2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls

Saturday, December 10, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 1–1@CHI 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DAL Dallas Mavericks	115	115	±0
CHI Chicago Bulls (home)	114	144	+30

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DAL	CHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1573	1476
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−28
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.8	−1.1
Games played this season	25	24
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.6	109.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.3	112.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	49.0	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1573CHI1476

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1573

Ended last season at 1615 → started this one at 1586
First 15 games: −14.8
Last 10 games: +1.8

LDEN97–98−5.9
L@BOS112–125−6.0
L@TOR100–105−6.2
L@MIL115–124−6.9
WGSW116–113+5.1
L@DET125–131−11.8
W@NYK121–100+18.6
WPHX130–111+15.3
W@DEN116–115+4.5
LMIL105–106−4.9

CHI1476

Ended last season at 1426 → started this one at 1444
First 14 games: +18.7
Last 10 games: +13.0

L@NOP110–124−6.6
LORL107–108−6.4
WBOS121–107+21.2
W@MIL118–113+11.8
L@OKC119–123−6.4
W@UTA114–107+12.4
L@PHX113–132−6.8
L@GSW111–119−4.2
L@SAC101–110−6.3
WWAS115–111+4.3

Season scoring marginDAL+2.8CHI−1.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+2.8

Scores 111.4, allows 108.6 over 25 games: +2.8 a game.

CHI−1.1

Scores 111.7, allows 112.8 over 24 games: −1.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL114.6CHI109.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

DAL114.6scored, +2.5 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.6%	54.0%	+7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.7%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.0%	23.9%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.209	−0.3
Everything else			−1.9

CHI109.3scored, −2.8 vs league

Factor	CHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.0%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.7%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.3%	23.9%	−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.209	−0.4
Everything else			−0.7

Defensive rating, last 10DAL114.3CHI112.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

DAL114.3allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.0%	−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.7%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	23.9%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.209	+0.0
Everything else			+0.1

CHI112.2allowed, +0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.0%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.7%	+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	23.9%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.209	+0.2
Everything else			−0.8

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 98.0 and CHI 102.1 → average 100.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingDAL49.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL49.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Luka Dončić	30.9	36.6	10
Josh Green	9.2	23.3	10
Maxi Kleber	8.9	26.6	8

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-10 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDAL1 daysCHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 9 against MIL.

CHI3days

Last played Dec 7 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 9	MIL	105–106	41-88	13-40	10-24	10	12	107.1	110.4	97.0
Dec 6	@DEN	116–115	36-72	17-36	27-31	15	4	118.4	117.3	98.0
Dec 5	PHX	130–111	44-84	20-41	22-26	12	10	135.4	113.3	97.0
Dec 3	@NYK	121–100	43-100	24-61	11-14	11	14	117.5	99.0	102.0
Dec 1	@DET	125–131	46-86	19-46	14-29	13	4	117.9	122.4	96.5
Nov 29	GSW	116–113	42-91	15-44	17-27	13	8	111.5	108.7	104.0
Nov 27	@MIL	115–124	41-80	17-41	16-25	13	6	116.2	127.8	98.0
Nov 26	@TOR	100–105	35-73	11-39	19-24	16	4	105.3	111.7	94.5
Nov 23	@BOS	112–125	44-82	11-31	13-21	14	5	114.3	128.9	97.5
Nov 20	DEN	97–98	35-78	15-42	12-21	12	6	102.1	103.2	95.0

CHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 7	WAS	115–111	45-90	10-23	15-17	19	6	107.5	104.7	106.5
Dec 4	@SAC	101–110	38-86	9-25	16-19	16	7	98.1	106.8	103.0
Dec 2	@GSW	111–119	43-93	9-27	16-24	12	6	102.8	109.2	108.5
Nov 30	@PHX	113–132	41-82	4-25	27-33	11	5	108.7	126.9	104.0
Nov 28	@UTA	114–107	43-93	6-22	22-25	7	13	115.2	111.5	97.5
Nov 25	@OKC	119–123	44-101	12-33	19-23	15	14	108.2	111.8	99.6
Nov 23	@MIL	118–113	43-87	18-42	14-18	13	5	114.6	108.7	103.5
Nov 21	BOS	121–107	46-89	14-29	15-20	11	8	117.5	104.9	102.5
Nov 18	ORL	107–108	41-89	5-21	20-25	11	13	109.2	111.3	97.5
Nov 16	@NOP	110–124	44-89	11-32	11-17	12	7	111.1	126.5	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

30 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +29 for CHI

403rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

26th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DAL	CHI
Final score	115	144
Field goals	41–90 · 45.6%	54–85 · 63.5%
Three-pointers	11–44 · 25.0%	19–34 · 55.9%
Free throws	22–26 · 84.6%	17–24 · 70.8%
Rebounds	37	44
Assists	24	33
Turnovers	8	8
Steals	5	8
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)	−1	+29	+30
Total points	229	259	+30
DAL points	115	115	±0
CHI points	114	144	+30

Recent form before this game