2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

NOP 0–2@DEN 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	113	135	+22
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	123	141	+18

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

Home court+2.1 DENWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+4.7 DENElo DEN 1586, NOP 1411; season margin DEN +3.7, NOP −4.3.
Recent form+2.2 DENLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DEN scores 112.5 and allows 111.8; NOP scores 112.2 and allows 120.3.
Player availability+0.4 DENNOP without Yves Missi (10 ppg).

Together: DEN by 10, a 76% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 0–1, losing by 12 a game on average (scoring 84, allowing 96). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.0. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −2.4.

NOP is 0–2, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 122). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.6, defensive rebounding −1.2. Yves Missi (10 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DEN; left favors NOP.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.7. The 76% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	NOP	DEN	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1411	1586	+0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+244		+4.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−4.3	+3.7	+1.2
Games played this season	2	1	−1.2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.2	112.5	−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.3	111.8	+2.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.9		+0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.5	0.0	+0.4
Rest days	1	2	+0.0
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No	+0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	DEN pts	NOP pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	244.3	+1.93	−2.40	+4.33
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	120.3	+1.56	+0.18	+1.37
Rotation points missing (home)	0.0	+0.63	−0.20	+0.84
Season scoring margin (away)	-4.3	+0.74	−0.02	+0.77
Games played (away)	2.0	+0.18	+0.94	−0.76
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	111.8	−0.47	−1.14	+0.68
Games played (home)	1.0	+0.49	+0.94	−0.45
Season scoring margin (home)	3.7	+0.27	−0.18	+0.45
Rotation points missing (away)	9.5	+0.05	+0.49	−0.44
Combined pace, last 10	101.9	+3.16	+2.92	+0.24
Elo rating (home)	1585.7	+0.03	−0.19	+0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	112.5	−0.34	−0.12	−0.22
Home series wins	0.0	+0.23	+0.02	+0.21
Elo rating (away)	1411.4	+0.08	−0.09	+0.17
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.2	−0.02	−0.16	+0.13
Rest days (away)	1.0	+0.05	+0.01	+0.04
Back-to-back (home)	0	+0.03	−0.01	+0.03
Rest days (home)	2.0	+0.02	+0.03	−0.01
Series pressure	0.0	+0.03	+0.03	+0.00
Elimination game	0	±0.00	−0.00	+0.00
Back-to-back (away)	1	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1411DEN15864.7 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1411

Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
This season's 2 games: −12.6

LIND120–123−8.2
L@UTA119–120−4.4

DEN1586

Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
This season's 1 game: −5.4

L@OKC84–96−5.4

Season scoring marginNOP−4.3DEN+3.7no effect on the margin

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−4.3

Scores 119.5, allows 121.5 over 2 games: −2.0 a game.

10% this season (−2.0) + 90% last season (−4.5) = −4.3

DEN+3.7

Scores 84.0, allows 96.0 over 1 game: −12.0 a game.

5% this season (−12.0) + 95% last season (+4.5) = +3.7

Offensive rating, last 10NOP112.2DEN112.50.1 pts toward NOP

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP112.2scored, −2.4 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.5%	−5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.2%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	26.1%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.260	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			+1.4

DEN112.5scored, −2.1 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.5%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.2%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	26.1%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.243	0.210	+1.0
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10NOP120.3DEN111.82.1 pts toward DEN

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

NOP120.3allowed, +5.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.7%	54.5%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	26.1%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.210	+0.0
Everything else			+0.4

DEN111.8allowed, −2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.5%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	26.1%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.177	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 101.90.2 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 104.4 and DEN 99.4 → average 101.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP9.5DEN0.00.4 pts toward DEN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP9.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Yves Missi	9.5	19.6	2

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestNOP1 daysDEN2 days0.1 pts toward DEN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against UTA.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 22 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	@UTA	119–120	44-87	8-26	23-27	15	9	116.7	117.6	102.0
Oct 21	IND	120–123	38-89	10-30	34-37	14	14	114.3	117.1	105.0
Apr 12	@MIN	126–132	45-107	5-21	31-38	9	17	117.8	122.2	107.5
Apr 10	@BOS	118–144	44-96	9-32	21-30	13	8	112.4	137.1	105.0
Apr 7	UTA	156–137	61-106	14-34	20-23	16	8	127.9	112.3	122.0
Apr 5	ORL	108–112	35-84	10-31	28-36	15	9	102.9	107.7	104.5
Apr 3	@SAC	113–117	40-84	14-34	19-21	13	7	115.3	118.2	98.5
Apr 2	@POR	106–118	38-84	9-23	21-26	19	12	107.1	116.8	100.0
Mar 29	HOU	102–134	37-86	9-29	19-28	10	8	102.0	135.4	99.5
Mar 27	@TOR	106–119	39-93	7-28	21-25	13	15	106.0	119.0	100.0

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 22	@OKC	84–96	31-82	8-30	14-22	22	19	89.4	102.1	94.0
Apr 30	@MIN	98–110	34-75	10-27	20-25	13	6	105.4	118.3	93.0
Apr 27	MIN	125–113	47-83	11-29	20-25	16	5	122.5	109.7	102.5
Apr 25	@MIN	96–112	33-87	6-28	24-28	10	12	101.1	119.1	94.5
Apr 23	@MIN	96–113	28-82	8-32	32-40	10	6	95.0	111.9	101.0
Apr 20	MIN	114–119	38-86	15-41	23-30	9	5	110.7	116.7	102.5
Apr 18	MIN	116–105	38-87	10-36	30-33	13	8	113.7	101.9	102.5
Apr 12	@SAS	128–118	50-100	11-30	17-22	10	12	126.7	115.7	101.5
Apr 10	OKC	127–107	47-93	21-43	12-13	16	10	124.5	103.9	102.5
Apr 8	MEM	136–119	53-90	14-36	16-21	12	9	136.0	119.0	100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

76%

pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner

DEN was the forecast favorite

4 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual +6 for DEN

124th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

111th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	DEN
Final score	135	141
Field goals	50–99 · 50.5%	48–99 · 48.5%
Three-pointers	11–38 · 28.9%	15–47 · 31.9%
Free throws	24–30 · 80.0%	30–39 · 76.9%
Rebounds	50	51
Assists	33	26
Turnovers	18	11
Steals	9	9
Blocks	5	6

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+10	+6	−4
Total points	236	276	+40
NOP points	113	135	+22
DEN points	123	141	+18

Recent form before this game