2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

MIN 5–3@HOU 7–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	101	117	+16
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	118	107	−11

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 87% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

13%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

27 pts

margin miss

forecast +17, actual −10 for HOU

1st

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

12th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 2.07 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	HOU
Final score	117	107
Field goals	46–87 · 52.9%	35–82 · 42.7%
Three-pointers	15–35 · 42.9%	13–37 · 35.1%
Free throws	10–19 · 52.6%	24–30 · 80.0%
Rebounds	45	41
Assists	28	22
Turnovers	17	18
Steals	12	6
Blocks	8	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+17	−10	−27
Total points	219	224	+5
MIN points	101	117	+16
HOU points	118	107	−11

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.