The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 2

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns

Friday, December 2, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

HOU 1–0@PHX 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 16 percent, PHX 84 percent. HOU Rockets 16% proj. 107 · final 122 PHX Suns · home 84% proj. 123 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 107 122 +15
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 123 121 −2

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 84% win probability, projected margin 16.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputHOUPHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13521618
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +337
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.8+7.4
Games played this season 2121
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.5117.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.2112.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.010.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1352PHX1618

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1352

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1311 → started this one at 1359
  2. First 11 games: −15.4
  3. Last 10 games: +8.5
  • L@TOR109–116−2.1
  • L@NOP106–119−3.6
  • LLAC106–122−10.7
  • W@DAL101–92+22.7
  • LIND91–99−8.1
  • LGSW120–127−4.1
  • WATL128–122+11.8
  • WOKC118–105+12.1
  • L@DEN113–129−4.5
  • L@DEN100–120−5.0

PHX1618

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
  2. First 11 games: +38.5
  3. Last 10 games: +5.3
  • L@ORL97–114−24.5
  • L@MIA112–113−3.4
  • WGSW130–119+8.3
  • L@UTA133–134−3.6
  • WNYK116–95+8.5
  • WLAL115–105+3.4
  • WDET108–102+1.9
  • WUTA113–112+2.2
  • W@SAC122–117+5.7
  • WCHI132–113+6.8
Season scoring marginHOU−6.8PHX+7.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU−6.8

Scores 109.8, allows 116.6 over 21 games: −6.8 a game.

PHX+7.4

Scores 115.8, allows 108.4 over 21 games: +7.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10HOU109.5PHX117.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

HOU109.5scored, −2.6 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.0%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)15.8%12.7%−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.3%23.9%+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.209+1.0
Everything else+0.5

PHX117.8scored, +5.7 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.0%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.7%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%23.9%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1560.209−1.5
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10HOU115.2PHX112.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

HOU115.2allowed, +3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.0%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.7%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%23.9%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.209−0.6
Everything else−0.5

PHX112.6allowed, +0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.0%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.7%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.9%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.209−0.5
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 99.8 and PHX 100.0 → average 99.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0PHX10.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX10.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Torrey Craig10.030.110

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-02 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Nov 30 against DEN.

PHX2days

Last played Nov 30 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 30@DEN100–12037-8812-4114-181410106.4127.794.0
Nov 28@DEN113–12939-8516-4419-251712116.5133.097.0
Nov 26OKC118–10545-8618-3610-142411112.499.1105.5
Nov 25ATL128–12241-8712-3534-412122123.1115.1105.0
Nov 20GSW120–12741-9015-4523-271212117.6124.5102.0
Nov 18IND91–9929-866-2827-32171493.8102.197.0
Nov 16@DAL101–9235-7510-2221-24209103.193.998.0
Nov 14LAC106–12239-869-3019-311410105.0120.8101.0
Nov 12@NOP106–11940-7912-3614-182610105.0117.8101.0
Nov 9@TOR109–11637-849-3526-311616112.4118.497.5

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 30CHI132–11349-9315-3319-211310126.9108.7104.0
Nov 28@SAC122–11750-9410-3212-141711117.3111.4104.5
Nov 26UTA113–11242-926-2223-30618120.2119.194.0
Nov 25DET108–10242-877-2917-261311108.0103.099.5
Nov 22LAL115–10548-10216-343-5158106.595.5109.0
Nov 20NYK116–9543-10117-3913-181322122.199.095.5
Nov 18@UTA133–13449-949-3026-281412127.9131.4103.0
Nov 16GSW130–11944-8621-4021-25158121.5111.2107.0
Nov 14@MIA112–11348-9914-362-41120123.1124.291.0
Nov 11@ORL97–11438-9513-428-91111104.3122.693.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
16%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
the forecast favored PHX
17 pts
margin miss
forecast +16, actual −1 for PHX
4th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
232nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.85 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUPHX
Final score122121
Field goals40–81 · 49.4%45–85 · 52.9%
Three-pointers8–24 · 33.3%17–37 · 45.9%
Free throws34–43 · 79.1%14–19 · 73.7%
Rebounds4137
Assists1930
Turnovers1617
Steals129
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)+16−1−17
Total points230243+13
HOU points107122+15
PHX points123121−2

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 30 at DEN L 100–120
Nov 28 at DEN L 113–129
Nov 26 vs OKC W 118–105
Nov 25 vs ATL W 128–122
Nov 20 vs GSW L 120–127

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Nov 30 vs CHI W 132–113
Nov 28 at SAC W 122–117
Nov 26 vs UTA W 113–112
Nov 25 vs DET W 108–102
Nov 22 vs LAL W 115–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 30 2022-23 HOU at PHX HOU 109 – 124 PHX
Mar 16 2021-22 PHX at HOU PHX 129 – 112 HOU
Feb 16 2021-22 HOU at PHX HOU 121 – 124 PHX
Nov 14 2021-22 PHX at HOU PHX 115 – 89 HOU
Nov 4 2021-22 HOU at PHX HOU 111 – 123 PHX