The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 6

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIN 6–3@NOP 4–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 70 percent, NOP 30 percent. MIN Timberwolves 70% proj. 122 · final 115 NOP Pelicans · home 30% proj. 115 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 122 115 −7
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 115 109 −6

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMINNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16101438
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −102
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.3−1.8
Games played this season 98
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.9113.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.0114.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 45.39.5
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1610NOP1438

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1610

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. This season's 9 games: +57.2
  • W@MIA131–106+21.7
  • W@ORL115–93+19.0
  • WTOR117–94+11.6
  • L@CLE125–127−4.3
  • LGSW114–119−13.3
  • WLAC127–101+10.7
  • L@SAS111–121−5.3
  • WMIL112–100+2.5
  • W@HOU117–107+14.6

NOP1438

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 8 games: +13.8
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
  • WSAC132–120+6.8
  • WATL121–99+22.7
  • W@MEM135–134+5.0
  • WUTA120–113+3.4
Season scoring marginMIN+6.3NOP−1.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+6.3

Scores 118.8, allows 107.6 over 9 games: +11.2 a game.

45% this season (+11.2) + 55% last season (+2.2) = +6.3

NOP−1.8

Scores 121.6, allows 119.2 over 8 games: +2.4 a game.

40% this season (+2.4) + 60% last season (−4.5) = −1.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIN114.9NOP113.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

MIN114.9scored, +2.8 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%53.3%+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%13.3%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.7%27.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.226−1.8
Everything else−0.9

NOP113.6scored, +1.5 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%53.3%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%13.3%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%27.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2900.226+1.9
Everything else+1.2
Defensive rating, last 10MIN108.0NOP114.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

MIN108.0allowed, −4.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.6%53.3%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%13.3%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%27.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.226+0.2
Everything else+0.6

NOP114.7allowed, +2.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%53.3%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%13.3%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%27.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.226−0.4
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 102.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 101.4 and NOP 103.9 → average 102.7 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingMIN45.3NOP9.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN45.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Anthony Edwards33.233.74
Terrence Shannon Jr.12.022.07

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP9.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Yves Missi9.519.62

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Nov 4 against HOU.

NOP2days

Last played Nov 4 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4@HOU117–10746-8715-3510-191715119.4110.397.5
Nov 2MIL112–10041-9616-4514-261121113.1102.098.5
Oct 31@SAS111–12140-939-3322-261413111.0121.0100.0
Oct 30LAC127–10151-9518-427-111112127.0102.099.5
Oct 28GSW114–11940-9015-4519-27157105.6110.2108.0
Oct 26@CLE125–12749-10213-4014-231717112.6112.4101.4
Oct 25TOR117–9443-7715-3116-25239118.295.998.5
Oct 23@ORL115–9342-9814-3717-301222113.992.1101.0
Oct 21@MIA131–10646-9821-5018-291417124.8100.0105.5
May 15SAS109–13940-10612-3417-2159103.8133.7104.5

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4UTA120–11338-895-2039-431713111.1102.798.7
Nov 2@MEM135–13448-10114-3725-30814123.9124.198.3
Oct 31ATL121–9943-767-1728-352310114.294.3105.5
Oct 29SAC132–12050-8510-2922-32205118.9108.1111.0
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
70%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −6 for NOP
104th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINNOP
Final score115109
Field goals38–88 · 43.2%39–86 · 45.3%
Three-pointers12–39 · 30.8%10–24 · 41.7%
Free throws27–37 · 73.0%21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds4941
Assists2325
Turnovers1113
Steals57
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−7−6+1
Total points237224−13
MIN points122115−7
NOP points115109−6

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Out Anthony Edwards
  • Out Donte DiVincenzo
  • Out Terrence Shannon Jr. · Left Hip Contusion

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Out Yves Missi

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 at HOU W 117–107
Nov 2 vs MIL W 112–100
Oct 31 at SAS L 111–121
Oct 30 vs LAC W 127–101
Oct 28 vs GSW L 114–119

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs UTA W 120–113
Nov 2 at MEM W 135–134
Oct 31 vs ATL W 121–99
Oct 29 vs SAC W 132–120
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 NOP at MIN NOP 126 – 132 MIN
Feb 6 2025-26 NOP at MIN NOP 119 – 115 MIN
Dec 4 2025-26 MIN at NOP MIN 125 – 116 NOP
Dec 2 2025-26 MIN at NOP MIN 149 – 142 NOP
Mar 21 2024-25 NOP at MIN NOP 93 – 134 MIN