2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks

Sunday, April 5, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

LAL 0–1@DAL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	125	128	+3
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	116	134	+18

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1605	1329
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−205
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.5	−5.5
Games played this season	77	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.8	110.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.8	119.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	65.5	0.0
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1605DAL1329

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1605

Ended last season at 1561 → started this one at 1546
First 67 games: +20.6
Last 10 games: +38.0

W@HOU100–92+11.7
W@HOU124–116+10.8
W@MIA134–126+10.4
W@ORL105–104+4.3
L@DET110–113−3.5
W@IND137–130+2.8
WBKN116–99+2.1
WWAS120–101+2.0
WCLE127–113+10.1
L@OKC96–139−12.7

DAL1329

Ended last season at 1432 → started this one at 1449
First 68 games: −90.7
Last 10 games: −28.8

W@CLE130–120+25.4
L@NOP111–129−9.9
LATL120–135−8.8
LLAC131–138−5.6
LGSW131–137−7.1
L@DEN135–142−1.9
W@POR100–93+16.0
LMIN94–124−13.8
L@MIL99–123−15.1
LORL127–138−8.0

Season scoring marginLAL+1.5DAL−5.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+1.5

Scores 116.5, allows 115.0 over 77 games: +1.5 a game.

DAL−5.5

Scores 113.7, allows 119.2 over 78 games: −5.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL117.8DAL110.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

LAL117.8scored, +3.0 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.6%	+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.0%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.301	0.210	+2.6
Everything else			−3.7

DAL110.8scored, −4.0 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.6%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.3%	26.0%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			−0.2

Defensive rating, last 10LAL114.8DAL119.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

LAL114.8allowed, +0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.6%	+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.8%	26.0%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.210	+1.2
Everything else			−1.4

DAL119.4allowed, +4.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.6%	54.6%	−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.9%	26.0%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			+1.6

Pace, last 10average 101.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 98.8 and DAL 104.7 → average 101.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingLAL65.5DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL65.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Luka Dončić	37.7	36.4	9
Austin Reaves	20.1	36.7	10
Marcus Smart	7.8	32.0	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAL3 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL3days

Last played Apr 2 against OKC.

DAL2days

Last played Apr 3 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 2	@OKC	96–139	34-79	7-30	21-27	18	8	93.2	135.0	103.0
Mar 31	CLE	127–113	45-83	13-31	24-26	10	8	129.6	116.5	97.5
Mar 30	WAS	120–101	44-79	7-24	25-32	15	9	117.6	101.0	101.0
Mar 27	BKN	116–99	38-70	11-25	29-42	13	6	118.4	100.0	98.5
Mar 25	@IND	137–130	50-89	9-23	28-34	13	7	126.9	122.6	107.0
Mar 23	@DET	110–113	38-79	8-29	26-31	12	9	115.8	120.2	94.5
Mar 21	@ORL	105–104	39-87	8-32	19-29	12	14	110.5	108.3	95.5
Mar 19	@MIA	134–126	43-81	14-32	34-45	11	13	128.8	122.3	103.5
Mar 18	@HOU	124–116	46-76	15-32	17-27	13	5	129.2	120.8	96.0
Mar 16	@HOU	100–92	37-84	8-34	18-22	11	12	107.5	101.1	92.0

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 3	ORL	127–138	44-95	14-42	25-31	13	11	115.5	126.6	109.5
Mar 31	@MIL	99–123	34-96	10-36	21-28	14	10	90.8	111.8	109.5
Mar 30	MIN	94–124	31-89	7-29	25-34	15	8	91.3	119.2	103.5
Mar 27	@POR	100–93	36-81	7-24	21-30	17	6	96.2	89.4	104.0
Mar 25	@DEN	135–142	48-97	12-35	27-34	4	10	129.8	134.0	105.0
Mar 23	GSW	131–137	51-87	16-36	13-20	21	5	115.9	119.1	103.2
Mar 21	LAC	131–138	48-102	13-34	22-29	10	17	124.8	130.2	95.5
Mar 18	ATL	120–135	42-86	11-28	25-29	18	11	114.3	128.6	105.0
Mar 16	@NOP	111–129	44-104	14-39	9-14	11	13	101.8	118.3	109.0
Mar 15	@CLE	130–120	46-87	15-30	23-27	12	9	127.5	116.5	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner

the forecast favored LAL

15 pts

margin miss

forecast −9, actual +6 for DAL

61st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

360th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	DAL
Final score	128	134
Field goals	47–91 · 51.6%	46–88 · 52.3%
Three-pointers	8–27 · 29.6%	14–32 · 43.8%
Free throws	26–33 · 78.8%	28–36 · 77.8%
Rebounds	49	38
Assists	36	27
Turnovers	12	7
Steals	6	11
Blocks	1	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	−9	+6	+15
Total points	241	262	+21
LAL points	125	128	+3
DAL points	116	134	+18

Recent form before this game