The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 11

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls

Monday, March 11, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DAL 2–2@CHI 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DAL 47 percent, CHI 53 percent. DAL Mavericks 47% proj. 116 · final 127 CHI Bulls · home 53% proj. 115 · final 92
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DAL Dallas Mavericks 116 127 +11
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 115 92 −23

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 47% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDALCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15231501
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +48
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.8−1.4
Games played this season 6464
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.9112.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.9115.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDAL1523CHI1501

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DAL1523

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1437 → started this one at 1453
  2. First 54 games: +83.5
  3. Last 10 games: −13.6
  • WSAS116–93+4.7
  • WPHX123–113+9.7
  • L@IND111–133−14.8
  • L@CLE119–121−2.3
  • W@TOR136–125+9.7
  • L@BOS110–138−6.6
  • LPHI116–120−9.9
  • LIND120–137−20.0
  • WMIA114–108+7.7
  • W@DET142–124+8.2

CHI1501

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1541 → started this one at 1530
  2. First 54 games: −30.5
  3. Last 10 games: +0.9
  • L@CLE105–108−1.9
  • LBOS112–129−8.3
  • W@NOP114–106+15.4
  • LDET95–105−23.2
  • WCLE132–123+13.2
  • LMIL97–113−13.6
  • W@SAC113–109+9.6
  • W@UTA119–117+5.2
  • W@GSW125–122+9.5
  • L@LAC102–112−5.0
Season scoring marginDAL+0.8CHI−1.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DAL+0.8

Scores 119.0, allows 118.2 over 64 games: +0.8 a game.

CHI−1.4

Scores 111.8, allows 113.2 over 64 games: −1.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DAL118.9CHI112.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

DAL118.9scored, +4.0 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.8%+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.5%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.6%24.2%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.198−0.6
Everything else+0.1

CHI112.6scored, −2.3 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.8%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.5%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%24.2%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.198−0.4
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10DAL119.9CHI115.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

DAL119.9allowed, +4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.8%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%11.5%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%24.2%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1870.198+0.3
Everything else−1.1

CHI115.7allowed, +0.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.8%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.5%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%24.2%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.198+0.3
Everything else−1.2
Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DAL 101.3 and CHI 97.0 → average 99.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingDAL0.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-11 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDAL2 daysCHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL2days

Last played Mar 9 against DET.

CHI2days

Last played Mar 9 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 9@DET142–12451-9214-3826-32144129.1112.7110.0
Mar 7MIA114–10840-8716-4118-23910118.8113.795.5
Mar 5IND120–13745-9313-3917-2199120.0135.6100.5
Mar 3PHI116–12040-8616-4120-231712118.4122.498.0
Mar 1@BOS110–13844-949-3413-18710110.0138.0100.0
Feb 28@TOR136–12552-9615-4317-211411127.1116.8107.0
Feb 27@CLE119–12148-9114-339-1555121.4124.797.5
Feb 25@IND111–13341-8714-3115-21158104.7126.7105.5
Feb 22PHX123–11343-9019-4418-211010128.1117.796.0
Feb 14SAS116–9349-9211-307-10158111.590.3103.5

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 9@LAC102–11237-8613-3515-19129107.4119.194.5
Mar 7@GSW125–12246-8716-3617-23147121.4117.3103.5
Mar 6@UTA119–11745-9017-3912-1577125.3120.696.0
Mar 4@SAC113–10942-8411-3218-2296122.8117.292.5
Mar 1MIL97–11336-8611-2714-16127103.2118.994.5
Feb 28CLE132–12344-11013-3731-381625112.8104.297.2
Feb 27DET95–10539-982-2915-18615100.0110.595.0
Feb 25@NOP114–10641-9513-4019-21912111.8106.0101.0
Feb 22BOS112–12944-9410-2814-161313112.0129.0100.0
Feb 14@CLE105–10838-8314-3315-17149109.4113.795.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave DAL, the winner
the forecast favored CHI
34 pts
margin miss
forecast −1, actual −35 for CHI
365th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
35th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDALCHI
Final score12792
Field goals51–93 · 54.8%35–89 · 39.3%
Three-pointers13–41 · 31.7%7–34 · 20.6%
Free throws12–15 · 80.0%15–22 · 68.2%
Rebounds4943
Assists3319
Turnovers613
Steals106
Blocks62

How the model does with these teams over time: Dallas Mavericks · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−1−35−34
Total points231219−12
DAL points116127+11
CHI points11592−23

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DAL44183629–127
CHI16262228–92

Recent form before this game

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 9 at DET W 142–124
Mar 7 vs MIA W 114–108
Mar 5 vs IND L 120–137
Mar 3 vs PHI L 116–120
Mar 1 at BOS L 110–138

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Mar 9 at LAC L 102–112
Mar 7 at GSW W 125–122
Mar 6 at UTA W 119–117
Mar 4 at SAC W 113–109
Mar 1 vs MIL L 97–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 1 2023-24 CHI at DAL CHI 105 – 114 DAL
Apr 7 2022-23 CHI at DAL CHI 115 – 112 DAL
Dec 10 2022-23 DAL at CHI DAL 115 – 144 CHI
Jan 9 2021-22 CHI at DAL CHI 99 – 113 DAL
Nov 10 2021-22 DAL at CHI DAL 107 – 117 CHI