (away)	2.0	+0.01	+0.01	−0.01
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.00	±0.00	+0.00
Elimination game	0	+0.00	−0.00	+0.00
Back-to-back (away)	0	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1433LAC14771.7 pts toward LAC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1433

Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
This season's 9 games: +8.7

LIND120–123−8.2
L@UTA119–120−4.4
L@DEN135–141−2.5
LDEN91–104−9.0
WSAC132–120+6.8
WATL121–99+22.7
W@MEM135–134+5.0
WUTA120–113+3.4
LMIN109–115−5.1

LAC1477

Ended last season at 1539 → started this one at 1529
This season's 8 games: −51.6

WSAC121–96+6.8
L@LAL117–125−5.9
L@OKC101–108−2.8
LLAL87–103−15.5
L@MIN101–127−10.7
L@GSW112–124−9.5
LTOR118–125−9.0
LMIA116–117−5.0

Season scoring marginNOP−1.8LAC−1.90.8 pts toward NOP

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−1.8

Scores 120.2, allows 118.8 over 9 games: +1.4 a game.

45% this season (+1.4) + 55% last season (−4.5) = −1.8

LAC−1.9

Scores 109.1, allows 115.6 over 8 games: −6.5 a game.

40% this season (−6.5) + 60% last season (+1.1) = −1.9

Offensive rating, last 10NOP113.5LAC107.60.2 pts toward NOP

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

NOP113.5scored, +1.4 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	53.2%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	13.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	27.2%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.293	0.225	+2.0
Everything else			+0.7

LAC107.6scored, −4.5 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.2%	+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	16.0%	13.2%	−4.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	27.2%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.225	−0.4
Everything else			+0.9

Defensive rating, last 10NOP112.9LAC114.30.1 pts toward NOP

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

NOP112.9allowed, +0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	53.2%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	13.2%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.8%	27.2%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.258	0.225	−0.9
Everything else			+0.7

LAC114.3allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	53.2%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	13.2%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	27.2%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.235	0.225	−0.3
Everything else			+1.8

Pace, last 10average 101.51.2 pts toward LAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 103.1 and LAC 99.8 → average 101.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingNOP9.5LAC8.60.1 pts toward LAC

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP9.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Yves Missi	9.5	19.6	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 13 rotation players.

LAC8.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Isaiah Jackson	8.6	20.9	8

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysLAC4 days0.1 pts toward LAC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Nov 6 against MIN.

LAC4days

Last played Nov 4 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	MIN	109–115	39-86	10-24	21-26	13	12	111.2	119.8	97.0
Nov 4	UTA	120–113	38-89	5-20	39-43	17	13	111.1	102.7	98.7
Nov 2	@MEM	135–134	48-101	14-37	25-30	8	14	123.9	124.1	98.3
Oct 31	ATL	121–99	43-76	7-17	28-35	23	10	114.2	94.3	105.5
Oct 29	SAC	132–120	50-85	10-29	22-32	20	5	118.9	108.1	111.0
Oct 28	DEN	91–104	34-82	7-30	16-22	19	8	90.1	104.0	100.5
Oct 24	@DEN	135–141	50-99	11-38	24-30	18	14	116.4	119.5	106.0
Oct 23	@UTA	119–120	44-87	8-26	23-27	15	9	116.7	117.6	102.0
Oct 21	IND	120–123	38-89	10-30	34-37	14	14	114.3	117.1	105.0
Apr 12	@MIN	126–132	45-107	5-21	31-38	9	17	117.8	122.2	107.5

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	MIA	116–117	43-90	16-43	14-20	18	6	104.5	105.4	100.5
Nov 2	TOR	118–125	42-91	13-35	21-27	14	10	115.7	123.8	101.5
Nov 1	@GSW	112–124	40-91	14-39	18-19	14	14	112.0	122.8	100.5
Oct 30	@MIN	101–127	35-85	12-30	19-22	17	11	102.0	127.0	99.5
Oct 28	LAL	87–103	26-74	10-31	25-27	24	12	89.7	105.1	97.5
Oct 25	@OKC	101–108	37-81	15-38	12-15	26	8	99.0	105.9	102.0
Oct 23	@LAL	117–125	41-83	16-37	19-25	25	11	113.6	122.5	102.5
Oct 21	SAC	121–96	43-82	14-35	21-31	17	11	116.3	91.4	104.5
Apr 12	GSW	115–110	42-89	14-39	17-19	10	10	121.1	117.0	94.5
Apr 10	@POR	97–116	36-83	13-40	12-12	16	9	102.1	122.1	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

61%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner

LAC was the forecast favorite

12 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual +16 for LAC

78th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

54th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	LAC
Final score	123	139
Field goals	41–81 · 50.6%	46–84 · 54.8%
Three-pointers	10–29 · 34.5%	16–38 · 42.1%
Free throws	31–35 · 88.6%	31–38 · 81.6%
Rebounds	35	36
Assists	23	34
Turnovers	16	11
Steals	6	8
Blocks	2	2

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)	+4	+16	+12
Total points	234	262	+28
NOP points	115	123	+8
LAC points	119	139	+20

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-08 20:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.