2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets

Wednesday, November 8, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–0@HOU 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	114	94	−20
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	111	128	+17

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 51% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	HOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1543	1405
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−68
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.6	−5.2
Games played this season	7	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.2	111.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.9	110.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	6.0	6.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1543HOU1405

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1543

Ended last season at 1584 → started this one at 1563
This season's 7 games: −20.0

L@DEN107–119−6.5
WPHX100–95+5.1
L@SAC127–132−6.2
WORL106–103+3.0
WLAC130–125+4.8
L@ORL101–120−17.1
L@MIA107–108−3.1

HOU1405

Ended last season at 1333 → started this one at 1374
This season's 6 games: +30.7

L@ORL86–116−11.3
L@SAS122–126−4.8
LGSW95–106−6.3
WCHA128–119+8.7
WSAC107–89+21.1
WSAC122–97+23.3

Season scoring marginLAL−0.6HOU−5.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL−0.6

Scores 111.1, allows 114.6 over 7 games: −3.4 a game.

35% this season (−3.4) + 65% last season (+0.9) = −0.6

HOU−5.2

Scores 110.0, allows 108.8 over 6 games: +1.2 a game.

30% this season (+1.2) + 70% last season (−7.8) = −5.2

Offensive rating, last 10LAL109.2HOU111.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 111.8).

LAL109.2scored, −2.5 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	53.8%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.6%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.4%	24.2%	−2.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.235	0.194	+1.2
Everything else			+0.5

HOU111.5scored, −0.2 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	53.8%	−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.6%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	24.2%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.181	0.194	−0.4
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10LAL113.9HOU110.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 111.8).

LAL113.9allowed, +2.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	53.8%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.6%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	24.2%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.194	+0.8
Everything else			−1.3

HOU110.6allowed, −1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	53.8%	+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.6%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.3%	24.2%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.194	+0.1
Everything else			+1.3

Pace, last 10average 98.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 98.6 and HOU 99.2 → average 98.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.7)

Rotation points missingLAL6.0HOU6.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL6.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gabe Vincent	6.0	28.4	4

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

HOU6.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Amen Thompson	6.2	16.7	4

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-08 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysHOU2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Nov 6 against MIA.

HOU2days

Last played Nov 6 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@MIA	107–108	44-81	8-26	11-14	17	5	108.1	109.1	99.0
Nov 4	@ORL	101–120	37-84	8-30	19-21	17	10	103.1	123.7	97.5
Nov 1	LAC	130–125	46-90	11-32	27-36	14	9	119.3	113.6	99.2
Oct 30	ORL	106–103	42-79	8-27	14-18	16	3	107.1	104.0	99.0
Oct 29	@SAC	127–132	43-98	15-45	26-34	12	8	111.4	116.8	102.8
Oct 26	PHX	100–95	36-84	5-29	23-29	16	8	96.2	90.5	104.5
Oct 24	@DEN	107–119	41-90	10-29	15-20	11	13	111.5	125.3	95.5
May 22	DEN	111–113	40-86	8-20	23-26	6	8	123.3	127.0	89.5
May 20	DEN	108–119	38-84	10-32	22-29	12	11	111.3	122.7	97.0
May 18	@DEN	103–108	36-82	8-30	23-26	12	4	101.0	105.9	102.0

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	SAC	122–97	43-75	15-31	21-27	10	5	131.2	104.3	93.0
Nov 4	SAC	107–89	40-87	13-36	14-20	11	10	111.5	94.7	95.0
Nov 1	CHA	128–119	44-84	21-37	19-23	17	7	125.5	116.7	102.0
Oct 29	GSW	95–106	34-90	9-33	18-19	7	10	101.1	111.6	94.5
Oct 27	@SAS	122–126	52-100	8-32	10-20	18	11	109.9	113.5	100.5
Oct 25	@ORL	86–116	32-79	12-34	10-16	18	7	90.5	120.8	95.5
Apr 9	@WAS	114–109	44-90	6-21	20-28	15	13	107.5	103.8	105.5
Apr 7	@CHA	112–109	42-89	7-21	21-28	18	14	107.7	104.8	104.0
Apr 4	DEN	124–103	47-102	12-31	18-24	13	20	120.4	102.0	102.0
Apr 2	LAL	109–134	44-102	13-34	8-10	8	16	110.1	134.0	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

49%

pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner

the forecast favored LAL

37 pts

margin miss

forecast −3, actual +34 for HOU

416th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

18th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.72 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	HOU
Final score	94	128
Field goals	36–85 · 42.4%	51–93 · 54.8%
Three-pointers	7–25 · 28.0%	14–33 · 42.4%
Free throws	15–24 · 62.5%	12–19 · 63.2%
Rebounds	34	57
Assists	20	26
Turnovers	9	11
Steals	7	4
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	−3	+34	+37
Total points	225	222	−3
LAL points	114	94	−20
HOU points	111	128	+17

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	19	26	26	23	–	94
HOU	32	34	33	29	–	128

Recent form before this game