2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
LAC 0–2@NOP 4–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC Los Angeles Clippers | 120 | 109 | −11 |
| NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) | 118 | 124 | +6 |
Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | LAC | NOP |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1559 | 1430 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −59 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +0.8 | −4.1 |
| Games played this season | 68 | 69 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 123.2 | 118.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 115.4 | 113.9 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 27.4 | 8.3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingLAC1559NOP1430
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
LAC1559
- Ended last season at 1636 → started this one at 1602
- First 58 games: −67.2
- Last 10 games: +24.1
- WNOP137–117+6.8
- W@GSW114–101+13.9
- WIND130–107+4.2
- L@SAS112–116−2.6
- W@MEM123–120+4.1
- WNYK126–118+9.9
- WMIN153–128+13.0
- WCHI119–108+3.1
- LSAC109–118−23.5
- LSAS115–119−4.8
NOP1430
- Ended last season at 1302 → started this one at 1352
- First 59 games: +32.6
- Last 10 games: +45.7
- W@UTA129–118+11.7
- W@UTA115–105+10.1
- L@LAC117–137−6.8
- L@LAL101–110−4.0
- W@SAC133–123+9.8
- L@PHX116–118−2.3
- WWAS138–118+6.7
- WTOR122–111+12.4
- L@HOU105–107−1.8
- WDAL129–111+9.9
Season scoring marginLAC+0.8NOP−4.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
LAC+0.8
Scores 113.5, allows 112.7 over 68 games: +0.8 a game.
NOP−4.1
Scores 115.6, allows 119.7 over 69 games: −4.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10LAC123.2NOP118.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
LAC123.2scored, +8.7 vs league
| Factor | LAC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.8% | 54.4% | +5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.2% | +3.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.263 | 0.210 | +1.5 | |
| Everything else | −1.5 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
NOP118.3scored, +3.8 vs league
| Factor | NOP | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.3% | 54.4% | −0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.5% | 12.2% | −0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.269 | 0.210 | +1.7 | |
| Everything else | +2.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10LAC115.4NOP113.9
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
LAC115.4allowed, +0.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% | 54.4% | −1.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.5% | 12.2% | +1.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.197 | 0.210 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
NOP113.9allowed, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.5% | 54.4% | +2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.7% | 12.2% | −2.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.210 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
LAC 100.1 and NOP 101.8 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingLAC27.4NOP8.3
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
LAC27.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | 19.4 | 29.5 | 10 |
| Yanic Konan Niederhäuser | 8.0 | 16.5 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-18 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
NOP8.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce McGowens | 8.3 | 24.1 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-18 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestLAC2 daysNOP2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
LAC2days
Last played Mar 16 against SAS.
NOP2days
Last played Mar 16 against DAL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
LAC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16 | SAS | 115–119 | 43-89 | 11-29 | 18-24 | 13 | 12 | 116.2 | 121.4 | 98.5 |
| Mar 14 | SAC | 109–118 | 39-84 | 9-27 | 22-29 | 13 | 9 | 106.9 | 116.8 | 101.5 |
| Mar 13 | CHI | 119–108 | 46-96 | 9-32 | 18-24 | 6 | 10 | 116.7 | 105.9 | 102.0 |
| Mar 11 | MIN | 153–128 | 52-82 | 19-37 | 30-36 | 10 | 7 | 148.5 | 125.5 | 102.5 |
| Mar 9 | NYK | 126–118 | 43-93 | 18-39 | 22-26 | 8 | – | 124.8 | 116.8 | 101.0 |
| Mar 7 | @MEM | 123–120 | 41-82 | 4-17 | 37-45 | 15 | – | 128.1 | 122.4 | 97.0 |
| Mar 6 | @SAS | 112–116 | 42-86 | 12-33 | 16-20 | 9 | – | 113.1 | 118.4 | 98.5 |
| Mar 4 | IND | 130–107 | 49-89 | 12-32 | 20-25 | 11 | 5 | 125.0 | 103.9 | 103.5 |
| Mar 2 | @GSW | 114–101 | 42-85 | 9-31 | 21-23 | 14 | 14 | 118.8 | 106.3 | 95.5 |
| Mar 1 | NOP | 137–117 | 48-89 | 17-36 | 24-29 | 8 | 10 | 134.3 | 117.0 | 101.0 |
NOP
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16 | DAL | 129–111 | 48-95 | 11-35 | 22-34 | 14 | 12 | 118.3 | 101.8 | 109.0 |
| Mar 13 | @HOU | 105–107 | 37-84 | 13-32 | 18-26 | 13 | 15 | 111.7 | 113.8 | 94.0 |
| Mar 11 | TOR | 122–111 | 45-88 | 14-29 | 18-24 | 15 | 10 | 118.4 | 108.8 | 102.5 |
| Mar 8 | WAS | 138–118 | 47-89 | 7-23 | 37-47 | 8 | – | 131.4 | 113.5 | 104.5 |
| Mar 6 | @PHX | 116–118 | 37-83 | 10-28 | 32-37 | 14 | – | 122.1 | 122.9 | 95.5 |
| Mar 5 | @SAC | 133–123 | 49-98 | 12-34 | 23-27 | 11 | – | 126.7 | 116.0 | 105.5 |
| Mar 3 | @LAL | 101–110 | 38-90 | 8-29 | 17-19 | 18 | 10 | 98.1 | 106.8 | 103.0 |
| Mar 1 | @LAC | 117–137 | 40-89 | 12-33 | 25-30 | 16 | 14 | 117.0 | 134.3 | 101.0 |
| Feb 28 | @UTA | 115–105 | 39-85 | 15-44 | 22-29 | 19 | 12 | 112.7 | 104.0 | 101.5 |
| Feb 26 | @UTA | 129–118 | 46-88 | 13-34 | 24-27 | 18 | 13 | 126.5 | 116.8 | 101.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | LAC | NOP |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 109 | 124 |
| Field goals | 45–88 · 51.1% | 44–83 · 53.0% |
| Three-pointers | 9–31 · 29.0% | 16–37 · 43.2% |
| Free throws | 10–13 · 76.9% | 20–21 · 95.2% |
| Rebounds | 36 | 40 |
| Assists | 24 | 32 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 18 |
| Steals | 10 | 12 |
| Blocks | 2 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · New Orleans Pelicans
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (NOP) | −2 | +15 | +17 |
| Total points | 238 | 233 | −5 |
| LAC points | 120 | 109 | −11 |
| NOP points | 118 | 124 | +6 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 2025-26 | NOP at LAC | NOP 117 – 137 LAC |
| Oct 31 2025-26 | NOP at LAC | NOP 124 – 126 LAC |
| Apr 2 2024-25 | NOP at LAC | NOP 98 – 114 LAC |
| Mar 11 2024-25 | LAC at NOP | LAC 120 – 127 NOP |
| Dec 30 2024-25 | LAC at NOP | LAC 116 – 113 NOP |