The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 22

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers

Saturday, March 22, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHI 3–4@LAL 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 31 percent, LAL 69 percent. CHI Bulls 31% proj. 113 · final 146 LAL Lakers · home 69% proj. 120 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 113 146 +33
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 120 115 −5

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHILAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14551573
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +187
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.1+1.4
Games played this season 7069
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.5114.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.0114.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 14.50.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1455LAL1573

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1455

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
  2. First 60 games: −81.1
  3. Last 10 games: +55.2
  • L@IND112–127−4.4
  • LCLE117–139−4.8
  • W@ORL125–123+6.5
  • W@MIA114–109+10.8
  • WIND121–103+20.8
  • WBKN116–110+4.0
  • L@HOU114–117−2.2
  • W@UTA111–97+11.1
  • L@PHX121–127−5.1
  • W@SAC128–116+18.5

LAL1573

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. First 59 games: +61.8
  3. Last 10 games: −41.6
  • WNOP136–115+4.1
  • WNYK113–109+4.2
  • L@BOS101–111−6.0
  • L@BKN108–111−10.4
  • L@MIL106–126−16.0
  • L@DEN126–131−4.6
  • WPHX107–96+4.7
  • WSAS125–109+4.3
  • WDEN120–108+10.0
  • LMIL89–118−31.9
Season scoring marginCHI−3.1LAL+1.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−3.1

Scores 116.7, allows 119.8 over 70 games: −3.1 a game.

LAL+1.4

Scores 112.8, allows 111.4 over 69 games: +1.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHI115.5LAL114.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

CHI115.5scored, +1.9 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.3%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.3%12.1%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%25.2%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.194−0.3
Everything else−0.6

LAL114.4scored, +0.9 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.3%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.1%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.0%25.2%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.194−0.1
Everything else+1.3
Defensive rating, last 10CHI114.0LAL114.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.5).

CHI114.0allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.3%+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.4%12.1%−3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%25.2%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.194−0.2
Everything else−0.8

LAL114.2allowed, +0.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.3%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.1%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%25.2%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.194−1.1
Everything else+1.2
Pace, last 10average 100.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 102.5 and LAL 98.1 → average 100.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHI14.5LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI14.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tre Jones14.532.610

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-22 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHI2 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI2days

Last played Mar 20 against SAC.

LAL2days

Last played Mar 20 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 20@SAC128–11645-8615-3523-261212132.0118.497.5
Mar 19@PHX121–12749-9015-388-12138121.0125.7100.5
Mar 17@UTA111–9742-9714-4513-1699105.792.4105.0
Mar 15@HOU114–11743-9314-3814-16105111.8113.6102.5
Mar 13BKN116–11041-9011-3723-26813119.6113.497.0
Mar 10IND121–10349-9812-3311-141810112.095.4108.0
Mar 8@MIA114–10940-8811-4223-26105108.6103.8105.0
Mar 6@ORL125–12343-8615-4024-301813122.5119.4102.5
Mar 4CLE117–13947-10611-4412-1779108.3128.7108.0
Mar 2@IND112–12744-8810-3314-181212113.1129.698.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 20MIL89–11834-8211-3210-1619391.8121.697.0
Mar 19DEN120–10842-8316-3820-28137117.6105.9102.0
Mar 17SAS125–10944-9019-4818-2498123.8110.1100.0
Mar 16PHX107–9635-8114-3923-3287113.8101.194.5
Mar 14@DEN126–13149-10515-4013-16812124.8127.2102.0
Mar 13@MIL106–12638-8715-4015-18134103.9122.3102.5
Mar 10@BKN108–11137-8519-4015-19156114.9116.894.5
Mar 8@BOS101–11139-8714-409-14129106.3118.194.5
Mar 6NYK113–10938-8914-4223-281612108.7102.895.1
Mar 4NOP136–11548-9019-5221-271416138.8116.298.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
31%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored LAL
38 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual −31 for LAL
79th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
14th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.17 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHILAL
Final score146115
Field goals56–96 · 58.3%41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers19–41 · 46.3%17–41 · 41.5%
Free throws15–20 · 75.0%16–22 · 72.7%
Rebounds4235
Assists4123
Turnovers1021
Steals178
Blocks51

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+7−31−38
Total points233261+28
CHI points113146+33
LAL points120115−5

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Mar 20 at SAC W 128–116
Mar 19 at PHX L 121–127
Mar 17 at UTA W 111–97
Mar 15 at HOU L 114–117
Mar 13 vs BKN W 116–110

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Mar 20 vs MIL L 89–118
Mar 19 vs DEN W 120–108
Mar 17 vs SAS W 125–109
Mar 16 vs PHX W 107–96
Mar 14 at DEN L 126–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 25 2023-24 CHI at LAL CHI 132 – 141 LAL
Dec 20 2023-24 LAL at CHI LAL 108 – 124 CHI
Mar 29 2022-23 LAL at CHI LAL 121 – 110 CHI
Mar 26 2022-23 CHI at LAL CHI 118 – 108 LAL
Dec 19 2021-22 LAL at CHI LAL 110 – 115 CHI