The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 1

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

TOR 3–2@LAL 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: TOR 47 percent, LAL 53 percent. TOR Raptors 47% proj. 113 · final 125 LAL Lakers · home 53% proj. 114 · final 131
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
TOR Toronto Raptors 113 125 +12
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 114 131 +17

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans LAL

  • Home court+2.1 LALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+2.1 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: LAL scores 115.1 and allows 118.1; TOR scores 113.5 and allows 107.2.

Together: LAL by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

LAL is 4–2, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 113). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting +4, getting to the line +1.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.5, defensive rebounding −1.4. Ziaire Williams (11 ppg) is out.

TOR is 3–2, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 106). Last season they were a +2 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.4, ball security +1.2. Their defense forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +4, free throws allowed −2.0. Kawhi Leonard (20 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors LAL; left favors TOR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form −2.1, Team strength +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +0.6 for LAL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form −2.1 Team strength +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +0.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.6. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputTORLALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15471568 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +91 +0.8
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5+2.3 −0.1
Games played this season 56 −0.6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.5115.1 +0.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.2118.1 −2.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.7 −0.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.511.3 −0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueLAL ptsTOR ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.1+0.30+1.54−1.24
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)107.2−1.24−0.06−1.18
Elo gap incl. home court91.3+0.08−0.69+0.77
Rotation points missing (away)19.5−0.04+0.64−0.68
Rotation points missing (home)11.3+0.65+0.00+0.64
Games played (away)5.0+0.23+0.79−0.56
Season scoring margin (away)4.5−0.31+0.16−0.47
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.16−0.18+0.34
Elo rating (home)1568.0+0.05−0.23+0.28
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)115.1+0.16−0.09+0.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.5−0.01−0.20+0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.06+0.18
Combined pace, last 1098.7−1.50−1.41−0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.01+0.07
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.01+0.05
Games played (home)6.0+0.03+0.08−0.05
Elo rating (away)1546.7−0.00+0.03−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1547LAL15681.0 pts toward LAL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1547

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
  2. This season's 5 games: +6.2
  • WCHI135–92+10.0
  • W@WAS112–102+4.6
  • L@MIN94–117−11.6
  • WORL129–99+15.5
  • LORL114–121−12.3

LAL1568

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
  2. This season's 6 games: +3.8
  • WGSW127–105+7.5
  • WLAC125–117+5.9
  • W@UTA132–123+4.5
  • LPOR129–136−12.2
  • W@LAC103–87+15.5
  • L@GSW95–112−17.4
Season scoring marginTOR+4.5LAL+2.30.7 pts toward TOR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+4.5

Scores 116.8, allows 106.2 over 5 games: +10.6 a game.

25% this season (+10.6) + 75% last season (+2.5) = +4.5

LAL+2.3

Scores 118.5, allows 113.3 over 6 games: +5.2 a game.

30% this season (+5.2) + 70% last season (+1.0) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10TOR113.5LAL115.10.4 pts toward LAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR113.5scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.2%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.1%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.210+0.1
Everything else+1.3

LAL115.1scored, +0.5 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.5%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)16.0%12.2%−5.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%26.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.210+1.5
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10TOR107.2LAL118.12.4 pts toward TOR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

TOR107.2allowed, −7.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)16.4%12.2%+5.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%26.1%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2790.210−2.0
Everything else+0.8

LAL118.1allowed, +3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.5%−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.9%12.2%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.70.1 pts toward TOR

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 99.4 and LAL 97.9 → average 98.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingTOR19.5LAL11.3no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR19.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kawhi Leonard19.525.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL11.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ziaire Williams11.228.44

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysLAL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 30 against ORL.

LAL2days

Last played Oct 30 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30ORL114–12146-9111-2711-151115125.3131.591.5
Oct 28ORL129–9944-8815-3526-31148125.298.0102.0
Oct 25@MIN94–11735-9110-3814-21161495.9118.298.5
Oct 23@WAS112–10244-1017-3417-211619104.795.3107.0
Oct 21CHI135–9244-9810-3137-461016122.782.1111.0
May 3@CLE102–11438-878-2818-26147104.1116.398.0
May 1CLE112–11040-8713-3619-231510110.9107.891.9
Apr 29@CLE120–12544-9515-3817-251415118.8122.5101.5
Apr 26CLE93–8931-974-3027-36112194.991.897.5
Apr 23CLE126–10450-8714-2312-211111132.6108.395.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@GSW95–11233-8211-3918-242016102.2119.193.5
Oct 28@LAC103–8735-799-3124-331917105.189.797.5
Oct 27POR129–13645-8017-4322-30156129.0133.3101.0
Oct 25@UTA132–12340-8220-4732-38105130.7120.6101.5
Oct 23LAC125–11746-7914-3219-25218122.5113.6102.5
Oct 21GSW127–10546-8111-2824-271810124.5102.9102.0
May 11OKC110–11538-7510-2824-27197112.2117.398.0
May 9OKC108–13138-8114-3018-251614117.4140.992.5
May 7@OKC107–12539-7811-2918-212010111.5127.697.0
May 5@OKC90–10835-8510-3010-13171295.7116.193.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +6 for LAL
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statTORLAL
Final score125131
Field goals45–105 · 42.9%43–80 · 53.8%
Three-pointers17–54 · 31.5%18–37 · 48.6%
Free throws18–25 · 72.0%27–32 · 84.4%
Rebounds4745
Assists3526
Turnovers1522
Steals1411
Blocks17

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+1+6+5
Total points227256+29
TOR points113125+12
LAL points114131+17

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 vs ORL L 114–121
Oct 28 vs ORL W 129–99
Oct 25 at MIN L 94–117
Oct 23 at WAS W 112–102
Oct 21 vs CHI W 135–92

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at GSW L 95–112
Oct 28 at LAC W 103–87
Oct 27 vs POR L 129–136
Oct 25 at UTA W 132–123
Oct 23 vs LAC W 125–117

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 18 2025-26 TOR at LAL TOR 93 – 110 LAL
Dec 4 2025-26 LAL at TOR LAL 123 – 120 TOR
Nov 10 2024-25 TOR at LAL TOR 103 – 123 LAL
Nov 1 2024-25 LAL at TOR LAL 131 – 125 TOR
Apr 2 2023-24 LAL at TOR LAL 128 – 111 TOR