The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 30

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns

Sunday, March 30, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

HOU 1–2@PHX 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 59 percent, PHX 41 percent. HOU Rockets 59% proj. 114 · final 148 PHX Suns · home 41% proj. 110 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 114 148 +34
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 110 109 −1

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputHOUPHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15861484
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −32
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.8−1.6
Games played this season 7374
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.5118.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.0117.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.814.7
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1586PHX1484

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1586

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1516 → started this one at 1512
  2. First 63 games: +38.2
  3. Last 10 games: +36.1
  • WORL97–84+4.9
  • WPHX111–104+4.0
  • WDAL133–96+12.0
  • WCHI117–114+2.2
  • WPHI144–137+2.3
  • W@ORL116–108+7.1
  • W@MIA102–98+4.0
  • LDEN111–116−8.6
  • WATL121–114+3.9
  • W@UTA121–110+4.3

PHX1484

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1587 → started this one at 1565
  2. First 64 games: −111.8
  3. Last 10 games: +31.0
  • L@MEM118–120−2.0
  • L@HOU104–111−4.0
  • WSAC122–106+13.6
  • L@LAL96–107−4.7
  • WTOR129–89+17.1
  • WCHI127–121+5.1
  • WCLE123–112+18.4
  • WMIL108–106+5.2
  • LBOS102–132−12.1
  • L@MIN109–124−5.6
Season scoring marginHOU+4.8PHX−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+4.8

Scores 114.0, allows 109.1 over 73 games: +4.8 a game.

PHX−1.6

Scores 114.4, allows 116.0 over 74 games: −1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10HOU118.5PHX118.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

HOU118.5scored, +4.8 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.4%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.1%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)38.8%25.2%+6.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.193−0.0
Everything else−1.5

PHX118.9scored, +5.2 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.8%54.4%+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.1%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%25.2%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.193−0.6
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10HOU110.0PHX117.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

HOU110.0allowed, −3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.4%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.1%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.0%25.2%+3.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.193+0.6
Everything else−1.6

PHX117.9allowed, +4.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.4%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.1%−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%25.2%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.193−0.1
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 96.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 97.4 and PHX 95.7 → average 96.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingHOU13.8PHX14.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU13.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tari Eason13.828.89

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX14.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Bradley Beal14.724.83

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-30 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestHOU3 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU3days

Last played Mar 27 against UTA.

PHX2days

Last played Mar 28 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 27@UTA121–11047-10212-3715-19918123.5113.497.5
Mar 25ATL121–11442-9311-3926-291314117.5112.9102.0
Mar 23DEN111–11639-8911-3422-34616120.7124.792.5
Mar 21@MIA102–9839-8414-2810-211515106.3103.295.5
Mar 19@ORL116–10838-8111-3529-321512120.8111.396.5
Mar 17PHI144–13751-10722-5320-241523130.9126.998.7
Mar 15CHI117–11444-9814-4415-261116113.6111.8102.5
Mar 14DAL133–9654-10515-3110-121017130.493.2102.5
Mar 12PHX111–10440-8812-3819-25911116.8110.694.5
Mar 10ORL97–8435-8916-4311-181920104.392.392.0

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 28@MIN109–12441-7918-379-13168116.0130.594.5
Mar 26BOS102–13236-8713-4117-211311106.3137.596.0
Mar 24MIL108–10639-8214-3616-181614117.4116.591.5
Mar 21CLE123–11248-9219-428-81312128.1116.796.0
Mar 19CHI127–12147-9615-4018-201113125.7121.0100.5
Mar 17TOR129–8947-9220-3915-151012134.493.795.5
Mar 16@LAL96–10735-899-4117-211414101.1113.894.5
Mar 14SAC122–10641-7924-4316-19117129.8110.495.0
Mar 12@HOU104–11139-7310-2816-20164110.6116.894.5
Mar 10@MEM118–12041-9020-3816-221615119.2122.498.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
35 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual −39 for PHX
622nd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
19th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUPHX
Final score148109
Field goals56–98 · 57.1%42–87 · 48.3%
Three-pointers18–31 · 58.1%10–32 · 31.3%
Free throws18–25 · 72.0%15–17 · 88.2%
Rebounds4539
Assists3725
Turnovers919
Steals148
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)−4−39−35
Total points224257+33
HOU points114148+34
PHX points110109−1

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Mar 27 at UTA W 121–110
Mar 25 vs ATL W 121–114
Mar 23 vs DEN L 111–116
Mar 21 at MIA W 102–98
Mar 19 at ORL W 116–108

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Mar 28 at MIN L 109–124
Mar 26 vs BOS L 102–132
Mar 24 vs MIL W 108–106
Mar 21 vs CLE W 123–112
Mar 19 vs CHI W 127–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 12 2024-25 PHX at HOU PHX 104 – 111 HOU
Feb 12 2024-25 PHX at HOU PHX 111 – 119 HOU
Mar 2 2023-24 HOU at PHX HOU 118 – 109 PHX
Feb 29 2023-24 HOU at PHX HOU 105 – 110 PHX
Feb 23 2023-24 PHX at HOU PHX 110 – 114 HOU