2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
CHI 0–0@TOR 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | 115 | 92 | −23 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors (home) | 123 | 135 | +12 |
Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhy the model leans TOR
- Home court+2.1 TORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
- Team strength+3.5 TORElo TOR 1541, CHI 1379; season margin TOR +2.5, CHI −5.2.
- Recent form+2.6 TORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: TOR scores 115.8 and allows 113.3; CHI scores 108.7 and allows 119.5.
Together: TOR by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.
Team-by-team notes from the box scores
TOR hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +2 team. Their offense shoots 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −1.6.
CHI hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −5 team. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.7. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions.
Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.
How the projected margin was built
Points of home margin. Right of zero favors TOR; left favors CHI.
Every input the model received, with its effect
| Input | CHI | TOR | Effect, pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1379 | 1541 | +0.6 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +232 | +4.2 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −5.2 | +2.5 | +1.4 |
| Games played this season | 0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 108.7 | 115.8 | +1.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 119.5 | 113.3 | +1.4 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 101.7 | +0.3 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No | +0.0 |
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
| Input | Value | TOR pts | CHI pts | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo gap incl. home court | 231.5 | +1.81 | −2.41 | +4.23 |
| Games played (away) | 0.0 | +0.20 | +1.94 | −1.75 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (away) | 119.5 | +1.31 | +0.14 | +1.18 |
| Season scoring margin (away) | -5.2 | +0.70 | −0.39 | +1.09 |
| Games played (home) | 0.0 | +0.53 | +1.52 | −0.98 |
| Rotation points missing (away) | 0.0 | −0.36 | +0.50 | −0.86 |
| Rotation points missing (home) | 0.0 | +0.56 | −0.20 | +0.76 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (away) | 108.7 | −0.17 | −0.73 | +0.56 |
| Offensive rating, last 10 (home) | 115.8 | +0.27 | −0.13 | +0.40 |
| Elo rating (away) | 1379.0 | +0.30 | −0.09 | +0.39 |
| Combined pace, last 10 | 101.7 | +3.24 | +2.92 | +0.32 |
| Season scoring margin (home) | 2.5 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.31 |
| Elo rating (home) | 1540.5 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.23 |
| Rest days (home) | 5.0 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.22 |
| Home series wins | 0.0 | +0.24 | +0.02 | +0.21 |
| Defensive rating, last 10 (home) | 113.3 | −0.20 | −0.37 | +0.17 |
| Rest days (away) | 5.0 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.17 |
| Back-to-back (home) | 0 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 |
| Series pressure | 0.0 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Elimination game | 0 | ±0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 |
| Back-to-back (away) | 0 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 | ±0.00 |
| Baseline (average output) | 114.4 | 112.4 | +2.10 |
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHI1379TOR15414.8 pts toward TOR
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHI1379
- Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
- No games played yet this season.
TOR1541
- Ended last season at 1554 → started this one at 1541
- No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginCHI−5.2TOR+2.51.3 pts toward CHI
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHI−5.2
No games played yet this season.
0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−5.2) = −5.2
TOR+2.5
No games played yet this season.
0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.5) = +2.5
Offensive rating, last 10CHI108.7TOR115.81.0 pts toward TOR
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
CHI108.7scored, −5.9 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.6% | 54.5% | −3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.4% | 12.2% | −1.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.1% | 26.1% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.211 | 0.210 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −1.8 |
TOR115.8scored, +1.2 vs league
| Factor | TOR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.8% | 54.5% | +1.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.5% | 26.1% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.232 | 0.210 | +0.6 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.5TOR113.31.4 pts toward TOR
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).
CHI119.5allowed, +5.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.6% | 54.5% | −3.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.2% | −0.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.1% | 26.1% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.186 | 0.210 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | −2.1 |
TOR113.3allowed, −1.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.5% | −1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.6% | 12.2% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.5% | 26.1% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.226 | 0.210 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
Pace, last 10average 101.70.3 pts toward TOR
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
CHI 106.5 and TOR 96.8 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)
Rotation points missingCHI0.0TOR0.00.1 pts toward CHI
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHI0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.
TOR0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.
RestCHI5 daysTOR5 days0.1 pts toward TOR
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHI5days
Last played Apr 12 against DAL (192 days, capped at 5).
