2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, March 11, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET
HOU 1–4@DEN 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | 116 | 93 | −23 |
| DEN Denver Nuggets (home) | 117 | 129 | +12 |
Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | HOU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1591 | 1554 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +33 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +4.9 | +3.6 |
| Games played this season | 64 | 65 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.6 | 115.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 112.0 | 114.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.2 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingHOU1591DEN1554
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
HOU1591
- Ended last season at 1585 → started this one at 1564
- First 54 games: +32.0
- Last 10 games: −4.6
- L@NYK106–108−3.6
- WUTA125–105+3.4
- WSAC128–97+3.9
- W@ORL113–108+6.4
- L@MIA105–115−10.7
- W@WAS123–118+2.4
- LGSW113–115−8.2
- WPOR106–99+3.7
- L@SAS120–145−9.2
- WTOR113–99+7.3
DEN1554
- Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
- First 55 games: −34.8
- Last 10 games: −1.2
- L@LAC114–115−3.1
- W@POR157–103+35.2
- L@GSW117–128−10.9
- WBOS103–84+16.9
- L@OKC121–127−3.9
- LMIN108–117−13.3
- W@UTA128–125+2.3
- WLAL120–113+5.3
- LNYK103–142−27.6
- L@OKC126–129−2.1
Season scoring marginHOU+4.9DEN+3.6
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
HOU+4.9
Scores 114.6, allows 109.7 over 64 games: +4.9 a game.
DEN+3.6
Scores 120.3, allows 116.6 over 65 games: +3.6 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10HOU116.6DEN115.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
HOU116.6scored, +2.1 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.4% | +3.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.8% | 12.2% | −3.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.207 | 0.210 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +2.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
DEN115.7scored, +1.2 vs league
| Factor | DEN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.3% | 54.4% | +1.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.4% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.259 | 0.210 | +1.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10HOU112.0DEN114.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
HOU112.0allowed, −2.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.0% | 54.4% | +2.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.0% | 12.2% | −1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.210 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | +1.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
DEN114.7allowed, +0.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.4% | −3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.3% | 12.2% | −2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.185 | 0.210 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | +5.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.2
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
HOU 98.1 and DEN 102.3 → average 100.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingHOU3.6DEN0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
HOU3.6pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 3.6 | 20.3 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-11 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
DEN0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-11 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestHOU1 daysDEN2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
HOU1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 10 against TOR.
DEN2days
Last played Mar 9 against OKC.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | TOR | 113–99 | 41-82 | 10-24 | 21-27 | 17 | 15 | 117.7 | 103.1 | 96.0 |
| Mar 8 | @SAS | 120–145 | 42-87 | 8-28 | 28-32 | 12 | – | 118.8 | 142.2 | 101.5 |
| Mar 6 | POR | 106–99 | 41-76 | 5-19 | 19-26 | 22 | – | 107.1 | 98.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 5 | GSW | 113–115 | 44-96 | 14-34 | 11-15 | 17 | 17 | 113.0 | 116.2 | 90.1 |
| Mar 2 | @WAS | 123–118 | 45-92 | 9-25 | 24-28 | 20 | 21 | 119.4 | 114.6 | 103.0 |
| Feb 28 | @MIA | 105–115 | 41-95 | 9-36 | 14-21 | 10 | 15 | 106.1 | 117.3 | 98.5 |
| Feb 26 | @ORL | 113–108 | 43-82 | 11-29 | 16-20 | 13 | 10 | 125.6 | 118.7 | 90.5 |
| Feb 25 | SAC | 128–97 | 47-86 | 17-39 | 17-19 | 11 | 9 | 132.0 | 100.0 | 97.0 |
| Feb 23 | UTA | 125–105 | 49-86 | 18-40 | 9-11 | 26 | 10 | 115.7 | 96.3 | 108.5 |
| Feb 21 | @NYK | 106–108 | 38-80 | 12-31 | 18-23 | 19 | – | 110.4 | 113.7 | 95.5 |
DEN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | @OKC | 126–129 | 45-98 | 15-37 | 21-29 | 7 | – | 126.0 | 129.0 | 100.0 |
| Mar 6 | NYK | 103–142 | 37-83 | 8-40 | 21-30 | 15 | – | 103.0 | 140.6 | 100.5 |
| Mar 5 | LAL | 120–113 | 39-75 | 14-31 | 28-31 | 18 | – | 121.2 | 116.5 | 98.0 |
| Mar 2 | @UTA | 128–125 | 40-74 | 16-39 | 32-35 | 15 | 8 | 125.5 | 125.0 | 101.0 |
| Mar 1 | MIN | 108–117 | 41-85 | 6-22 | 20-27 | 13 | 11 | 106.9 | 117.0 | 100.5 |
| Feb 27 | @OKC | 121–127 | 43-103 | 18-48 | 17-22 | 17 | 11 | 105.2 | 110.4 | 104.2 |
| Feb 25 | BOS | 103–84 | 39-93 | 15-43 | 10-18 | 8 | 14 | 108.4 | 88.4 | 95.0 |
| Feb 22 | @GSW | 117–128 | 42-91 | 8-31 | 25-29 | 17 | – | 110.4 | 120.8 | 106.0 |
| Feb 20 | @POR | 157–103 | 55-96 | 21-41 | 26-32 | 15 | – | 142.7 | 92.0 | 111.0 |
| Feb 19 | @LAC | 114–115 | 39-86 | 13-40 | 23-31 | 17 | – | 107.5 | 107.5 | 106.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | HOU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 93 | 129 |
| Field goals | 42–97 · 43.3% | 48–87 · 55.2% |
| Three-pointers | 4–33 · 12.1% | 17–32 · 53.1% |
| Free throws | 5–14 · 35.7% | 16–22 · 72.7% |
| Rebounds | 44 | 42 |
| Assists | 25 | 36 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 9 |
| Steals | 7 | 12 |
| Blocks | 6 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Denver Nuggets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DEN) | +1 | +36 | +35 |
| Total points | 233 | 222 | −11 |
| HOU points | 116 | 93 | −23 |
| DEN points | 117 | 129 | +12 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20 2025-26 | HOU at DEN | HOU 115 – 101 DEN |
| Dec 15 2025-26 | HOU at DEN | HOU 125 – 128 DEN |
| Nov 21 2025-26 | DEN at HOU | DEN 112 – 109 HOU |
| Apr 13 2024-25 | DEN at HOU | DEN 126 – 111 HOU |
| Mar 23 2024-25 | DEN at HOU | DEN 116 – 111 HOU |