2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Monday, December 1, 2025 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET
HOU 0–0@UTA 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | 127 | 125 | −2 |
| UTA Utah Jazz (home) | 114 | 133 | +19 |
Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 13.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | HOU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1660 | 1355 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −235 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +10.6 | −7.8 |
| Games played this season | 17 | 19 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 122.2 | 115.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.5 | 122.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.5 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 16.4 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingHOU1660UTA1355
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
HOU1660
- Ended last season at 1585 → started this one at 1564
- First 7 games: +49.9
- Last 10 games: +46.5
- L@SAS110–121−13.7
- W@MIL122–115+9.1
- WWAS135–112+2.1
- WPOR140–116+9.8
- WORL117–113+3.0
- W@CLE114–104+13.1
- LDEN109–112−6.6
- W@PHX114–92+15.9
- W@GSW104–100+6.0
- W@UTA129–101+7.8
UTA1355
- Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
- First 9 games: +6.8
- Last 10 games: +10.1
- LMIN113–120−3.3
- WIND152–128+26.0
- LATL122–132−7.0
- WCHI150–147+7.7
- L@LAL126–140−3.4
- LOKC112–144−4.9
- LLAL106–108−2.5
- L@GSW117–134−4.2
- WSAC128–119+9.5
- LHOU101–129−7.8
Season scoring marginHOU+10.6UTA−7.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
HOU+10.6
Scores 121.6, allows 109.9 over 17 games: +11.7 a game.
85% this season (+11.7) + 15% last season (+4.4) = +10.6
UTA−7.8
Scores 117.7, allows 125.4 over 19 games: −7.7 a game.
95% this season (−7.7) + 5% last season (−9.3) = −7.8
Offensive rating, last 10HOU122.2UTA115.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
HOU122.2scored, +7.4 vs league
| Factor | HOU | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.5% | −0.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.5% | +1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.225 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +7.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
UTA115.6scored, +0.8 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.1% | 54.5% | +1.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 12.5% | −1.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.221 | 0.225 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10HOU110.5UTA122.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
HOU110.5allowed, −4.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.5% | +1.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.8% | 12.5% | +1.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.213 | 0.225 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
UTA122.5allowed, +7.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.2% | 54.5% | −5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 12.5% | −2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.250 | 0.225 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.5
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
HOU 97.0 and UTA 104.0 → average 100.5 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)
Rotation points missingHOU16.4UTA0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
HOU16.4pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tari Eason | 10.0 | 18.8 | 4 |
| Steven Adams | 6.4 | 21.0 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
UTA0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-01 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestHOU1 daysUTA1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
HOU1day, back-to-back
Last played Nov 30 against UTA.
UTA1day, back-to-back
Last played Nov 30 against HOU.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
HOU
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | @UTA | 129–101 | 46-87 | 11-31 | 26-33 | 14 | – | 126.5 | 99.0 | 102.0 |
| Nov 26 | @GSW | 104–100 | 39-99 | 11-39 | 15-24 | 10 | 25 | 114.3 | 109.9 | 91.0 |
| Nov 24 | @PHX | 114–92 | 43-88 | 13-31 | 15-17 | 14 | 12 | 122.6 | 96.8 | 94.0 |
| Nov 21 | DEN | 109–112 | 41-93 | 14-36 | 13-20 | 14 | 18 | 116.0 | 119.1 | 94.0 |
| Nov 19 | @CLE | 114–104 | 41-90 | 9-24 | 23-27 | 13 | 16 | 117.5 | 107.2 | 97.0 |
| Nov 16 | ORL | 117–113 | 42-100 | 8-20 | 25-29 | 14 | 19 | 111.4 | 106.6 | 95.5 |
| Nov 14 | POR | 140–116 | 53-106 | 17-45 | 17-20 | 6 | 20 | 138.6 | 116.0 | 100.5 |
| Nov 12 | WAS | 135–112 | 51-96 | 17-35 | 16-23 | 10 | 20 | 136.4 | 112.0 | 99.5 |
| Nov 9 | @MIL | 122–115 | 48-90 | 10-26 | 16-21 | 17 | 20 | 127.1 | 118.6 | 96.5 |
| Nov 7 | @SAS | 110–121 | 39-85 | 13-27 | 19-21 | 23 | 17 | 111.1 | 119.8 | 100.0 |
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | HOU | 101–129 | 39-88 | 9-32 | 14-15 | 17 | – | 99.0 | 126.5 | 102.0 |
| Nov 28 | SAC | 128–119 | 42-87 | 13-40 | 31-40 | 12 | 13 | 124.3 | 115.5 | 103.0 |
| Nov 24 | @GSW | 117–134 | 47-99 | 11-36 | 12-18 | 14 | 14 | 110.4 | 126.4 | 106.0 |
| Nov 23 | LAL | 106–108 | 40-94 | 13-40 | 13-18 | 14 | 10 | 102.9 | 105.9 | 102.5 |
| Nov 21 | OKC | 112–144 | 38-79 | 16-38 | 20-24 | 27 | 12 | 107.7 | 138.5 | 104.0 |
| Nov 18 | @LAL | 126–140 | 48-92 | 13-45 | 17-18 | 18 | 8 | 118.9 | 130.8 | 106.5 |
| Nov 16 | CHI | 150–147 | 49-111 | 18-49 | 34-41 | 9 | 12 | 120.0 | 116.7 | 103.9 |
| Nov 13 | ATL | 122–132 | 45-92 | 19-44 | 13-21 | 24 | 14 | 113.0 | 122.2 | 108.0 |
| Nov 11 | IND | 152–128 | 51-92 | 19-42 | 31-35 | 14 | 13 | 147.6 | 125.5 | 102.5 |
| Nov 10 | MIN | 113–120 | 38-95 | 17-52 | 20-24 | 15 | 16 | 111.9 | 116.5 | 102.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | HOU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 125 | 133 |
| Field goals | 41–93 · 44.1% | 45–90 · 50.0% |
| Three-pointers | 10–34 · 29.4% | 14–35 · 40.0% |
| Free throws | 33–41 · 80.5% | 29–38 · 76.3% |
| Rebounds | 46 | 50 |
| Assists | 27 | 33 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 13 |
| Steals | 6 | 8 |
| Blocks | 8 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Utah Jazz
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (UTA) | −13 | +8 | +21 |
| Total points | 241 | 258 | +17 |
| HOU points | 127 | 125 | −2 |
| UTA points | 114 | 133 | +19 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 2025-26 | HOU at UTA | HOU 129 – 101 UTA |
| Apr 2 2024-25 | UTA at HOU | UTA 105 – 143 HOU |
| Mar 27 2024-25 | HOU at UTA | HOU 121 – 110 UTA |
| Feb 22 2024-25 | HOU at UTA | HOU 115 – 124 UTA |
| Apr 11 2023-24 | HOU at UTA | HOU 121 – 124 UTA |