TOR5days
Last played May 3 against CLE (171 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | @DAL | 128–149 | 52-106 | 10-38 | 14-19 | 13 | 11 | 114.3 | 134.2 | 111.5 |
| Apr 10 | ORL | 103–127 | 38-87 | 10-39 | 17-26 | 20 | 10 | 95.4 | 118.7 | 107.5 |
| Apr 9 | @WAS | 119–108 | 43-93 | 9-30 | 24-25 | 15 | 13 | 111.2 | 100.9 | 107.0 |
| Apr 7 | @WAS | 129–98 | 46-94 | 15-45 | 22-27 | 13 | 9 | 119.4 | 89.9 | 108.5 |
| Apr 5 | PHX | 110–120 | 41-91 | 10-39 | 18-23 | 18 | 14 | 105.8 | 117.6 | 103.0 |
| Apr 3 | @NYK | 96–136 | 35-81 | 11-35 | 15-26 | 16 | 9 | 96.0 | 136.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 1 | IND | 126–145 | 47-97 | 13-39 | 19-26 | 20 | 12 | 114.5 | 134.3 | 109.0 |
| Mar 30 | @SAS | 114–129 | 43-93 | 13-44 | 15-21 | 10 | 7 | 111.8 | 125.2 | 102.5 |
| Mar 28 | @MEM | 124–125 | 41-82 | 10-33 | 32-43 | 23 | 10 | 110.7 | 112.6 | 111.5 |
| Mar 27 | @OKC | 113–131 | 41-98 | 15-47 | 16-21 | 12 | 10 | 107.6 | 126.0 | 104.5 |
TOR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | @CLE | 102–114 | 38-87 | 8-28 | 18-26 | 14 | 7 | 104.1 | 116.3 | 98.0 |
| May 1 | CLE | 112–110 | 40-87 | 13-36 | 19-23 | 15 | 10 | 110.9 | 107.8 | 91.9 |
| Apr 29 | @CLE | 120–125 | 44-95 | 15-38 | 17-25 | 14 | 15 | 118.8 | 122.5 | 101.5 |
| Apr 26 | CLE | 93–89 | 31-97 | 4-30 | 27-36 | 11 | 21 | 94.9 | 91.8 | 97.5 |
| Apr 23 | CLE | 126–104 | 50-87 | 14-23 | 12-21 | 11 | 11 | 132.6 | 108.3 | 95.5 |
| Apr 20 | @CLE | 105–115 | 42-83 | 7-26 | 14-17 | 22 | 12 | 107.1 | 116.2 | 98.5 |
| Apr 18 | @CLE | 113–126 | 37-71 | 13-27 | 26-35 | 17 | 4 | 115.3 | 127.3 | 98.5 |
| Apr 12 | BKN | 136–101 | 51-80 | 12-27 | 22-29 | 10 | 3 | 136.0 | 101.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 10 | @NYK | 95–112 | 36-73 | 10-25 | 13-20 | 17 | 7 | 102.2 | 120.4 | 93.0 |
| Apr 9 | MIA | 128–114 | 44-86 | 13-30 | 27-34 | 4 | 10 | 136.2 | 121.3 | 94.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 92 | 135 |
| Field goals | 27–85 · 31.8% | 44–98 · 44.9% |
| Three-pointers | 4–36 · 11.1% | 10–31 · 32.3% |
| Free throws | 34–47 · 72.3% | 37–46 · 80.4% |
| Rebounds | 57 | 51 |
| Assists | 16 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 27 | 10 |
| Steals | 6 | 15 |
| Blocks | 5 | 6 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Toronto Raptors
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (TOR) | +8 | +43 | +35 |
| Total points | 238 | 227 | −11 |
| CHI points | 115 | 92 | −23 |
| TOR points | 123 | 135 | +12 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 2025-26 | TOR at CHI | TOR 139 – 109 CHI |
| Feb 19 2025-26 | TOR at CHI | TOR 110 – 101 CHI |
| Feb 5 2025-26 | CHI at TOR | CHI 107 – 123 TOR |
| Apr 1 2024-25 | TOR at CHI | TOR 118 – 137 CHI |
| Feb 28 2024-25 | TOR at CHI | TOR 115 – 125 CHI |