The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks

Friday, October 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

HOU 5–0@DAL 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 62 percent, DAL 38 percent. HOU Rockets 62% proj. 116 · final 111 DAL Mavericks · home 38% proj. 112 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 116 111 −5
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 112 116 +4

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.1 HOUElo DAL 1442, HOU 1611; season margin DAL −3.5, HOU +7.1.
  • Player availability+0.3 DALHOU without Reed Sheppard (11 ppg).

Together: HOU by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 5–0, winning by 14 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 109). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.3, getting to the line +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3. Reed Sheppard (10 ppg) is out.

DAL is 3–2, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 112). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.0% of possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents rebound 29% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors HOU.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −6.1, Player availability +0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Recent form −0.3, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving −3.7 for DAL. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −6.1 Player availability +0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Recent form −0.3 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin −3.7
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −3.7. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputHOUDALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16111442 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −100 −4.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +7.1−3.5 −1.2
Games played this season 55 −0.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.0116.6 +0.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.3116.3 −2.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.9 +1.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 10.50.0 +0.3
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDAL ptsHOU ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-99.8−1.88+3.07−4.95
Combined pace, last 1098.9−0.27−1.73+1.46
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)107.3−1.33−0.04−1.30
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)116.3+0.20+1.24−1.03
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.83−0.10+0.93
Season scoring margin (away)7.1−0.64+0.25−0.89
Rotation points missing (away)10.5−0.11+0.51−0.62
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)116.6+0.43−0.05+0.48
Season scoring margin (home)-3.5−0.14+0.22−0.36
Home series wins0.0+0.29+0.07+0.21
Elo rating (away)1611.5+0.17−0.04+0.21
Games played (away)5.0+0.17+0.36−0.20
Games played (home)5.0+0.10−0.07+0.18
Elo rating (home)1441.7−0.11+0.02−0.13
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)114.0−0.01−0.12+0.11
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.01+0.07
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.05
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (home)2.0+0.02+0.01+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1611DAL14424.9 pts toward HOU

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1611

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 5 games: +45.3
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3
  • W@MIL132–100+11.2

DAL1442

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 5 games: +53.9
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
  • LSAS106–122−5.7
  • W@MIA113–109+10.3
  • WOKC120–96+36.4
Season scoring marginHOU+7.1DAL−3.51.3 pts toward HOU

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+7.1

Scores 123.0, allows 108.8 over 5 games: +14.2 a game.

25% this season (+14.2) + 75% last season (+4.7) = +7.1

DAL−3.5

Scores 114.0, allows 112.0 over 5 games: +2.0 a game.

25% this season (+2.0) + 75% last season (−5.3) = −3.5

Offensive rating, last 10HOU114.0DAL116.60.6 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU114.0scored, −0.6 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2510.210+1.2
Everything else−0.4

DAL116.6scored, +2.0 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.5%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.2%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210−0.5
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10HOU107.3DAL116.32.3 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

HOU107.3allowed, −7.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.5%+4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.210−0.2
Everything else+0.5

DAL116.3allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.210+0.3
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 98.91.5 pts toward DAL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 96.2 and DAL 101.6 → average 98.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU10.5DAL0.00.3 pts toward DAL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU10.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Reed Sheppard10.523.34

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysDAL2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Oct 28 against MIL.

DAL2days

Last played Oct 28 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@MIL132–10046-8417-3823-26148129.498.0102.0
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6
Apr 21@LAL94–10136-897-2915-191517105.6112.289.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28OKC120–9646-9716-4512-15915122.498.098.0
Oct 26@MIA113–10943-9414-4613-141613110.8105.8102.5
Oct 24SAS106–12245-8711-285-8188103.9118.4102.5
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
38%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored HOU
9 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual +5 for DAL
17th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.96 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUDAL
Final score111116
Field goals40–96 · 41.7%42–81 · 51.9%
Three-pointers7–29 · 24.1%12–33 · 36.4%
Free throws24–33 · 72.7%20–27 · 74.1%
Rebounds4841
Assists2624
Turnovers1217
Steals128
Blocks34

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)−4+5+9
Total points228227−1
HOU points116111−5
DAL points112116+4

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at MIL W 132–100
Oct 26 vs ATL W 120–110
Oct 24 at ATL W 121–114
Oct 23 at SAS W 114–110
Oct 21 vs DAL W 128–110

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs OKC W 120–96
Oct 26 at MIA W 113–109
Oct 24 vs SAS L 106–122
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 21 2026-27 DAL at HOU DAL 110 – 128 HOU
Jan 31 2025-26 DAL at HOU DAL 107 – 111 HOU
Jan 3 2025-26 HOU at DAL HOU 104 – 110 DAL
Dec 6 2025-26 HOU at DAL HOU 109 – 122 DAL
Nov 3 2025-26 DAL at HOU DAL 102 – 110 HOU