2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
Wednesday, February 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
BOS 1–4@HOU 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS Boston Celtics | 105 | 114 | +9 |
| HOU Houston Rockets (home) | 112 | 93 | −19 |
Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1632 | 1610 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +48 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +7.1 | +6.0 |
| Games played this season | 50 | 48 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 117.2 | 112.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 106.9 | 108.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 96.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 57.8 | 3.1 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingBOS1632HOU1610
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
BOS1632
- Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
- First 40 games: +1.7
- Last 10 games: +7.2
- W@ATL132–106+15.0
- L@DET103–104−3.2
- WIND119–104+2.7
- W@BKN130–126+2.3
- L@CHI111–114−7.8
- WPOR102–94+3.8
- LATL106–117−20.9
- WSAC112–93+3.3
- WMIL107–79+5.6
- W@DAL110–100+6.4
HOU1610
- Ended last season at 1585 → started this one at 1564
- First 38 games: +22.0
- Last 10 games: +24.7
- WMIN110–105+6.4
- WNOP119–110+2.0
- WSAS111–106+5.5
- L@PHI122–128−9.3
- W@DET111–104+12.3
- WMEM108–99+3.7
- LSAS99–111−16.1
- W@ATL104–86+14.6
- WDAL111–107+2.2
- W@IND118–114+3.4
Season scoring marginBOS+7.1HOU+6.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
BOS+7.1
Scores 116.0, allows 108.9 over 50 games: +7.1 a game.
HOU+6.0
Scores 116.0, allows 110.0 over 48 games: +6.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10BOS117.2HOU112.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
BOS117.2scored, +2.6 vs league
| Factor | BOS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.8% | 54.4% | −0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.3% | 12.2% | +2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.144 | 0.211 | −1.9 | |
| Everything else | +2.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
HOU112.9scored, −1.7 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.8% | 54.4% | −3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 12.2% | +1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.193 | 0.211 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | +1.5 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10BOS106.9HOU108.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
BOS106.9allowed, −7.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 49.1% | 54.4% | +8.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.2% | 12.2% | −1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.185 | 0.211 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
HOU108.7allowed, −5.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.5% | 54.4% | +4.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.5% | 12.2% | −1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.165 | 0.211 | +1.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 96.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
BOS 94.8 and HOU 97.5 → average 96.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingBOS57.8HOU3.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
BOS57.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 29.7 | 35.3 | 9 |
| Anfernee Simons | 14.4 | 25.8 | 9 |
| Sam Hauser | 13.7 | 28.6 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-04 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
HOU3.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 3.1 | 15.5 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestBOS1 daysHOU2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
BOS1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 3 against DAL.
HOU2days
Last played Feb 2 against IND.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
BOS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 | @DAL | 110–100 | 47-96 | 13-39 | 3-5 | 9 | – | 115.8 | 104.2 | 95.5 |
| Feb 1 | MIL | 107–79 | 41-92 | 15-42 | 10-13 | 9 | – | 124.4 | 90.8 | 86.5 |
| Jan 30 | SAC | 112–93 | 42-93 | 18-48 | 10-16 | 7 | – | 124.4 | 103.3 | 90.0 |
| Jan 28 | ATL | 106–117 | 42-89 | 9-34 | 13-16 | 16 | – | 110.4 | 120.6 | 96.5 |
| Jan 26 | POR | 102–94 | 39-90 | 13-34 | 11-18 | 17 | – | 104.1 | 95.9 | 98.0 |
| Jan 24 | @CHI | 111–114 | 44-99 | 15-47 | 8-9 | 6 | – | 120.7 | 123.9 | 92.0 |
| Jan 23 | @BKN | 130–126 | 49-109 | 22-51 | 10-16 | 8 | – | 118.2 | 114.5 | 91.0 |
| Jan 21 | IND | 119–104 | 42-88 | 12-31 | 23-25 | 14 | – | 117.8 | 103.0 | 101.0 |
| Jan 19 | @DET | 103–104 | 33-83 | 13-41 | 24-30 | 14 | – | 110.8 | 111.8 | 93.0 |
| Jan 17 | @ATL | 132–106 | 46-91 | 22-52 | 18-22 | 16 | – | 125.7 | 101.0 | 105.0 |
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 | @IND | 118–114 | 40-87 | 7-22 | 31-37 | 15 | – | 120.4 | 115.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 31 | DAL | 111–107 | 45-108 | 10-26 | 11-15 | 5 | – | 112.1 | 108.1 | 99.0 |
| Jan 29 | @ATL | 104–86 | 39-92 | 12-31 | 14-20 | 11 | – | 114.3 | 95.6 | 90.5 |
| Jan 28 | SAS | 99–111 | 39-99 | 8-23 | 13-18 | 11 | – | 100.0 | 112.1 | 99.0 |
| Jan 26 | MEM | 108–99 | 41-92 | 11-37 | 15-20 | 16 | – | 108.0 | 101.0 | 99.0 |
| Jan 23 | @DET | 111–104 | 39-79 | 9-26 | 24-30 | 15 | – | 113.3 | 106.1 | 98.0 |
| Jan 22 | @PHI | 122–128 | 46-99 | 18-40 | 12-24 | 16 | – | 116.2 | 123.1 | 94.6 |
| Jan 20 | SAS | 111–106 | 43-83 | 10-27 | 15-22 | 14 | – | 112.1 | 107.1 | 99.0 |
| Jan 18 | NOP | 119–110 | 45-90 | 13-36 | 16-22 | 15 | – | 120.2 | 111.1 | 99.0 |
| Jan 16 | MIN | 110–105 | 39-84 | 12-28 | 20-34 | 12 | – | 112.2 | 107.1 | 98.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 114 | 93 |
| Field goals | 39–90 · 43.3% | 34–82 · 41.5% |
| Three-pointers | 19–51 · 37.3% | 11–30 · 36.7% |
| Free throws | 17–20 · 85.0% | 14–22 · 63.6% |
| Rebounds | 57 | 38 |
| Assists | 26 | 16 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 9 |
| Steals | 6 | 10 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Houston Rockets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (HOU) | +7 | −21 | −28 |
| Total points | 217 | 207 | −10 |
| BOS points | 105 | 114 | +9 |
| HOU points | 112 | 93 | −19 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 2025-26 | HOU at BOS | HOU 128 – 101 BOS |
| Jan 27 2024-25 | HOU at BOS | HOU 114 – 112 BOS |
| Jan 3 2024-25 | BOS at HOU | BOS 109 – 86 HOU |
| Jan 21 2023-24 | BOS at HOU | BOS 116 – 107 HOU |
| Jan 13 2023-24 | HOU at BOS | HOU 113 – 145 BOS |