2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

Friday, April 10, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

MIN 1–9@HOU 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	106	136	+30
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	117	132	+15

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	HOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1536	1615
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+149
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.3	+5.0
Games played this season	80	80
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	107.0	122.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.9	109.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	44.7	0.0
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1536HOU1615

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1536

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 70 games: −89.7
Last 10 games: −17.1

LPOR104–108−9.9
W@BOS102–92+18.1
WHOU110–108+3.5
LDET87–109−16.4
W@DAL124–94+13.8
L@DET108–113−3.3
L@PHI103–115−10.7
LCHA108–122−11.6
W@IND124–104+9.2
L@ORL120–132−9.8

HOU1615

Ended last season at 1585 → started this one at 1564
First 70 games: +1.4
Last 10 games: +49.5

L@CHI124–132−13.5
L@MIN108–110−3.5
W@MEM119–109+6.2
W@NOP134–102+19.0
WNYK111–94+14.8
WMIL119–113+1.8
WUTA140–106+3.5
W@GSW117–116+3.0
W@PHX119–105+13.0
WPHI113–102+5.2

Season scoring marginMIN+3.3HOU+5.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+3.3

Scores 117.6, allows 114.3 over 80 games: +3.3 a game.

HOU+5.0

Scores 114.8, allows 109.8 over 80 games: +5.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN107.0HOU122.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN107.0scored, −7.8 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.6%	−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	26.0%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.168	0.209	−1.2
Everything else			+0.0

HOU122.0scored, +7.2 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.6%	+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.5%	26.0%	+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.209	−0.4
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10MIN107.9HOU109.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

MIN107.9allowed, −6.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.3%	54.6%	+5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	12.2%	+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	26.0%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.209	−0.5
Everything else			+0.3

HOU109.9allowed, −4.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.6%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	26.0%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.209	+0.3
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 100.8 and HOU 98.1 → average 99.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingMIN44.7HOU0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN44.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Julius Randle	20.0	33.5	9
Bones Hyland	13.9	25.2	10
Rudy Gobert	10.8	30.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-10 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysHOU1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Apr 8 against ORL.

HOU1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 9 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 8	@ORL	120–132	45-90	18-44	12-14	16	9	118.8	130.7	101.0
Apr 7	@IND	124–104	46-89	17-41	15-16	18	10	119.2	101.0	103.5
Apr 5	CHA	108–122	38-83	14-38	18-23	17	13	111.3	124.5	97.5
Apr 3	@PHI	103–115	38-101	14-43	13-20	12	13	101.0	111.7	102.5
Apr 2	@DET	108–113	38-86	13-42	19-25	14	5	103.8	109.7	103.5
Mar 30	@DAL	124–94	51-96	14-31	8-12	10	6	119.2	91.3	103.5
Mar 28	DET	87–109	27-85	9-43	24-33	14	13	87.9	111.2	98.5
Mar 25	HOU	110–108	45-108	13-37	7-10	15	16	102.8	100.0	97.4
Mar 22	@BOS	102–92	39-91	12-33	12-15	14	12	102.0	91.1	100.5
Mar 20	POR	104–108	36-91	9-28	23-29	13	14	104.0	108.0	100.0

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	PHI	113–102	42-93	11-32	18-26	15	16	110.8	99.0	102.5
Apr 7	@PHX	119–105	45-100	14-38	15-16	17	24	121.4	108.2	97.5
Apr 5	@GSW	117–116	44-80	13-29	16-19	13	8	124.5	123.4	94.0
Apr 3	UTA	140–106	51-92	15-32	23-30	10	10	138.6	102.9	102.0
Apr 1	MIL	119–113	41-87	18-42	19-22	7	12	125.3	121.5	94.0
Mar 31	NYK	111–94	42-78	15-35	12-16	8	6	127.6	105.6	88.0
Mar 29	@NOP	134–102	49-105	18-44	18-21	6	22	135.4	102.0	99.5
Mar 27	@MEM	119–109	44-93	12-33	19-26	14	21	122.7	112.4	97.0
Mar 25	@MIN	108–110	38-93	9-29	23-25	20	17	100.0	102.8	97.4
Mar 23	@CHI	124–132	49-92	11-41	15-24	17	8	113.8	121.1	109.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

22%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −4 for HOU

33rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

360th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	HOU
Final score	136	132
Field goals	51–89 · 57.3%	53–87 · 60.9%
Three-pointers	15–30 · 50.0%	4–19 · 21.1%
Free throws	19–25 · 76.0%	22–28 · 78.6%
Rebounds	25	39
Assists	27	29
Turnovers	7	12
Steals	7	4
Blocks	7	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+11	−4	−15
Total points	223	268	+45
MIN points	106	136	+30
HOU points	117	132	+15

Recent form before this game