2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets

Friday, May 1, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

LAL 0–2@HOU 2–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	105	98	−7
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	109	78	−31

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

40%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

24 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual −20 for HOU

210th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

125th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.93 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	HOU
Final score	98	78
Field goals	36–89 · 40.4%	28–80 · 35.0%
Three-pointers	12–28 · 42.9%	5–28 · 17.9%
Free throws	14–24 · 58.3%	17–24 · 70.8%
Rebounds	54	45
Assists	19	13
Turnovers	10	11
Steals	4	6
Blocks	9	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+4	−20	−24
Total points	214	176	−38
LAL points	105	98	−7
HOU points	109	78	−31

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-05-01 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.