The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

OKC 4–1@HOU 5–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: OKC 47 percent, HOU 53 percent. OKC Thunder 47% proj. 109 · final 98 HOU Rockets · home 53% proj. 110 · final 119
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 109 98 −11
HOU Houston Rockets (home) 110 119 +9

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans HOU

  • Home court+2.1 HOUWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+4.1 OKCElo HOU 1602, OKC 1673; season margin HOU +6.6, OKC +8.9.
  • Player availability+1.6 HOUOKC without Jalen Williams (14 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (12 ppg) and 2 more; HOU without Fred VanVleet (13 ppg) and Reed Sheppard (11 ppg).
  • Recent form+0.9 HOULast 10 games, per 100 possessions: HOU scores 114.4 and allows 107.7; OKC scores 107.7 and allows 109.6.

Together: HOU by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

HOU is 5–1, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 110). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: getting to the line +1.4, offensive rebounding +1.4. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3. Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard are out (24 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC is 4–1, winning by 4 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 105). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.2. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are out (41 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors HOU; left favors OKC.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −4.1, Player availability +1.6, Recent form +0.9, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.2, giving +0.2 for HOU. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −4.1 Player availability +1.6 Recent form +0.9 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin +0.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +0.2. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputOKCHOUEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16731602 −0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −1 −2.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.9+6.6 −0.8
Games played this season 56 −0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.7114.4 +1.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.6107.7 +0.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0 −1.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 41.323.5 +1.6
Rest days 31 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueHOU ptsOKC ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-1.4−1.15+1.19−2.34
Rotation points missing (away)41.3+0.27−1.29+1.56
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.7−0.46−1.99+1.53
Season scoring margin (away)8.9−0.83+0.57−1.40
Combined pace, last 1098.0−2.32−1.07−1.25
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.7+0.04−1.18+1.21
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)109.6−0.96−0.10−0.87
Games played (away)5.0+0.10+0.79−0.69
Season scoring margin (home)6.6+0.28−0.34+0.62
Elo rating (away)1673.0−0.58−0.19−0.40
Rest days (home)1.0−0.25+0.04−0.29
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.4+0.06−0.20+0.26
Elo rating (home)1601.7−0.00−0.24+0.23
Back-to-back (home)1−0.19+0.03−0.22
Home series wins0.0+0.29+0.11+0.19
Games played (home)6.0−0.02+0.08−0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.09+0.06+0.03
Rest days (away)3.0+0.02+0.00+0.02
Rotation points missing (home)23.5+0.04+0.03+0.00
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1673HOU16022.5 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1673

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
  2. This season's 5 games: −9.2
  • W@SAS116–104+15.8
  • WDEN96–84+5.4
  • WLAC108–101+2.8
  • WPHX125–114+3.2
  • L@DAL96–120−36.4

HOU1602

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. This season's 6 games: +35.5
  • WDAL128–110+4.9
  • W@SAS114–110+11.1
  • W@ATL121–114+10.8
  • WATL120–110+7.3
  • W@MIL132–100+11.2
  • L@DAL111–116−9.8
Season scoring marginOKC+8.9HOU+6.61.6 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+8.9

Scores 108.2, allows 104.6 over 5 games: +3.6 a game.

25% this season (+3.6) + 75% last season (+10.7) = +8.9

HOU+6.6

Scores 121.0, allows 110.0 over 6 games: +11.0 a game.

30% this season (+11.0) + 70% last season (+4.7) = +6.6

Offensive rating, last 10OKC107.7HOU114.41.5 pts toward HOU

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC107.7scored, −6.9 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.4%54.5%−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210+0.4
Everything else−0.3

HOU114.4scored, −0.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2590.210+1.4
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10OKC109.6HOU107.70.7 pts toward HOU

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

OKC109.6allowed, −5.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.2%54.5%+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.210−0.2
Everything else−1.6

HOU107.7allowed, −6.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.5%+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.2%+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210−0.0
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.01.3 pts toward OKC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

OKC 98.7 and HOU 97.3 → average 98.0 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingOKC41.3HOU23.51.6 pts toward HOU

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC41.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Williams13.731.63
Chet Holmgren12.029.93
Alex Caruso9.218.94
Cason Wallace6.316.33

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

HOU23.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Fred VanVleet13.030.45
Reed Sheppard10.523.34

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestOKC3 daysHOU1 days0.5 pts toward OKC

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC3days

Last played Oct 28 against DAL.

HOU1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 30 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@DAL96–12036-875-3219-23131298.0122.498.0
Oct 26PHX125–11444-8612-3225-291612127.6117.597.5
Oct 25LAC108–10142-948-2416-171615105.999.0102.0
Oct 22DEN96–8436-9511-4313-141216102.189.494.0
Oct 20@SAS116–10443-9514-3116-201110113.7102.0102.0
May 30SAS103–11137-8312-3517-221310109.6120.793.0
May 28@SAS91–11835-9410-4011-12121291.0119.299.5
May 26SAS127–11440-8314-3233-381614124.5112.9101.5
May 24@SAS82–10330-916-3316-18171180.4102.0101.5
May 22@SAS123–10839-8117-3828-33107124.2111.398.0

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@DAL111–11640-967-2924-331220109.9116.0100.5
Oct 28@MIL132–10046-8417-3823-26148129.498.0102.0
Oct 26ATL120–11043-818-2726-322112114.3105.8104.5
Oct 24@ATL121–11443-8914-3521-231413121.0115.299.5
Oct 23@SAS114–11038-7810-2528-31158117.5112.297.5
Oct 21DAL128–11047-8816-3618-251517130.6111.198.5
May 1LAL78–9828-805-2817-2411883.9106.592.5
Apr 29@LAL99–9333-7514-4019-25106110.0103.390.0
Apr 26LAL115–9639-8112-3025-311311122.3103.293.5
Apr 24LAL108–11240-9811-3917-231518104.9105.794.6

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +21 for HOU
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
26th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statOKCHOU
Final score98119
Field goals37–85 · 43.5%41–90 · 45.6%
Three-pointers10–32 · 31.3%18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws14–15 · 93.3%19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds4244
Assists2029
Turnovers1310
Steals85
Blocks47

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)+1+21+20
Total points219217−2
OKC points10998−11
HOU points110119+9

Recent form before this game

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at DAL L 96–120
Oct 26 vs PHX W 125–114
Oct 25 vs LAC W 108–101
Oct 22 vs DEN W 96–84
Oct 20 at SAS W 116–104

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at DAL L 111–116
Oct 28 at MIL W 132–100
Oct 26 vs ATL W 120–110
Oct 24 at ATL W 121–114
Oct 23 at SAS W 114–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 7 2025-26 HOU at OKC HOU 112 – 106 OKC
Jan 15 2025-26 OKC at HOU OKC 111 – 91 HOU
Oct 21 2025-26 HOU at OKC HOU 124 – 125 OKC
Apr 4 2024-25 OKC at HOU OKC 111 – 125 HOU
Mar 3 2024-25 HOU at OKC HOU 128 – 137 OKC